Chelmsford turned and moved to a filing cabinet behind his desk. He rifled through it, looking for a particular brown accordion manila folder. The folder, more than three inches thick, was the product of more than seven years of research. He had a copy on his computer, but Chelmsford always liked to read a hard copy of his work before anyone else saw it. After what he just read on the OCONUS DMS, the top secret communications system within the Pentagon which he had access to, he knew this file would soon be read by a wider group of people than ever before.
The title of the working paper: “Tipping Point Kashmir: India-Pakistan War Scenarios in a Post-Nuclear Age Framework.”
Chelmsford, at the age of thirty-seven, was a tenured professor at Johns Hopkins University. He had two Ph.D.s. The first was from Columbia, where his thesis concerned the creation of a divided Kashmir, its history, and the reasons why overwhelmingly Muslim Kashmir opted in 1947 to ally itself not to Muslim Pakistan, but to the Hindu-dominated India, a chain of events that led inexorably to the near-constant state of trouble and conflict between the two countries for more than half a century. Chelmsford’s other Ph.D. was from MIT, where his thesis concerned the three wars between India and Pakistan and the possible implications of the next war between them, a war that would, for the first time, involve two nuclear-armed countries.
It was this thesis which brought him to the attention of General Tim Lindsay, who invited him to join the faculty of the U.S. Army War College. The War College, designed to educate U.S. military leaders, comprised military and CIA officials, as well as academics. SSI’s main mission was to predict future combat scenarios and wars, so that policy makers could better understand decisions as they were being made in the heat of battle. Since then, Chelmsford had split his time between teaching at the Johns Hopkins School of International Affairs, and modeling and updating different scenarios for a future war involving India and Pakistan.
When General Lindsay was appointed U.S. secretary of state, Chelmsford had sent him a bottle of Silver Oak and a note. Chelmsford had written:
General Lindsay,
My congratulations on your
appointment. I have no doubt
that you will be a truly great
secretary of state. Please
don’t take this the wrong
way, but I sincerely hope
we never have reason to talk
once you are in office,
other than as friends.
Sincerely,
Professor Karl Chelmsford
Now, as Chelmsford pulled the thick folder from the filing cabinet, he knew that war between India and Pakistan was now inevitable. He had read the entire document less than a month ago and knew it almost by heart. Still, he would try and read the entire document this morning, checking for the umpteenth time to make sure the logic of the alternative war scenarios was well-reasoned.
But he didn’t have time to even complete the first page of the document. His office phone rang, three fast, high-pitched tones. He assumed it was his main point of contact at the Pentagon, Defense Undersecretary Barry Ziegler. He hit the small red button that flashed on the corner of the phone console.
“Hi, Kitty,” said Chelmsford, referring to Ziegler’s assistant. “I have a feeling I know why you’re calling.”
“This isn’t Kitty,” said a deep, gravelly voice. “It’s Harry Black, secretary of defense. There’s a chopper waiting at the barracks helipad for you. Get your ass out there. You’re going to the White House. And bring that report.”
* * *
Two floors below ground, under the West Wing of the White House, the Situation Room was teeming.
Nearly every chair at the large conference table was occupied. The walls of the windowless room displayed live shot video feeds, taken by aerial drones, of different battle scenes in Kashmir. On one screen, a rotating sequence of video feeds showing Skardu in Pakistan-controlled Baltistan, now firmly in the hands of Indian troops. On another screen, a similar rotating sequence of videos showing Kargil, a town in Indian-controlled Kashmir now occupied by Pakistani troops. Kargil was now the epicenter of an escalating ground and air war between the two countries.
The room was mostly silent, a few whispers and private one-off conversations the only noise, as everyone in the room stared at the video screens, transfixed by the violence.
The door flew open and the entire room turned to look as the president walked in, accompanied by Secretary of State Lindsay and Jessica Tanzer, the national security advisor.
President Allaire walked past his seat at the end of the conference table, crossing to one of the video screens. On the screen, the side of a small, grass-covered mountain was suddenly lit up by an explosion, temporarily shutting out the drone feed, which quickly recalibrated and adjusted, refocused and brought the shot back, now a scene of flaming terrain. The president walked to another screen, which had a wider vantage point, as if from an airplane. In bright yellow, the Line of Control separating India from Pakistan was illuminated in computer-generated yellow. This line ran in a jutting, zigzag pattern from the left of the large plasma screen to the right, giving the room some perspective as to where the battle was taking place. On another screen, the hundred-mile stretch of India highway through Kargil, at the center of the battle, was displayed. The plasma showed the brown and green land near Kargil. Kargil’s main town area, shops, houses, and streets, were interrupted by two large clusters of flames at either end of the screen as the wide shot allowed a clear view of the battle line.
President Allaire turned and walked to his seat at the end of the table.
“Evening, everyone,” said the president. “Go ahead, Jessica.”
“Let’s start with a status,” said Jessica, looking at Harry Black, the secretary of defense. “Go, Harry.”
“This is as of ten minutes ago,” said Black. “Hector might have some incremental perspective from Langley, but here goes. An incident in a small village under India’s control in the northern reaches of Kashmir Territory has sparked another conflict between India and Pakistan. Whoever started it, the bottom line is the incident resulted in an attack by India across the Line of Control. India destroyed a Pakistani military base in Baltistan, called Skardu, approximately twenty-six hours ago. Three Indian MiGs completely eliminated the base and Pakistan countered with a series of aerial attacks, destroying three small northern encampments beneath the LOC. India has now done a rapid deployment of more than fifty thousand troops to the area. They’re trucking them up from a base to the south called Pullu. They also constructed a down and dirty airstrip along the Shyok River across the Line of Control and they’re moving men frantically into the hills south of Skardu. India is now more than twenty miles into Pakistan. They’re moving a lot of men and they’re moving them quickly. From the hills, they’re overwhelming the Pakistanis as they try and reclaim the line. Pakistan is responding by going airborne, dropping clusters of bombs at the Indians more than fifty miles to the south, including population centers. Their pilots are also attempting to destroy the Indian supply line. There are multiple engagements occurring in the skies above the Line of Control in the battle corridor. Of greatest concern, Pakistan has responded with its own incursion. Following a similar attack route as the 1999 invasion, Pakistan has moved aggressively into Kargil, Drass, Mushkoh, here.”
Black stood up and moved to the screen and pointed.
“Pakistan now controls the Indian highway for at least fifty miles east of Srinagar, through Kargil. Kargil is now the flash point. Both sides are loading up with ground troops. There are dogfights occurring all over the skies above the LOC. It’s getting extremely violent, and lots of people are dying. There don’t seem to be any brakes, controls, or a desire on either side to calm things down. It’s getting hotter and hotter.”
“Why does India need to be in Pakistan in the first place?” asked Jessica. “Have you spoken with anyone in their chain of command?”
“Yes,” said Black. “I’ve spoken twice with General Dartalia, their army chief. I’ve also attempted to reach General Karreff, Pakistan’s top military commander, but he won’t talk with us, not yet anyway. Dartalia says the Indians will not retreat to the Line of Control. They believe Skardu, and, generally speaking, the northern territories, should be India’s in any event. My guess is, they didn’t expect the Pak counterattack into Kargil to come so soon and so effectively and they’re holding on for future terms.”
“Any movement in or around the nukes, on either side?” asked Jessica.
“Nothing,” said Calibrisi. “No redeployment or movement, which we would pick up by satellite. The one thing I should point out is coming out of Beijing. The Chinese are moving men to the northern border of India-controlled Kashmir, a region called Aksai Chin.”
Calibrisi stood and moved to one of the large plasma screens, pointing with his finger.
“They’ve annexed the only road into the area, a mountain pass called the Karakoram Highway that feeds directly into the battle area. So far they’re keeping most of their men inside China. But we’re detecting a big troop movement to the east, down toward northern India, here.”
Calibrisi pointed at the screen.
“This has got to be on your radar screen, Tim,” added Calibrisi, looking at the secretary of state.
“It is,” said Lindsay. “I’ve spoken briefly with Secretary Chao, their foreign minister. He termed the movement of troops ‘precautionary.’”
“Precautionary or not, I am frankly more concerned with the Chinese at this point than anyone else,” said Calibrisi.
“What’s happening on the diplomatic front?” asked the president, looking at Lindsay.
“We have every possible channel in play on both sides of this battle. I’ve spoken with Pakistan’s foreign minister, Darius Mohan, as well as Priya Vilokan in New Delhi. There is anger on both sides, as you might imagine. Neither country wants to discuss a ceasefire. Even the idea of going back to the Line of Control was rejected by both sides. The Russians, the French, the Swiss, everyone is trying to stop this thing, but neither side is listening.”
“Why are the Chinese moving men to the border?” asked President Allaire.
“In the past two months, a couple of developments have occurred that are worth reminding everyone,” said Lindsay. “First, President El-Khayab spent the better part of three days in Beijing last month, meeting with President Kim. Many people thought El-Khayab might try and extricate Pakistan from the very expensive weapons deal Musharraf signed a decade ago, which obligates Islamabad to spend more than four hundred billion dollars on jets and missiles and other assorted gadgetry, in return for the implicit understanding that China will continue to protect Pakistan from aggression by outsiders.”
“Why would they want to get out of it?” asked President Allaire.
“The China desk thought that the sheer cost to Pakistan was not sustainable,” said Calibrisi. “The minimum purchase requirements on military hardware and technology are staggering, especially for a country whose main export is underwear.”
“Whatever El-Khayab went to Beijing for, he came back with a stronger, tighter relationship with Kim,” continued Lindsay. “We assume China restructured the deal. Pakistan put in a fresh order, more than sixteen billion dollars’ worth of Chinese fighter jets, the first fifty of which were delivered a week ago.”
“Presumably the Chinese are putting men at the Kashmir border should they need to come to Pakistan’s rescue,” said Jessica.
“Or if they see an opportunity for themselves,” added Calibrisi.
“Yes,” said Black, the defense chief. “My theater OPS desk is estimating movement of more than half a million soldiers. That’s a big number. Now, let’s remember that China can play around with big numbers and they can do it quickly. But still, it’s a lot of men.”
“What are we doing about it?” asked the president.
“I think it makes sense to start thinking about scenarios,” said Jessica.
“That’s why you’re here,” said Black, looking across the conference table at Karl Chelmsford. “What’s going to happen next, professor?”
“Thank you for having me,” Chelmsford said, adjusting his glasses. “I just want to explain something, and that is, my analysis predicates different scenarios for an India-Pakistan war. We then prosecute those scenarios in an implication-based framework, designed to provide you, Mr. President, and your advisors, with thoughts, ideas, possibilities, about what might make sense for America and what might not. But we are not out there in live combat theater, and policy assessments like ours, done using the best data but from the comfort of the War College and the Pentagon, have been shown to be wrong before.”
“Yeah, kid, it’s all guessing,” said Calibrisi. “Cut to the chase.”
“There are four main conclusions to the report,” said Chelmsford, looking at the president, then around the table. “First, if you look at the unique geography, culture, history, and religion of the Jammu and Kashmir region, there is no convenient way to slice up the land to accomplish a fair, reasonable, or logical break. Britain did a lousy job of splitting the area up but I’m not really sure anyone could have done any better. It should have remained an independent sovereign in 1947. There are large pockets of Muslims at the southern border, near India, and there are major areas of Hindu along the Pakistan border. Many Muslims are India loyalists, but there is a growing Islamist radical presence, especially in Kashmir Valley. The biggest issue, however, is not religious; it’s that neither Pakistan nor India would ever give up land voluntarily, now or in the future.”
“The geography lesson is probably not necessary, Karl,” said Jessica.
“It’s relevant,” interrupted Chelmsford. “The point is, we shouldn’t waste any time trying to come up with a policy-based geographic diplomatic solution.
“Second,” said Chelmsford, continuing on. “The three wars fought between India and Pakistan were intensely bloody and were conducted in a prenuclear context. There has not been a war since 1971. Unfortunately, interviews with top decision makers from both countries involved in the most recent war, revealed that both countries would have employed nuclear weapons in earlier conflicts, had they been available. That is a fact. Does that mean today’s leaders are going to use nuclear devices? I don’t know. Someone should be thinking about it.