Authors: Andy Holland
"Well, don't keep us waiting, boy. What is it?" Prince Henry sounded impatient, but was clearly interested.
"The second flaw is based on the assumption that our numbers are comparable to theirs. If they have the same size population as us, and lose more in battle than we do, we grow stronger than they do. If their numbers are higher, then they may actually get stronger than we do."
"Eh, that doesn't make sense," Lord Lance replied, shaking his head.
"I'm not following either," Lord Daniel agreed. "Please, could you explain what you mean, John?"
"Perhaps I could illustrate better with an example. Let's say both sides have equal numbers, we will say a thousand each."
"A bit off in your census there, boy," the prince said with a laugh. "Some zeroes missing for a start!"
"Yes, your majesty, but the maths is easier to explain this way. May I continue?"
"Be my guest," the prince replied insincerely.
"So, with a thousand each, let's say that each year they gain fifty through reproduction, and one side loses forty, the reds, and the other side fifty, the blues."
"Through reproduction!" Lord Jeremy laughed. "He must be a hit with the girls in your class, eh Crystal? Such a way with words!"
"Go on, John," Lord Lance said, irritated by the interruption.
"In that scenario, and is the assumption that has always been made, our population would remain stable, and their population would drop one percent each year."
"Agreed," Lord Daniel said. "Go on, although I'm starting to see where you're going but I think you've made an incorrect assumption as well."
"Let's change the numbers. Let's double the size of the blues. That would also double their population growth. So each year they gain a hundred, and lose sixty, with a net gain of forty or four percent growth, while the red population remains stable."
"Come on, boy!" the prince shouted. "Do you expect us to believe that the blue population is double ours?"
"It doesn't need to be for the argument to work. Just more than twenty percent bigger."
"Yes, but the other numbers are off as well, John," Lord Daniel pointed out. "We don't lose five percent of our population a year in attacks; it's nowhere near that number. And our population must grow more than that in a year."
"No, I'm not so sure about that. I think our population has been pretty stable for a while now," Lord Robert commented. "I expect our Keeper of Records would be able to tell us."
"I'm afraid Lord Robert is quite right. It's hard to tell without examining several sets of information, as the censuses are only carried out nationwide each time we have a new king, but John recently did a thorough study for me and if anything, we've had a slight decrease in population over the last twenty years."
"Impossible!" Lord Jeremy exclaimed in disbelief. "There have been huge increases in the number of people living in not just the Fire City but in all the towns in the West."
"Yes, you may not have realised this, but your principality doesn't border any of our neighbours," Lord Lance pointed out coolly. "We bear the brunt of the attacks and clearly our losses outstrip your gains. You enjoy the benefit of our protection, without returning much in the way of troops. And that's not without even considering internal migration to the west."
"Oh, this old argument again. We provide plenty to you in resources. We pay our way," Lord Jeremy argued, clearly riled by Lord Lance.
"Yes, you do provide resources. If only we could buy our way out of our duty."
Lord Jeremy began to respond angrily but was interrupted by Prince Henry.
"My Lords, my Lords, let us not have this discussion in front of the ladies and the children. The boy has made some interesting arguments but I don't think…"
"What mistake do you think he made?" Lord Robert asked Lord Daniel, cutting the prince off. Crystal was surprised at her father. Surely that wasn't wise.
"Just about their numbers," Lord Daniel replied. "I can't see how he thinks they've grown so much more than ours. They've been taking even more losses than us, and fought a big war with the Greens just twenty years ago. If anything, we should outnumber them, as we've always had comparable numbers."
"Fair point, John. Had you considered that?" Lord Robert asked.
John nodded. "I have, and there a couple of things that make me think they've grown more than us, and these are both quite worrying observations. Firstly, there were a couple of very old reports from scouts sent deep into Blue territory. These scouts observed Blue Dragons training for combat, and noticed something unusual. None of the troops were female." John paused to let that information soak in.
"Yes, I did remember hearing about that," Lord Lance commented. "I was personally leading counter attacks at the time. How is that significant?"
"Well, this report coincided with the time when they we're kidnapping our girls. I think they were adopting a long term strategy, saving their women from combat so they could concentrate on having children. It seems quite likely that the war with the Greens was fought without using any of their women, so hardly any would have been lost. I also think they were kidnapping our girls to boost their numbers. Every child produced by a blue father will be a Blue Dragon as well."
"Yes, but their husbands are still dying in battle," Lord Jeremy pointed out. "It takes two to reproduce, as you like to put it, don't you know?"
"You're assuming they follow the same society rules as we do," John retorted. "There is nothing to stop them taking two or more wives."
"I expect you know something about that in the West," Lord Daniel muttered. Lord Jeremy gave him a cool smile but didn't reply.
"Putting all these facts together, I've come to a conclusion which is very worrying, and fits with what we observe," John continued. "We've always assumed that not much changed after the war between the Blues and Greens, maybe just a small territory gain by the Greens. What if that was completely wrong? No one has seen a Green Dragon since that war. What if they were completely annihilated and the Blues now have all of their territory?"
"Come on, John. That's a bit far-fetched isn't it?" Lord Karl said, clearly unimpressed.
"I think you've let your imagination run away with you," the prince told him, chuckling to the others.
John shook his head. "The more you look at it, the likelier it appears. Examine the facts. The Greens have never been seen since. The Blues have shifted their attacks northward, drawing our attention away from the south, where they would have been rebuilding. They appear to have been concentrating on population growth shortly after the war, and if anything, that was planned before the war. How would they feed these new mouths? Easy if they have all that fertile ground the Greens used to hold, and I'm not sure if you are aware, but the land the Greens used to control is very fertile, just like the neighbouring land in our southern principality. That's how the Greens were able to sustain such a large population despite holding a much smaller territory than us or the Blues. The Blues planned both the war and what to do next, building up the population to expand into their newly captured territory and to prepare for their next conquest, wiping us out. It's just a matter of time before they attack."
There was a long pause after he finished speaking, finally interrupted by John's guardian.
"Well, there's an easy way to determine whether John is right or not," he pointed out.
"What's that?" Crystal asked, speaking for the first time. She saw her mother frown at her.
"Send scouts into Green Dragon territory," Lord Rupert replied, seeing where the Keeper was going. "Something we haven't done for a long time, but that in itself is no reason not to do it."
"Couldn't that be seen as an act of aggression?" Lord Daniel asked. "We've managed to avoid fighting them for a long time now."
"Please, I must object," the prince said loudly. "Discussing the boy's wild ideas is one thing, but any military discussions must be restricted to our council meeting afterwards. These things are not for the ears of ladies and children." He smiled patronisingly at John.
"You're not taking this seriously?" Lady Sapphire asked. "Are we in some sort of danger?"
"Don't worry, my dear," Lord Jeremy soothed, placing his hand on hers. "We in the council entertain wild ideas as a matter of course; just to be safe, and find them to be nothing more than that, wouldn't you agree, your majesty?"
The prince smiled condescendingly and nodded, but as he opened his mouth to speak he was cut off by Lord Lance.
"Ears of children maybe, but not the mind of one. You've caught my interest, John. I hope to hear from you again. Now, ladies, John, please excuse us. I think now is the time to start the council."
The others thanked Crystal's mother for the lovely meal, as if she had prepared any of it, before excusing themselves and retiring to an upstairs room. John left the house shortly afterwards, clearly feeling out of place conversing with the wives and daughters. Crystal managed to corner her mother.
"I hate these meals, Mother. It's ridiculous that we're not allowed to speak."
"Something you seemed to find hard to remember, dear," her mother said pointedly.
"Why is he allowed to speak? Why is he even here?"
"By he, I assume you mean John. He was asked questions and answered. He didn't have a choice. He didn't invite himself either, as you well know."
"He was rude to the prince. Did you notice that?"
"Not really, dear, although I'm sure the prince will live."
"Mother! That's the future King you're talking about. John made him look silly."
"Yes, dear, he is the future King. He's also someone who reminded everyone in that room that you're adopted, in my house. And he doesn't need any help from John to look silly."
Crystal had forgotten that the prince had done that, and couldn't think of a reply, so just pouted at her mother.
"Look, dear, John has already left to go to bed; maybe it's time for you to do the same."
"But mother! Rosie is still here."
"She's talking politely to the other ladies, not arguing with her mother. Now bed! Go!"
With that, her mother turned to speak to Lady Sapphire, ignoring Crystal, who had no choice but to obey or look even more childish.
John carried the model into the classroom. The room was empty, John having arrived long before the other students would get to school. Professor Easthill had asked him to bring this model in, and although he had tried to avoid having to do so by pointing out that it was now the property of the library, the Professor had asked the Keeper, who enthusiastically agreed for it to be brought in to show the other students; there was no way out of the situation. Contrary to Crystal's understanding, John knew exactly how unpopular excelling academically made him, and was hoping to avoid the spotlight if he could manage it, but it was proving harder than he imagined. Professor Easthill had taken a liking to John, and was keen to show off his work.
For this model was the project that had earned him the right to attend the school, the masterpiece he had spent so many hours working on. John lowered the carrying case onto the floor before gently lifting the model from the case, and laying it down on a table at the front of the class. He examined it closely, checking that he hadn't damaged it in any way during the journey to school. He remembered the last time he had looked at it this carefully; it was about six months ago, and he had been sat outside their house in the woods, looking at the completed model of the valley. He had been due to pack it up in the carrying box, but noticed that the wood was chipped and had repainted the offending corner and was letting it dry in the sun. High above him he had seen a Blue Dragon, his immediate shock subsiding as he saw it drop into a steep dive and head towards their house.
"Did you not see me?" his father had asked after transforming. "I could have had you if I was a real Blue."
"They don't dive like you do," John replied idly. "You pull your wings in closer to your body and drop more quickly. They never do that."
His father nodded, impressed by his answer. "We know where she is," he told him as he sat down next to John. "Just as we were led to believe, she was adopted by one of their Lords. She's going to be going to the capital in the summer, just as we expected."
John had been waiting for this confirmation. He frowned, but nodded. "Has anyone been able to see her yet?"
"No, no one," his father replied. "I managed to find out this information from a man at a market on the outskirts of Black Rock. She's a bit of a celebrity locally, with her blond hair, so her comings and goings are well observed. She'll be leaving in a few months. All of the Lords send their children to this school, so she was bound to be going there."
John began packing away the model as he considered this information.
"And we think that her birthday is at the end of summer, just before the school term starts? She couldn't be going to school next year instead?"
John's father nodded. "We're certain about that. Well, certain that that's when they celebrate it. Not her true birthday, of course."
"No, not her true birthday," John agreed.
"You can leave for Furnace in a couple of weeks," his father told him. "You should try to become familiar with the place before she arrives. It's all arranged with the school?"
"Yes," John replied. "The scholarship was never in doubt after submitting this model." His voice was full of regret.
His father smiled sadly and put his hand on his son's shoulder. "I know you're not happy that I helped you put that together, but you know we couldn't take a risk that you didn't get the scholarship place. Besides, you should be proud of your work; it's a real masterpiece. I'm sure the only difference I made was in getting it completed earlier than you would have done on your own. You're a fantastic student."
John nodded. "Thank you, Father. I understand what's important, but I don't like taking credit for work I didn't do. Besides which, it'll make living up to the school's expectations even harder."
"You'll exceed their expectations," his father assured him. "You're already educated to a level far beyond anything that this school of theirs could ever hope their students to reach. Your main problem will be hiding your knowledge, not showing it."
John nodded. "Yes, it is amazing how little they know, and how much of what they think they know is wrong. I expect she will be just like them."
"Of course, she cannot help to be anything else, but that is not her fault. You must teach her, but do so carefully."
John nodded again. "I know, but it may be difficult. You are sure that you cannot come with me?"
"No, I wish I could, but I have no reason to be in the capital. I will return home when you leave. It will be nice to not have to dye my hair any more." John's father ran his fingers through his short red hair, the blond roots just starting to show.
"I wish I'd been able to dye mine these last few years," John commented. "Fitting in would have been easier."
"Easier in the short term, but riskier in the long term," his father replied. "Eventually someone would have noticed the blond roots and you'd have had to answer many unwelcome questions. Besides, this may make it easier to bond with the girl."
John didn't answer. He knew the arguments as well as his father, but had many misgivings about the whole plan right from the start. He wished they had just tried to kidnap her when she was younger. Still, this would be an opportunity to see the capital, an opportunity that couldn't be passed up.
"Will they mind my arriving early?" John asked.
His father shook his head. "You'll be earning your keep, so they'll be fine about it. It'll give you a chance to get to know more about their history in that library."
John sighed. "Father, I have done almost nothing but learn about their history for years. Do I need to spend more time learning?"
His father shook his head, laughing. "Not their real history. More about what they think they know, and what they teach their children. You'll be surprised by what you'll learn."
John shrugged. "I think I'd prefer to go back with you first, to see mother and my brothers. Even for just a week."
His father nodded sadly. "I know, but we have our orders. You're a good boy, John; you've never complained once, but I know you'd rather be back at home. Work hard, and this will all be over soon, and you can come home forever. Just don't rush it. Win her confidence first. Whatever you do, don't tell her anything about who you are until you have fully gained her confidence."
John nodded. "I know the plan, and don't worry, I won't let you down. I'll only tell her what you've told me to." He paused. "Father, I have a request."
His father smiled. "Go on, what do you want?"
"Can we fly today? Perhaps you could teach me something new?"
His father shook his head. "We can fly, but I'm running out of new things to teach you. You've leant astonishingly quickly."
John frowned, unwilling to accept this answer. "Then teach me to be better at what I already know. I'm not as fast as you, and I don't know how to go faster."
His father shook his head again. "That's nothing to do with your technique; I'm just stronger than you. You'll get there with age."
"But I'm not going to grow; I'm already as big as you, at least as a dragon. Why aren't I as strong as you? Do I need to do more training?"
"You're doing everything you can, John. Just be patient. Now, remember, we can take the form of any dragon that we choose, and as a reward for your hard work, I'll let you choose today. What Dragon shall we be?"
John's eyes twinkled. "A Golden Dragon!"
Students from Professor Easthill's class entered the classroom and snapped him from his pleasant day dream, bringing him back to the present. John quickly put the carrying case under the table and slipped out of the room to go to his own classroom for registration. He said nothing about the model to his classmates, as they would find out about it soon enough. Geography was the second lesson of the day, and although Professor Easthill was excited about showing the class his model, John wasn't looking forward to it at all.
"Class, come in, come in, we have a real treat for you today!" Professor Easthill announced as they traipsed into his classroom after finishing their history lesson. John looked down at the floor, dreading what was coming next. He heard the other students whispering and looking from the model, to him and then back to the model. Students in Professor Easthill's class had already seen his model, and his classmates had heard them talking about it as they left the class so they already knew that this was John's work.
"Students, take your seats. Before we start today's lesson, I would like to invite John to the front to talk to you about this model. As you are all aware, John is a scholarship student, and this marvellous model is the reason that he is in this school, and to be honest with you, I doubt any of the other entrants even came close to competing with John. Truly, it is a masterpiece. John, please, tell us about this model."
John walked to the front, and stood behind the model. "This was my part of my submission for the scholarship, and is a model of the Unexplained Valley, which is a place to the south of Furnace, not far from the border with the Eastern principality."
"It looks so real," Amber said, thinking aloud and marvelling at John's work. "Did you really do all this on your own?"
The model, which was about four feet long and two feet wide, was particularly well built and detailed, the result of hundreds of hours of work, with plenty of help from his father, although mainly in the initial planning stages and not the building of the model. The valley itself was twenty miles long, and no more than five miles wide, and John had represented it beautifully, painstakingly carving thousands of little trees to represent the forests.
"I built it on my own," John replied, "although of course my father accompanied me to the valley. It's a beautiful place, as you may be able to see from the model, although it probably doesn't do it justice. As you can see, there's a waterfall at the northern tip, which then leads to this river which flows through the valley."
"Where does the river go?" Lauren asked. "It looks like it just disappears."
"It disappears underground," John replied. "The valley is surrounded by high vertical walls, so you couldn't climb down into it, the only way in is to fly in. This means that the valley has some wildlife that is found nowhere else in the Kingdom, including some unusual and dangerously aggressive…"
"Why is it called the Unexplained Valley?" Amber asked.
"Well, it has the name as people couldn't explain how it came into being, although it's a silly name in many ways, as there are two very old books which explain exactly how it came into being. One was thought to be a work of fiction for a long time, a sort of hero story, telling the story of the Lone Dragon, and
—
"
"Lone Dragon? Lone as in friendless?" Daniel asked. "Is that why you see it as a hero story, John?"
"The Lone John!" Joel said with a laugh. A few sniggers passed through the room.
"Come now," Professor Easthill objected. "That's not fair to John. Let him tell the story."
"The Lone Dragon is a story of how a single Worm Dragon destroyed a whole city, the capital city of his enemies, another type of Worm Dragon that built an elaborate city underground. He redirected a river so that it flooded the city, drowning most of them. Over the next few years the surviving Worm Dragons began to drain the water from their city, but the supports had all rotted away, and a massive earthquake caused the city to collapse, leaving behind the valley. It was thought to be fiction for a long time, but people have studied the valley and think that this is the actual city in the story."
"Come on, John," Jenna objected. "You're not still banging on about that nonsense of there being lots of different types of dragons, are you? No one believes you."
"Look around the city," John replied. "There are plenty of statues of different types of dragons that we have encountered in various parks." He glanced at Crystal. "Even some of the older houses have statues in their grounds. You'll find Worm Dragons among them."
Crystal's jaw dropped and she glared at him accusingly. John ignored her and looked away.
"What else can you tell us about the valley?" Professor Easthill asked.
"Well, it's quite a bit warmer in the valley than in the surrounding area, and it's shielded from the winds, and feels a little more humid down there. There are a few lakes in there, and the water is warm and pleasant to swim in, with some excellent fishing spots."
Jerome and Kal entered the room, talking to each other loudly. "Sorry we're late, sir," Jerome said as he entered. "Professor Silver wanted to speak to us."
"Well, come in, come in," Professor Easthill replied impatiently. "Take your seats."
"It's a beautiful place to visit," John continued, with lots of lush green spaces, but it is not a place to stay overnight, as it has some dangerous inhabitants that
—
"
John didn't manage to finish the sentence. As Kal passed the table with the model on it, his bag caught the corner of the model, and it slid from the table and crashed onto the floor. It flipped over as it fell, and everyone in the classroom gasped as they heard the model break into pieces as it smashed into the hard classroom floor.