Authors: Humphrey Hawksley
‘Ninety minutes from now, at first light, we move into Baghla. Then we will proceed towards Rahimyar Khan,’ he told Gurjit Singh on the radio.
‘How long will you take to secure Baghla?’ he asked.
‘It will be done immediately. There is nothing left. What news from the other brigades?’
‘They are moving into Walhar at first light and expect one hell of a fight. Silk sector have reached the Uanur River and will hold there. There was only token resistance at Madaghar.
Cotton had to take Sandhi after armoured resistance. That is now secure and Cotton is ten kilometres from the rail track. Calfskin took Bahuwalatoba with light resistance, but six hundred
prisoners. They are outside Bagh-o-Bahar. You drew rotten luck, Colonel.’
‘Thank you, sir. And in the north?’
‘I understand we are doing well and that Sialkot will fall within the day. Our luck hasn’t been so good in the Batalik sector of the LoC. But a comprehensive ceasefire should solve
that.’
Colonel Chidambaram felt better for the briefing, knowing that he wasn’t alone in the Thar Desert and that other officers had had problems as well. Many of the tank crews were outside
their vehicles, washing, shaving, praying, preparing for the battle to come. Chidambaram was about to jump down and walk around, talking to them, when he heard Singh back on the radio again, an
edge in his voice: ‘Toss-bomb attack. Toss-bomb attack. All men inside vehicles. NBC suits where available.’
The Pakistani Mirage 111s and F-16s streaked towards the Indian armoured positions, flying at 3,000 feet. Each pilot was trained for nuclear weapons delivery and the toss-bomb loop which would
ensure his safety from the explosion. Each had a target specified from the Chinese satellite imagery. Two thousand feet higher the FC-1s were patrolling to head off any attack by Indian
fighters.
But not all the aircraft carried a nuclear bomb. Two were nuclear-armed, one Mirage 111 – which Indian intelligence was not certain had been made nuclear-capable – and one F-16. Each
aircraft carried one one-kiloton neutron bomb, an explosive device no bigger than a grapefruit. Each bomb had a destructive range of 700 metres, throwing out an 8,000-rad dose of radiation, more
than ten times the 600-rad dose needed to kill in a normal environment, but enough to force the high-energy neutrons through the armour protection of the Indian tanks. A few of the tanks might have
had depleted uranium shields built into the armour, which could offset the radiation. But that was untested and too expensive to be used throughout the Indian army.
The whole Pakistani squadron of sixteen aircraft came in at high altitude. As they dived they came under withering Indian anti-aircraft fire, which was attacked by the defending FC-1s. An F-16
was hit on its descent and exploded in the air. A Mirage 111 went too low and crashed into the ground. The other fourteen aircraft released bombs as they dived, and continued heading down: because
of the airspeed the bombs shot upwards against the force of gravity. Once clear, the pilots pulled the nose up and went into a steep climb, avoiding the impact of any immediate nuclear
explosion.
The aircraft were at the height of their climb when the bombs went off. Six were conventional; six were 500 kilogram fuel-air explosive warheads; two were tactical nuclear weapons. They exploded
within fifteen seconds of each other, sending out devastating bursts of radiation. Contrary to the common perception of the neutron bomb, the attack did not just kill soldiers and leave buildings
and vehicles intact. Anything within the 700-metre range was damaged beyond repair. Those vehicles outside the range were left intact, as were several of the tank crews who had managed to get
inside NBC suits and seal up their vehicles.
But after that, many died, from dehydration and heat, abandoned by both sides as contaminated and beyond saving. The alloy steel used in the armour became radioactive itself. When rescue teams
finally went in, both General Gurjit Singh and Colonel Chidambaram were found dead in their vehicles.
The area of the southern-Indian armoured advance was declared unsafe for at least forty-eight hours – and by then the world was on a nuclear precipice.
Briefing
Nuclear weapons
At the turn of the millennium, five countries were acknowledged nuclear weapons states. Two had demonstrated a nuclear-weapon capability and it is thought that only one, Israel,
with a capacity for about 200 warheads, remained undeclared. North Korea may have produced a small number of nuclear weapons. At the peak of production in the eighties, there were about 70,000
nuclear weapons in the world – with an explosive power equivalent to 500,000 bombs of the size dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. India was thought to hold more than eighty nuclear weapons to
Pakistan’s twenty-five. China had 400; Russia 21,000; the United States 11,500; France 450; and the United Kingdom 260. Just one 15-kiloton fission bomb explosion over an urban area with a
population density of about 25,000 per square kilometre would kill about 200,000 people.
Zhongnanhai, Beijing, China
Local time: 0815 Monday 7 May 2007
GMT: 0015 Monday 7 May 2007
General Leung Liyin
rang Tao Jian from the military headquarters under the Western Hills on a direct line straight through to the President’s office in
Zhongnanhai. ‘Pakistan has halted the Indian advance in the south with a tactical nuclear burst,’ said Leung. He paused. Tao was silent. Then Leung continued: ‘We are ready on the
western front.’
‘What about the Indian northern positions?’
‘Fighting is continuing.’
‘All right, General,’ said Tao. ‘Begin Operation
Dragon Fire
.’
Briefing
Japan
The historical use – or misuse – of Japanese militarism has long been a soul-searching issue for the Japanese. In 1894, Japan defeated China in a brief war and took
Taiwan. Korea was annexed in 1910 and Manchuria invaded in 1931. Japanese forces swept through China in 1936 and finally attacked US forces at Pearl Harbor in 1941 – ending in the
nuclear-bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Japan then drew up a pacifist constitution which ‘for ever renounces war as a sovereign right’. During the Cold War, Japan
flourished, living under a US security umbrella which protected it against threats from the Soviet Union. In the late nineties, however, the United States urged it to take a greater role in
regional defence. Japan quietly redrew its military profile, believing that ultimately its biggest challenge would come from China, whose aim was to overtake Japan as the pre-eminent power in the
region.
The Prime Minister’s Residence, Tokyo
Local time: 0930 Monday 7 May 2007
GMT: 0030 Monday 7 May 2007
In normal circumstances,
Prime Minister Shigeto Wada would have left it up to his Foreign Minister to summon the Indian Ambassador. But these were not normal times. The
nuclear balance of Asia was untested and dangerous. And Wada had to make swift and difficult decisions which would strike right at the soul of modern Japan.
Mandip Singh arrived, looking like a man who had not slept for two days, and when Wada offered him tea he waved his hand and asked for black coffee.
‘Will you retaliate?’ asked Wada.
‘We will,’ said Mandip Singh. ‘But the question is, will it be nuclear – and I won’t know that until you do, Prime Minister.’
‘Don’t do it,’ said Wada with uncharacteristic bluntness. ‘For many years we have suggested that we strengthen ties, but your governments haven’t listened. Now that
this has happened, we have no choice but to insist you do not retaliate. If you do, we will withdraw all aid, Japanese investment will naturally follow and your economy will collapse within
months.’
‘Unfortunately, millions of Indians don’t see it like that. Territory and honour are more important than life and a full rice bowl. Besides, it is out of my control.’ The
Ambassador was exhausted and didn’t mind showing it. ‘But I will say one thing. China has decided to use this conflict to become the undisputed regional power. If it succeeds,
India’s influence will have to diminish, and that will not be in Japan’s strategic interest. We believe it is an apt time to examine the strategic ramifications.’
Wada nodded: ‘We don’t have the academic luxury of diplomatic evaluations. So I will tell you this in confidence, Ambassador, and use it how you wish. Our intelligence tells us that
China is determined to win. They have just activated a military plan called Operation
Dragon Fire
.’
Briefing
Russia
Russia retains an impressive order of battle on paper, but its military power is far less than that once wielded by the Soviet Union. Cohesion, morale and operational effectiveness
are all reduced. Throughout the Cold War the Soviet Union retained a strong relationship with India. In the 1990s Russia also began what was called a Strategic Relationship for the Twenty-first
Century with China. Russia now supplies substantial amounts of weaponry to both countries. It continues to struggle with its own political and economic reforms. If events go badly in Russia,
autocracy could be strengthened, reviving a new era of tension and confrontation with the West and other powers. In the first months of the twenty-first century, Russia made a series of
announcements centred on increased military spending and modernizing its nuclear arsenal.
The Kremlin, Moscow, Russia
Local time: 0330 Monday 7 May 2007
GMT: 0030 Monday 7 May 2007
Russian President Vladimir
Gorbunov did not need to be woken up. He was an insomniac who often made crucial decisions for his country in the early hours of the morning.
In the past few months he had been working on strengthening the alliance between Russia, China and India. His aim was to create a military and political force which would curb the power of the
United States and NATO.
A former commander of the Pacific Fleet, Gorbunov was acutely attuned to the undercurrents of the Asia–Pacific. Far more than his counterparts from Moscow and St Petersburg, Gorbunov
looked east for his models of development. He admired China, in particular, for the determined way it was pulling itself into the modern age, viewing it more as a role model than a threat.
India was a long-standing ally, as at ease with its democratic institutions as China was with its authoritarianism. Only two months earlier, Gorbunov had been in Delhi to extend the military
technology pact with India, which was giving it the weaponry needed to counter the superior forces of China. In 1999, India and Russia signed a Military Technology Co-operation Treaty lasting until
2010.
Gorbunov believed if power between India and China could be balanced, he could lead a population bloc of 2.5 billion people, with a formidable array of nuclear and conventional weapons to limit
the United States’ influence in international affairs. Many thought of this strategic triangle as a seductive aspiration, but too far-fetched. Gorbunov believed that a military alliance
between China, India and Russia was far less ambitious than the chaotic union pushed through within Europe. If he did not try, the second-power countries of the world would forever remain weak
against the Western democracies.
It was Gorbunov’s initiative, long before he was President, to give away the 30,000 tonne aircraft carrier
Gorshkov
to India in exchange for the purchase of the equipment and
aircraft for it, including the SU-27M. Gorbunov had personally authorized the transfer of technology for India’s Rajendra phased-array radar system and Akash long-range surface-to-air missile
system, making up a limited integrated theatre-defence system against the threat of Pakistani M-11 ballistic missiles.
Although the Rajendra was mostly Indian-built, the Akash was made up of the formidable Russian mobile S-300V Anti-Tactical Ballistic Missile system, code-named the SA12 Giant by NATO and
considered superior to the American Patriot system. It was effective against planes, including those equipped with Stealth technology, and various types of missiles, including tactical and
cruise.
Each system could protect an area of more than 320 square kilometres, including major cities, from missile attacks.
Before becoming President, Gorbunov had hosted Indian delegations at the Kapustin Yar test grounds, 1,300 kilometres south-east of Moscow. He persuaded them to abandon their national pride and
take technology for the Rajendra as well. It could detect ballistic missiles more than 1,200 kilometres away, track sixty-four missiles and aircraft simultaneously and give warnings of at least
five minutes to activate the anti-ballistic missile defences. The Rajendra was just what India was looking for.
Gorbunov also strengthened the role of the Indo-Russian Joint Working Group (JWG), which was looking at rearming India’s aircraft carriers, upgrading both the T-72 and advanced
missile-firing T-90 tanks, providing India with Msta-B guns and KA-30 attack helicopters and purchasing the new MiG-AT advanced jet-trainer aircraft.
But the Russian President’s main achievement had begun more than ten years earlier when he was co-chair of the JWG and later a deputy Defence Minister.
‘No navy can be considered a force to reckon with unless it has nuclear submarines to control oceans,’ he repeatedly told the Indians, while at the same time pushing for Russia to
release more technology for India’s beleaguered attempts to build a nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed submarine.
He arranged for the Russian submarine-design bureau, Rubin, to cooperate with Indian scientists on the hull and the reactor. The result was a 6,000 tonne displacement hull of titanium steel to
give extra diving depth.
Gorbunov’s final initiative was the technology for the submarine-launched Sagarika cruise missile, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and derived from the Prithvi, with a range of 320
kilometres. The Sagarika had put India’s navy in a different league. The nuclear-powered submarine had unlimited endurance and mobility. There was no place for a surface ship to hide from
torpedoes, and the Sagarika could be fired from outside territorial waters with the capacity to destroy a city.