Authors: Jacques Attali
a brief history of the future
T
o elaborate on what the future may hold, I must first paint — in broad strokes — the history of the past. We shall see that it is shot through with invariables, that history possesses a kind of structure which allows us to foresee the architecture of the decades ahead.
Since the dawn of time, every human group has formed around a source of wealth, a language, a territory, a philosophy, or a leader. Three powers have always coexisted: the religious, which sets the hours of prayer, marks the agricultural seasons, and moderates access to the afterlife; the military, which organizes the hunt, defense, and conquest; and the mercantile, which produces, finances, and markets the fruits of human labor. Each of these powers masters time by controlling the instruments for measuring it — astronomical observatories, hourglasses, and clocks.
In every human cosmogony, three gods overshadow all the others, elevating a dominant trinity to the apex of power: the Romans called them Jupiter, Mars, and Quirinus — the god of gods, the god of war, and the god of money. Below them was the domain of ordinary men. And below them, a different power existed within and alongside all the others, and may one
day displace them all — the power of the feminine, which ensures the succession of the generations and presides over the transmission of knowledge.
Turn by turn, each of the three dominant powers (religious, military, and mercantile) controls wealth. Thus we may tell the history of humankind as the succession of three great political orders: the
ritual order
, in which authority is essentially religious; the
imperial order
, in which power is primarily military; and the
mercantile order
, in which the paramount group is the one that controls the economy. The first group’s ideal is theological, the second’s territorial, while the third’s is individualistic.
In each of these orders, a society remains stable so long as the dominant group controls the distribution of wealth. Within the ritual order, this wealth pays for sacrifices; in the imperial order, it finances monument building; in the mercantile order, it goes into productive investments. And in all three orders, defense of executive power is a priority. Control of wealth by the dominant group is threatened by wars, natural disasters, external levies, and competition. To retain its hold on power, the dominant group seeks to implement a technical improvement to its own advantage, to exploit the weak, or to expand the space it dominates. If it fails, another dominant group takes its place.
Then, when even the legitimacy of its authority is challenged, a new order is established, with new powers, new knowledge, new ways of expending its surpluses, new geopolitical power relationships. Turn by turn, the master becomes the slave, the soldier replaces the priest, the merchant replaces the soldier.
Naturally, such evolutions do not proceed in neat stages: at every moment the three centers of power coexist, with premature advances and retreats.
Here now is the history of these orders and the manner of their birth and decline. From this account, extrapolating from facts seemingly trivial and insignificant, we will be able to identify the laws of history. It is essential that we understand these laws, for they will still be at work in the future and will enable us to predict its course.
To establish these laws we must start from our very earliest knowledge of humankind. This will enable us to understand that the same power — that of man’s progressive liberation from every constraint — is still on the march.
Some 3.8 billion years ago, life emerges in the ocean depths, and 350 million years ago on dry land. Around seven million years ago, according to the most recent discoveries, two early primates (Toumai in Chad and
Orrorin
in Kenya) climb down from the trees — doubtless after a drought — and stand upright on their two legs. Two million years later, another genus of primate,
Australopithecus
, also comes down from the trees to walk the landscapes of eastern and southern Africa. Three million years later, in the same region, certain of its descendants,
Homo habilis
and
Homo rudolfensis
, creatures selected by the demands of bipedal movement, adopt a more upright posture, and can therefore
support a heavier brain. Gatherers, scavengers, and parasites, they learn to chip stones for use as tools, and begin their walk from territory to territory across the African continent.
The only survivors are the primates best adapted to wandering; the only progress comes through hunter-gatherer techniques compatible with movement.
A million and a half years ago, still in East Africa and shoulder to shoulder with primate species already in existence,
Homo ergaster
appears. He is even better adapted than the others to long journeys. Still somewhat stooped in stance, he is shaped by movement: he loses his fur and he can run. He even seems to have acquired the rudiments of speech.
A million years later a descendant of
Homo ergaster
evolves and gives birth to another species of primate: the very first to leave East Africa. In the space of a few dozen millennia, he explores the rest of Africa, Europe, Central Asia, India, Indonesia, and China.
A hundred thousand years later, two other primates are born (most likely still in Africa) —
Homo sapiens
and
Homo heidelbergensis
, still nomadic, and even better adapted for walking than their predecessors. They hold themselves more upright, they possess larger brains, and they boast greater sophistication in language. Their only tools are still chipped flint. Utterly at the mercy of the forces of nature, of rain, wind, and thunder, they see in those phenomena the manifestation of superior powers. They do not yet bury their dead, but their still precarious dwellings become stronger. All these primates — neighbors but not kin — coexist without interbreeding.
Unlike any other animal species, they begin to transmit knowledge from generation to generation. Lesson for the future: transmission is a condition of progress.
Around 700,000 years before our era, in China and Africa,
Homo sapiens
masters the lightning and learns how to make fire. He is now capable of cooking vegetables, thus providing better nourishment for his brain. He also realizes that he can summon certain natural forces to his service. This is a considerable leap. He devises the first footwear, sews man’s first garments, and penetrates Europe, that cold, forest-shrouded continent.
The lineage of
Homo sapiens
splits into several branches. One of them evolves into
Homo neandertalis
. Around 300,000 years ago, he roams across Africa, Europe, and Asia. For the first time, he builds sophisticated huts wherever he goes, and he buries his dead. In Europe, still cut off by Alpine and Baltic glaciers, Neanderthals coexist with the other primates, neither mingling with nor replacing them.
It was doubtless at this time (300,000 years ago) that cannibalism began, not as an act of violence but as a ritual appropriation of the strength of the dead. Even today, we detect its vestiges in the human relationship with all levels of consumption.
Homo sapiens
also discovers that procreation is a consequence of the sex act, and that both partners have a role to play. The status of the sexes is now more clearly defined. Males live together, never changing tribes. Women, on the other hand — perhaps to avoid the incest that might weaken the group — leave the tribe at puberty, or at least distance themselves from it in order to have a space of their
own, perhaps inside the tribal territory. Sexuality and reproduction start to be viewed separately, and a baleful historical chapter begins.
Around 160,000 years ago, still in Africa and on another evolutionary branch of
Homo sapiens
, the first modern man appears, the physical and intellectual fruit of the demands levied on nomads —
Homo sapiens sapiens
. His brain is much more sophisticated than that of the other primates. He is organized into vaster groups, in which women are responsible for raising children. For him everything is living. He buries his dead, and cannibalism is no doubt still very prevalent. Average life expectancy is less than twenty-five years. In the Middle East as in Europe, human groups wander. They accumulate nothing, save nothing, keep nothing in reserve. They own nothing that cannot be transported — fire, tools, weapons, clothing, knowledge, languages, rites, stories. Now begins trading in objects, women, and prisoners — the first markets. And no doubt the beginnings of slavery.
Around 85,000 years ago, the world climate becomes colder, and
Homo sapiens sapiens
builds less rudimentary shelters in which he lives for longer periods. He travels less and still coexists with several other species of primate. These diverse primates fight one another for shelter, women, or hunting areas. Their conflicts obey a few simple principles, their authenticity established for us in rediscovered vestiges — terrify, launch surprise attacks, cut the enemy’s lines of communication, leave him no respite. Betraying allies is common, and so are engaging in simulated flight and attacking from behind. Cannibalism is still abroad, its aim still ingestion of the
strength of the ancestors and ritualization of the human relationship with death. Eating life to evade death, an instinct that still prevails today.
About 45,000 years ago, the primate lives in caves in winter and spends his summers in huts. He makes increasingly specialized tools. Work is divided among members of the group — and with it comes unemployment for those who no longer directly produce their own food.
About the same time, the climate warms. Like the other animals, primates leave their shelters and begin to wander again. Now
Homo sapiens sapiens
penetrates Europe, Asia, and even Australia, which (in an extraordinary marine pilgrimage reaching far beyond the horizon) might already have been visited by other primates. He also reaches the Americas, perhaps by crossing the land bridge on the Bering Strait. In Europe, one branch of
Homo sapiens sapiens
(now known as Cro-Magnon man) encounters
Homo neandertalis
, who has been there for 250,000 years and is dominant every-where. These diverse primates coexist for more than ten millennia, still wandering over vast territories they leave only in case of dire need.
Thirty thousand years ago, quite rapidly and without our knowing exactly why, every species of primate (including
Homo neandertalis
) vanishes — with the exception of
Homo sapiens sapiens
.
Henceforth he alone will be able to transmit his knowledge from generation to generation. Man’s history can begin. Everything that he has learned until now, over two million years, will serve him to build what we are. And what we will become.
At that moment, 30,000 years ago, certain humans begin to dream of an ideal afterworld, where every form of scarcity has disappeared and where they will be able to meet their ancestors. At the same time, the idea of a supreme and vital power emerges, of a God who at first stands alone. Cannibalism begins to lose ground to its own ritualization in religious sacrifice — devouring the body of a man sent to God in hopes of drawing closer to Him. Notions of ownership are clarified; languages diversify; work divisions become more complicated. One builds huts, another sews clothing or carves stones, while still others manufacture tools and weapons, hunt, tell stories, care for one another, pray. Men seize power over women, giving responsibility over their mothers and sisters to brothers and cousins. Vetoes evolve, making it possible to curtail violence. Members of a group still help one another, work together, raise their children together, eat meals together. But they can no longer hunt or gather, or communally consume certain animals and certain plants declared taboo, nor above all can they enjoy sexual relations among themselves — for since incest is forbidden, women can remain within the group. Lesson for the future: the sacred legitimizes taboos.
Life expectancy has risen above thirty years. Man begins finding time to share what he knows with future generations. This wish to transmit is also what increasingly sets him apart from all other animal species.
Man slowly learns to split the idea of God into several categories, dictated by His various manifestations
in nature — fire, wind, earth, rain, and so on. Polytheism is thus a religious construct inherited from a primitive monotheism. And the sacred helps found policy. The ritual order begins. Now man envisages accompanying his dead into the afterlife in sophisticated tombs with ceremonies, offerings, sacrifices to the deceased. His aim is to win from the gods (whom he will shortly encounter) a promise of protection for the living. In each clan or tribe, a leader — simultaneously priest and healer — masters violence by assigning to each person a particular relationship with the sacred. Every chief is master of taboos, of the calendar, of hunting, and of force. Cosmogonies designate scapegoats, who also serve as intermediaries with the beyond. Song and flute music are the first means of communicating with these intermediaries. Labyrinths are the first metaphoric representations of these voyages.
Objects made by men are, in primitive societies, seen as living beings, children of their makers. Trading them, seeking to establish equivalencies among them, is like the exchange of slaves, hostages, or women. Virtually everywhere on earth, this trade in manufactured objects becomes a kind of hostage exchange — a source of violence if left uncurbed. It is often, in many cultures, ritualized by the duty of silence imposed on participants in the exchange: the silent market. Lessons for the future: speech may become a lethal weapon, when it is used for calumny; if left unbalanced, the exchange may become frustrating and therefore dangerous.
Twenty thousand years ago, the most advanced of these last primates, who still lead nomadic lives, settle in the Middle East, whose climate is now particularly
hospitable. They find, in great abundance and growing in nature, all kinds of storable goods (flax, wheat, barley, peas, and lentils) and animals to capture (dogs, sheep, hogs, cows, horses). Some groups now settle for considerable periods in places where they build the first stone houses. The sacred accompanies them, and certain gods are allotted plots of land.