100 “would have turned out to be right”:
Julian Lincoln Simon. (1995)
The State of Humanity
. Oxford, UK: Wiley-Blackwell, pp. 644-45.
100 to 75.7 years in 1994:
Kevin M. White and Samuel H. Preston. (1996) “How Many Americans Are Alive Because of Twentieth-Century Improvements in Mortality?”
Population and Development Review,
22 (3), p. 415.
http://www.jstor.org/stable/2137714
.
101 “but simply part of our reality”:
Simon Conway Morris. (2004)
Life's Solution: Inevitable Humans in a Lonely Universe
. New York: Cambridge University Press, p. xiii.
6. Ordained Becoming
104 “may well have found them all”:
Richard Dawkins. (2004)
The Ancestor's Tale: A Pilgrimage to the Dawn of Evolution
. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, p. 588.
105 species coinhabiting Earth:
W. Hardy Eshbaugh. (1995) “Systematics Agenda 2000: An Historical Perspective.”
Biodiversity and Conservation,
4 (5).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00056336
.
105 “Evolution is remarkably reproducible”:
Sean Carroll. (2008) “The Making of the Fittest DNA and the Ultimate Forensic Record of Evolution.”
Paw Prints,
p. 154.
107 many of which evolved independently:
John Maynard Smith and Eors Szathmary. (1997)
The Major Transitions in Evolution
. New York: Oxford University Press.
107 which uses a bubble to breathe:
Richard Dawkins. (2004)
The Ancestor's Tale: A Pilgrimage to the Dawn of Evolution
. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, p. 592.
109 “independently reevolved fins”:
George McGhee. (2008) “Convergent Evolution: A Periodic Table of Life?”
The Deep Structure of Biology
, ed. Simon Conway Morris. West Conshohocken, PA: Templeton Foundation, p. 19.
111 Size Ratio in Life:
Data from K. J. Niklas. (1994) “The Scaling of Plant and Animal Body Mass, Length, and Diameter.”
Evolution
, 48 (1), pp. 48-49.
http://www.jstor.org/stable/2410002
.
112 “rates and times are remarkably similar”:
Erica Klarreich. (2005) “Life on the ScalesâSimple Mathematical Relationships Underpin Much of Biology and Ecology.”
Science News
, 167 (7).
113 “pass examinations on Arcturus”:
David Darling. (2001)
Life Everywhere: The Maverick Science of Astrobiology
. New York: Basic Books, p. 14.
115 “largely incapable of self-replication”:
Kenneth D. James and Andrew D. Ellington. (1995) “The Search for Missing Links Between Self-Replicating Nucleic Acids and the RNA World.”
Origins of Life and Evolution of Biospheres
, 25 (6).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01582021
.
116 “strangest molecule in the universe”:
Simon Conway Morris. (2004)
Life's Solution: Inevitable Humans in a Lonely Universe
. New York: Cambridge University Press.
117 “functional groups used in life”:
Norman R. Pace. (2001) “The Universal Nature of Biochemistry.”
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,
98 (3).
http://www.pnas.org/content/98/3/805.short
.
117 several billion years of evolution have produced it?:
David Darling. (2001)
Life Everywhere: The Maverick Science of Astrobiology.
New York: Basic Books, p. 130.
120 “encoded implicitly in the genome”:
Lynn Helena Caporale. (2003) “Natural Selection and the Emergence of a Mutation Phenotype: An Update of the Evolutionary Synthesis Considering Mechanisms That Affect Genomic Variation.”
Annual Review of Microbiology
, 57 (1).
122 “the embodiment of contingency”:
Stephen Jay Gould. (1989)
Wonderful Life: The Burgess Shale and Nature of History
. New York: W. W. Norton, p. 320.
123 The Triad of Evolution:
Inspired by Stephen Jay Gould. (2002)
The Structure of Evolutionary Theory
. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, p. 1052; designed by the author.
124 “walk through genetic drift”:
Simon Conway Morris. (2004)
Life's Solution: Inevitable Hum
a
ns in a Lonely Universe
. New York: Cambridge University Press, p. 132.
124 “back hundreds of thousands of years”:
Stephen Jay Gould. (2002)
The Structure of Evolutionary Theory.
Cambridge: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, p. 1085.
124 if the tape of life was rewound:
Michael Denton. (1998)
Nature's Destiny: How the Laws of Biology Reveal Purpose in the Universe
. New York: Free Press, p. 283.
125 “are rigged in favor of life”:
Paul Davies. (1998)
The Fifth Miracle: The Search for the Origin of Life
. New York: Simon & Schuster, p. 264.
125 “predetermined by the interatomic forces”:
Ibid., p. 252.
125 “seem to direct the synthesis”:
Ibid., p. 253.
126 “but we the expected”:
Stuart A. Kauffman. (1995)
At Home in the Universe
. New York: Oxford University Press, p. 8.
126 “an inevitable process”:
Manfred Eigen. (1971) “Self-organization of Matter and the Evolution of Biological Macromolecules.”
Naturwissenschaften
, 58 (10), p. 519.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00623322
.
126 “into the fabric of the universe”:
Christian de Duve. (1995)
Vital Dust: Life as a Cosmic Imperative
. New York: Basic Books, pp. xv, xviii.
126 “becomes increasingly inevitable”:
Simon Conway Morris. (2004)
Life's Solution: Inevitable Humans in a Lonely Universe.
New York: Cambridge University Press, p. xiii.
127 with details left to chance:
Richard E. Lenski. (2008) “Chance and Necessity in Evolution.”
The Deep Structure of Biology
, ed. Simon Conway Morris. West Conshohocken, PA: Templeton Foundation.
127 “lines on similar phenotypes”:
Sean C. Sleight, Christian Orlic, et al. (2008) “Genetic Basis of Evolutionary Adaptation by Escherichia Coli to Stressful Cycles of Freezing, Thawing and Growth.”
Genetics
, 180 (1).
http://www.genetics.org/cgi/content/abstract/180/1/431
.
127 “all outcomes would be different”:
Sean Carroll. (2008)
The Making of the Fittest: DNA and the Ultimate Forensic Record of Evolution
. New York: W. W. Norton.
128 precisely, but elegantly, backward:
Stephen Jay Gould. (1989)
Wonderful Life: The Burgess Shale and Nature of History.
New York: W. W. Norton, p. 320.
128 Buckminster Fuller once said:
Richard Buckminster Fuller, Jerome Agel, et al. (1970)
I Seem to Be a Verb
. New York: Bantam Books.
7. Convergence
132 strung across our countryside:
Christopher A. Voss. (1984) “Multiple Independent Invention and the Process of Technological Innovation.”
Technovation
, 2 p. 172.
132 “claimed by more than one person”:
William F. Ogburn and Dorothy Thomas. (1975) “Are Inventions Inevitable? A Note on Social Evolution.”
A Reader in Culture Change,
eds. Ivan A. Brady and Barry L. Isaac. New York: Schenkman Publishing, p. 65.
132 the efficacy of vaccinations:
Bernhard J. Stern. (1959) “The Frustration of Technology.”
Historical Sociology: The Selected Papers of Bernhard J. Stern
. New York: The Citadel Press, p. 121.
132 came upon the same process:
Ibid.
133 occurred within a month or so:
Dean Keith Simonton. (1979) “Multiple Discovery and Invention: Zeitgeist, Genius, or Chance?”
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
, 37 (9), p. 1604.
133 “is not the electric railroad inevitable?”:
William F. Ogburn and Dorothy Thomas. (1975) “Are Inventions Inevitable? A Note on Social Evolution.”
A Reader in Culture Change,
eds. Ivan A. Brady and Barry L. Isaac. New York: Schenkman Publishing, p. 66.
134 known in statistics as a Poisson distribution:
Dean Keith Simonton. (1978) “Independent Discovery in Science and Technology: A Closer Look at the Poisson Distribution.”
Social Studies of Science
, 8 (4).
134 greatest discoverers buy lots of tickets:
Dean Keith Simonton. (1979) “Multiple Discovery and Invention: Zeitgeist, Genius, or Chance?”
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,
37 (9).
135 within months of each other in 1977:
Adam B. Jaffe, Manuel Trajtenberg, et al. (2000, April) “The Meaning of Patent Citations: Report on the NBER/Case-Western Reserve Survey of Patentees.” Nber Working Paper No. W7631.
135 “far above the accidents of personality”:
Alfred L. Kroeber. (1917) “The Super-organic.”
American Anthropologist
, 19 (2) p. 199.
135 but never quite reached it:
Spencer Weart. (1977) “Secrecy, Simultaneous Discovery, and the Theory of Nuclear Reactors.”
American Journal of Physics
, 45 (11), p. 1057.
136 the same body by different means:
Dean Keith Simonton. (1979) “Multiple Discovery and Invention: Zeitgeist, Genius, or Chance?”
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
, 37 (9), p. 1608.
136 “singleton discoveries are imminent multiples”:
Robert K. Merton. (1961) “Singletons and Multiples in Scientific Discovery: A Chapter in the Sociology of Science.”
Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society,
105 (5), p. 480.
136 “to investigate something else”:
Augustine Brannigan. (1983) “Historical Distributions of Multiple Discoveries and Theories of Scientific Change.”
Social Studies of Science
, 13 (3), p. 428.
138 or even the patent office examiner:
Adam B. Jaffe, Manuel Trajtenberg, et al. (2000) “The Meaning of Patent Citations: Report on the Nber/Case-Western Reserve Survey of Patentees.” National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2000, p. 10.
138 “involve near-simultaneous invention”:
Mark Lemley and Colleen V. Chien. (2003) “Are the U.S. Patent Priority Rules Really Necessary?”
Hastings Law Journal
, 54 (5), p. 1300.
139 “a regular feature of innovation”:
Adam B. Jaffe, Manuel Trajtenberg, et al. (2000) “The Meaning of Patent Citations: Report on the Nber/Case-Western Reserve Survey of Patentees.” National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2000, p. 1325.
139 inventors of incandescent bulbs prior to Edison:
Robert Douglas Friedel, Paul Israel, et al. (1986)
Edison's Electric Light.
New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press.
139 Varieties of the Lightbulb:
Collage by the author from archival materials.
141 “merely an efficient source of insight”:
Malcolm Gladwell. (2008, May 12) “In the Air: Who Says Big Ideas Are Rare?”
New Yorker
, 84 (13).
141 “one third of our ideas”:
Nathan Myhrvold. (2009) In discussion with the author.
141 “of when, not if”:
Jay Walker. (2009) In discussion with the author.
142 all had the same idea:
W. Daniel Hillis. (2009) In discussion with the author.
142 The Inverted Pyramid of Invention:
Inspired by W. Daniel Hillis; designed by the author.
144 “merits of both investigators as being comparable”:
Abraham Pais. (2005)
“Subtle Is the Lord . . .”: The Science and the Life of Albert Einstein
. Oxford: Oxford University Press, p. 153.