Authors: Dale Brown
“It would take an emergency funding bill costing hundreds of billions of dollars, Mr. Vice President,” Carlyle said. “I don't think we have the votes in Congress, and I'm
positive
we don't have the money.”
“I believe strongly enough in the program that I'm willing to lead the effort to get as many representatives to support it as possible, Mr. President,” Phoenix said. “I know a group of lawmakers who would draft a bill, and I can get a number of industry groups and contractors together to explain exactly what the completed system would give us. Just say the word.”
“Maybe after the elections, Ken,” Gardner said flatly.
“We should act as quickly as we can, sirâ”
“I think it's important not to overreact to this test, Mr. Vice President,” Barbeau interjected when she saw Gardner's warning glare. “I've spoken with the premier and civilian military leadership of China, and they've all assured me that China views space as it does the high seas: It should be free for peaceful and cooperative exploitation by all nations.” She turned to the president. “The Chinese say current U.S. policy toward space makes it difficult for them to back away from deploying antisatellite weapons, sir.” She saw a hint of confusion in the president's face, so she explained:
“Our stated policy is that travel, access, and development of space is considered a vital national imperative and we'll defend it like our own soil and shores.” The confused look vanished, replaced by one of worry. “Our policies don't mesh.”
“So you're suggesting we change
our
policy because China doesn't like it?” Phoenix asked. “Since when does China tell us what to say or do?”
“I'm not suggesting we change our policy because China said so, Mr. Vice President,” Barbeau said testily. “I'm saying that in my opinion the sticking point with the Chinese and other nations is
that our policy states America is claiming the right to space and will go to war to protect that right. China and other space-faring states want a guarantee of free access for all. If they don't get that assurance, their only response is to build and field weapons that can at least threaten our systems.”
“If they want an arms race, we should give it to them,” Phoenix said. “That's how President Reagan took down the Soviet Union and ended the Cold War: He forced the Soviets to invest more and more in weapons until their economy finally collapsed. China may have a red-hot economy now, but if they're forced into a space arms race with us, we can bankrupt them just as easily as the Soviets. We shouldâ”
“All right, Ken, all right,” President Gardner interjected. “My main objective here is to keep the dialogue open between Washington and Beijing, and it's been strained by the accidental attack on the
Bush
and the situation in Pakistanâ”
“And their deployment of these ASAT bases and submarines,” Phoenix cut in.
“I said hold on, Ken.” The president paused reflectively, then went on: “As you all know, as SECNAV, I disagreed with President Martindale's executive order about U.S. space policyâI didn't think it was necessary to, in effect, plant a flag in space and dare other nations to try to knock it down. As SECDEF and president following the American Holocaust, I didn't want to reverse any policy decisions that might make us look weak in the eyes of the world.
“But that horrible event was eight years ago now. We may still be weaker than we were before the Russian attacks, but I believe we're leaner and meaner, and it's time we take a leadership position in the world again rather than sit in a corner, lick our wounds, and glare at the rest of the world with suspicion. And I'm not going to play that Cold War game of building more and more weapons because the other side fields some new weapon.”
He turned to Secretary of State Barbeau: “Stacy, you may communicate with the Chinese foreign ministers and tell them that I am forming a policy review panel to examine the U.S. National Space Policy executive order. Our purpose of the study will be to rewrite the order to make it clear to the world that the United States wants nothing more than free access to space by all nations, and that we will do nothing to jeopardize that. We want a policy that makes the deployment of antisatellite weapons, either in space or on the ground, unnecessary and detrimental to world peace and security.”
“Sir, you're not suggesting we
give up
Armstrong Space Station and its defensive weaponsâ¦?”
“I think the antiballistic-missile interceptors are valuable for national security and for the protection of friends and allies,” the president said, “and I think any military unit or base should have a means of defending itself, and that includes Armstrong. Plus, all of the Earth and space imaging, reconnaissance, surveillance, and communications stuff is absolutely essential.
“But I'm willing to reconsider the notion of putting land-attack and antisatellite weapons into orbit, or at least drastically decreasing how many are in use so we don't create an arms race in space. If we can get countries like China and Russia to agree on limiting deployment of antisatellite weapons, we can show the rest of the world that disarmament and cooperation is possible.”
“I agree with that idea, Mr. President,” Secretary of State Barbeau said. She glanced at Vice President Phoenix furtively, then added, “In fact, I think it would have that much more impact if you made it a unilateral decision: The United States will as soon as possible remove all antisatellite weapons from service, including those in Earth orbit and from ships at sea, and we call on all other nations to follow suit in the name of peace, security, and freedom of the use of outer space.” She glanced again at Phoenix long enough to see his shocked expression, then said, “I'm sure the Chi
nese and Russians will enthusiastically receive that proclamation, and then we can proceed with a formal arms-reduction treaty that will seek to eliminate all space weapons.”
“Why in the world do you think any nation would give up its antisatellite weapons and enter into a treaty banning such weapons if the United States unilaterally gives them up
first,
Madam Secretary?” Phoenix asked, obviously fighting to keep his emotions in check. “China is furiously setting up antisatellite missile launchers all around the world because we're so far ahead of them on space-based weapon technology. If we give those up, they have a chance to catch up. They could have years of development time before any formal treaty is signed and ratified and a verification regime put in place.”
“I'm spinning ideas here, Mr. Vice President, that's all,” Barbeau said gaily, waving a hand at Phoenix dismissively. “As always, the devil is in the details, of course. But isn't it easy enough to load those containers or garages or whatever you call them up again with missiles in case a fight breaks out?”
“I don't think it's easy at all, Madam Secretary,” Phoenix said. “It means using rockets or spaceplanes to lift them back into orbit, and astronauts doing space walks to load them into their launchers. Shipborne antisatellite missiles may be easier to redeploy, but it still takes a ship several days or even weeks to return to port forâ”
“Well, as I said, Mr. Vice President, it's all in the details, of course,” Barbeau interjected, “but I really don't see any stumbling points to prevent this from being accomplished over time, do you, sir?” Phoenix only stared at her. She smiled back. “Neither do I. After all, we do it with nuclear weapons, nuclear laboratories, and strategic weapon systems every day.”
“Yes, butâ”
“I'm sure the Chinese and Russians realize that removing the antisatellite weapons from the garages already in orbit will take some time and effort, a lot more than it would take from the land-
or sub-based launchers,” Barbeau went on, “but we would commit ourselves to do it, and also to setting up a verification system on all sides to be sure it's being accomplished to everyone's satisfaction.” She looked at Phoenix, gave him another smile, then looked at the president. “Perhaps you would consider naming the vice president to chair the review panel concerning the National Space Policy, Mr. President?”
“Excellent idea, Stacy,” President Gardner said, looking carefully at Phoenix with a thin smile. “Although he has committed to being out on the campaign trail a lot more often, I don't think the review panel would take up too much more of his time, and he does like to keep up on the latest technology. What do you say, Ken? Interested?”
“I think there are many better-qualified folks to take on this task, Mr. President, like Conrad or Miller,” Phoenix responded after a brief but clearly uncomfortable pause. But then he nodded and said, “But I'd be happy to do it for you, Mr. President.”
“I know you wanted to lead a commission to get congressional support for the Space Defense Force stuff, Ken,” the president said, “but I don't think the two run at odds with each otherâin fact, I think they could be complementary: You want the force brought up to speed as quickly as possible, but you also want to demonstrate America's willingness to cooperate with the world community on eliminating the offensive use of space. Sounds like a win-win to me. What do you say?”
It was obvious Phoenix knew he was being railroaded, but he still nodded enthusiastically. “I'm your guy, Mr. President. Thanks for trusting me to do the job.”
“Very good,” the president said. “Progress reports regularly, get together with Walter to get your board members cleared and seated. Stacy, you can tell the Chinese that the vice president himself will chair the policy review board. Ask that it be kept confidential for nowâthat'll guarantee it'll be leaked right away.”
O
FFICE OF THE
M
INISTER OF
N
ATIONAL
D
EFENSE
, B
EIJING
, P
EOPLE'S
R
EPUBLIC OF
C
HINA
D
AYS LATER
“Welcome, welcome, General,” Chinese National Defense Minister Zung Chunxian said as General Hua Zhilun entered his office and bowed respectfully. The minister of defense extended his hand, and Hua shook it. “You've had a most impressive week I see. Come in and tell me about the test.”
“
Xie-xie,
Minister,” Hua said. Zung showed him to a seat as an assistant brought tea and served it for both of them. “I am very proud of my operations staff and the crew of Submarine 483. They executed the test perfectly. I wish to nominate Captain Han and his crew for a distinguished service award. The submarine's position had to be precise and the launch perfectly timed, and the crew performed well.”
“It shall be done, General,” Zung said. “The submarine was under way when the missile was launched, I understand?”
“Yes, sir, at about ten knots. For optimal results, the submarine had to launch when inside a five-kilometer area at a certain timeâalmost no margin for error was permitted. In operational use, the timing is not as critical, but we wanted the best possible conditions for this demonstration.”
“The Central Military Commission and the president are pleased, General,” Zung went on. “Foreign Affairs Minister Tang tells me that he has received word that the Americans were so surprisedâand intimidated, I should thinkâby the test that they are forming a panel to review their space policy, including a global reduction or ban on antisatellite weapons. What do you think of that?”
Hua looked a little surprised and disappointed. “Ban all antisatellite weapons? That would put us even further behind the Americans in research and development. Is the president considering it?”
“Of course not, General,” Zung said, waving a hand dismissively. “But if the Americans want to do it, we would not discourage them. If we did sign such a treaty, we would continue research and development and prepare to deploy the weapons in the case of any hostilities.” Hua looked relieved. “No, General, the commission was very pleased with the test, and they are taking a very hard look at expanding space and counter-space-weapon technology. Nothing China has done in recent years has riveted the attention of the Americans as much as that launch.”
“That is good to hear, sir.”
“In fact, the president advises me that our other proposal has been approved by the commission,” Zung said. “They want risk-reduction operations to be accelerated so they can request additional funds to expand the antisatellite program before negotiations begin to shut them down. Did you bring the data I requested?”
“Yes, sir,” Hua said, opening his briefcase and extracting a single piece of paper. “The Americans have thirteen Kingfisher weapon satellites in orbitâabout half to a fourth of the proposed constellation, we do not know precisely. All but four are fully operational, based on data transmissions we intercept. One satellite makes almost no transmissions, although it appears to be responding to positioning commands. We believe this one's weapon functions have malfunctioned and were shut down. The Americans will probably send an astronaut from the Armstrong Space Station to attempt repairs soon.”
“That sounds like a good candidate, General,” Zung said. “Will it be in position soon?”
“The timing could not be better, sir,” Hua said. “In five days the American satellite will be within range of our newest DF-21 installation in Taunggyi, Myanmar. That base has the most up-to-date
version of the tracking and guidance software, and an improved missile and rocket motor. The launch window will be open for three hours once a day for approximately three days, and then will close for several days again before reopening, so we have a little leeway in case of other unforeseen complications.”
“Excellent,” Zung said. “Operation
Shan-dian
begins in six days. We will coordinate your operation to coincide with it. Hopefully the Americans will be too distracted by
Shan-dian
to pay attention to your test.”