“Fine. ”
“Let me suggest to you that your predictions of disaster might be intended to destroy
public confidence in the Imperial Government for purposes of your own. ”
“That is not so. ”
“Let me suggest that you intend to claim that a period of time preceding the so-called
ruin of Trantor will be filled with unrest of various types. ”
“That is correct. ”
“And that by the mere prediction thereof, you hope to bring it about, and to have then an
army of a hundred thousand available. ”
Hari stifled his impulse to smile, even to chuckle. “In the first place, that is not so.
And if it were, investigation will show you that barely ten thousand are men of military
age, and none of these has training in arms. ”
Boon stood and was recognized by the presiding Commissioner, sitting on the left of Chen.
“Honored Commissioners, there are no accusations of armed sedition or attempting to
overthrow by main force. ”
The presiding Commissioner nodded with bored disinterest, and said, “Not in question. ”
The advocate tried another tack. “Are you acting as an agent for another?”
“It is well-known I am not in the pay of any man, Mr. Advocate. ” Hari smiled pleasantly.
“I am not a rich man. ”
A little melodramatically, the advocate tried to drive his point home. Who is he trying to
impress-the gallery? Hari stared out at the baronial gentry audience of fifty or so, all
with looks of varying levels of boredom. They're just here to witness. The Commissioners?
They've already made up their minds.
“You are entirely disinterested? You are serving science?” “I am. ”
“Then let us see how. Can the future be changed, Dr. Sel-don?”
“Obviously. ” He waved his hand over the audience. “This courtroom may explode in the next
few hours, or it may not. ” Boon made a mildly disapproving face. “If it did, the future
would undoubtedly be changed in some minor respects. ” Hari smiled at the advocate, then
at Linge Chen, who was not watching him. Boon's frown deepened.
“You quibble, Dr. Seldon. Can the overall history of the human race be changed?”
“Yes. ”
“Easily?”
“No. With great difficulty. ”
“Why?”
“The psychohistoric trend of a planet-full of people contains a huge inertia. To be
changed it must be met with something possessing a similar inertia. Either as many people
must be concerned, or, if the number of people be relatively small, enormous time for
change must be allowed. ” Hari put on his professorial tone, treating the advocate-and
anyone else who was paying attention-as students. “Do you understand?”
The advocate looked up briefly. “I think I do. Trantor need not be ruined, if a great many
people decide to act so that it will not. ”
Hari nodded professorial approval. “That is right. ”
“As many as a hundred thousand people?”
“No, sir, ” Hari replied mildly. “That is far too few. ”
“You are sure?”
"Consider that Trantor has a population of over forty billions. Consider further that the
trend leading to ruin does not belong to Trantor alone but to the Empire as a whole, and
the
Empire contains nearly a quintillion human beings. "
The advocate appeared thoughtful. “I see. Then perhaps a hundred thousand people can
change the trend, if they and their descendants labor for five hundred years. ” He gave a
curious undershot look at Hari.
“I'm afraid not. Five hundred years is too short a time. ”
The advocate seemed to find this a revelation. “Ah! In that case, Dr. Seldon, we are left
with this deduction to be made from your statements. You have gathered one hundred
thousand people within the confines of your Project. These are insufficient to change the
history of Trantor within five hundred years. In other words, they cannot prevent the
destruction of Trantor no matter what they do. ”
Hari found the line of questioning unproductive, and said in an undertone, “You are
unfortunately correct. I wish-”
But the advocate bore in. “And on the other hand, your hundred thousand are intended for
no illegal purpose. ”
“Exactly. ”
The advocate stepped back, fastened a benevolent gaze on Hari, then said, slowly and with
smug satisfaction, “In that case, Dr. Seldon-now attend, sir, most carefully, for we want
a considered answer. ” He suddenly thrust out a well-manicured finger and shrilled: “What
is the purpose of your hundred thousand?”
The advocate's voice had grown strident. He had sprung his trap, backed Seldon into a
corner, hounded him so astutely there would be no possibility of giving a convincing
response.
The baronial audience of peers seemed to find this drama very convincing. They hummed like
bees, and the Commissioners moved as one to witness Hari's discomfiture-all but Linge
Chen. Chen licked his lips once, delicately, and narrowed his eyes. Hari saw the Chief
Commissioner glance at him briefly, but other-
wise, Chen gave no reaction. He appeared stiffly bored. Hari found some sympathy for Chen.
At least he had the intelligence to realize the advocate was sniffing over infertile
ground. He waited for the audience to quiet. Hari knew how to deliver lines in a drama, as
well.
“To minimize the effects of that destruction. ” He spoke clearly and softly, and, as he
had intended, the Commissioners and their class peers fell silent to catch his words.
“I did not hear you, Professor Seldon. ” The advocate leaned in, cupped hand to ear. Hari
repeated his words in a very loud voice, emphasizing “destruction. ” Boon winced one more
time.
The advocate pulled back and looked at the Commissioners and the peers, as if hoping they
would confirm his own suspicions. “And exactly what do you mean by that?” “The explanation
is simple. ”
“I'm willing to bet it is not, ” the advocate said, and the peers chuckled and rustled
among themselves.
Hari ignored the provocation, but kept silent until the advocate finally said, “Do go on. ”
“Thank you. The coming destruction of Trantor is not an event in itself, isolated in the
scheme of human development. It will be the climax to an intricate drama which was begun
centuries ago and which is accelerating in pace continuously. I refer, gentlemen, to the
developing decline and fall of the Galactic Empire. ”
The peers shouted derision out loud, all in support of the Commissioners. They all had
contracts and even marriage relations with the Chens. This was the blood the advocate had
hoped to heat; and Hari's the blood he hoped to spill, from Hari's own lips.
The advocate, aghast, shouted over the tumult. “You are openly declaring that-”
“Treason!” the peers shouted over and over, a many-voiced, staccato bellow.
They're not bored now, Hari thought.
Linge Chen waited for a few moments with gavel lifted.
Then, slowly, in two downward jerks, he let drop and pro-luced a mellifluous gong. The
audience grew silent, but eserved the right to shuffle and rustle.
The advocate drew out his words in professional astonish-nent. “Do you realize, Dr.
Seldon, that you are speaking of an Empire that has stood for twelve thousand years,
through all he vicissitudes of the generations, and which has behind it the good wishes
and love of a quadrillion human beings?”
Hari replied slowly, as if educating children. “I am aware both of the present status and
the past history of the Empire. Without disrespect, I must claim a far better knowledge of
it than any in this room. ”
Several of the peers took exception to Hari's words. This time, Chen gaveled them to quick
silence, and even the shut-ling ceased.
“And you predict its ruin?”
“It is a prediction which is made by mathematics. I pass 10 moral judgments. Personally, I
regret the prospect. Even if : he Empire were admitted to be a bad thing (an admission I
do not make), the state of anarchy which would follow its fall would be worse. ” Hari
examined the peers, sought out individual faces, as he would have in a classroom. They met
his eyes resentfully. He kept his tone level and reasonable, without drama. “It is that
state of anarchy which my Project is pledged to fight. The fall of Empire, gentlemen, is a
massive thing, however, and not easily fought. It is dictated by a rising bureaucracy, a
receding initiative, a freezing of caste, a damming of curiosity-a hundred other factors.
It has been going on, as I have said, for centuries, and it is too majestic and massive a
movement to stop. ”
The peers listened closely. Hari thought he saw a glint of recognition in more than a few
of the faces in that small crowd.
The advocate swooped again, hands out, incredulous. “I it not obvious to anyone that the
Empire is as strong as it eve was?”
The peers kept silent, and the Commissioners look& away. Hari had struck a nerve. Still,
Chen did not seem to care.
“The appearance of strength is all about you, ” Hari said “It would seem to last forever.
However, Mr. Advocate, the rotten tree trunk, until the very moment when the storm blast
breaks it in two, has all the appearance of might it even had. The storm blast whistles
through the branches of the Empire even now. Listen with the ears of psychohistory, an you
will hear the creaking. ”
The advocate now became aware that the peers and the Commissioners were no longer
impressed by his theatrics. Hari was having an effect on them. Every day they saw more
tiles give out in the domed ceil, more decay in the transport systems-and the end of
affordable luxuries imported from the restive food allies. Every day came news of systems
tacitly opting out of the Imperial economy, to form their own self-sufficient and vastly
more efficient units. He tried to recover his ground with a rebuke. “We are not here, Dr.
Seldon, to lis-”
Hari leaped in. He faced the Commissioners. Boon lifted a finger, opened his lips, but
Hari knew what he was doing. “The Empire will vanish and all its good with it. Its
accumulated knowledge will decay and the order it has imposed will vanish Interstellar
wars will be endless; interstellar trade will decay population will decline; worlds will
lose touch with the main body of the Galaxy. -And so matters will remain. ”
The professorial tone, brusque and matter-of-fact, seemed to stun the advocate, who was
after all in his late youth, with many years ahead of him. He seemed to have lost track of
his argument.
The peers were silent as frightened bats in the depths of £ cave.
The advocate's voice seemed hollow and small. “Surely, Pro-essor Seldon, not... Forever?”
Hari had been preparing for this moment for decades. How many times had he rehearsed just
such a scene in bed, before sleep? How many times had he wondered if he was falling into
martyr complex, anticipating such a scene?
A specific memory came to mind, distracting him for a moment: talking with Dors about what
he would say when the Empire finally noticed him, finally became desperate enough and
uneasy enough to accuse him of treason.
His throat tightened, and he took a small breath, concealing is distress, relaxing. Only a
couple of seconds passed.
“Psychohistory, which can predict the fall, can make state-nents concerning the succeeding
Dark Ages. The Empire, gen-lemen, as has just been said, has stood twelve thousand years.
The dark ages to come will endure not twelve, but thirty thou-and years. A Second Empire
will rise, but between it and our civilization will be one thousand generations of
suffering humanity. We must fight that. ”
The peers were transfixed.
The advocate, at a signal from the Commissioner to Chen's right, pulled himself together
and said briskly, if not with great strength, “You contradict yourself. You said earlier
that you could not prevent the destruction of Trantor; hence, presumably, the fall; -the
so-called fall of the Empire. ”
“I do not say now that we can prevent the fall. ”
The advocate's eyes almost pleaded with him to say something reassuring, not for Hari's
sake, but for the sake of Ms own children, his family.
Hari knew it was time to offer a touch of hope-and confirm the importance of his own
services. "But it is not yet too late to shorten the interregnum which will follow. It is
possible, gentlemen, to reduce the duration of anarchy to a single millennium, if my group
is allowed to act now. We are at a delicate moment in history. The huge, onrushing mass of
events must be deflected just a little-just a little-it cannot be much, but it may be
enough to remove twenty-nine thou sand years of misery from human history. "
The advocate found such timescales unsatisfying. “How do you propose to do this?”
“By saving the knowledge of the race. The sum of human knowing is beyond any one man, any
thousand men. With the destruction of our social fabric, science will be broken into
million pieces. Individuals will know much of exceedingly tin facets of what there is to
know. They will be helpless and use less by themselves. The bits of lore, meaningless,
will not be passed on. They will be lost through the generations. But, if we now prepare a
giant summary of all knowledge, it will never be lost. Coming generations will build on
it, and will not have to rediscover it for themselves. One millennium will do the work of
thirty thousand. ”
“All this-”
“All my Project, ” Hari said firmly, “my thirty thousand men with their wives and
children, are devoting themselves to the preparation of an Encyclopedia Galactica. They
will not complete it in their lifetimes. I will not even live to set it fairly begun. But
by the time Trantor falls, it will be com-plete and copies will exist in every major
library in the Galaxy. ”
The advocate stared at Hari as if he were either a saint 01 a monster. Chen let the gavel
fall again, off center. Some of the peers jerked at the sharp clang.
The advocate knew the truth of what Hari was saying; they all knew the Empire was failing,
some knew it was already dead. Hari felt a hollow, prickling sadness to be once again,
always and always and again, the bearer of bad tidings. How nice it would be not to think
of death and decay, to be elsewhere, on Helicon perhaps, learning anew how to live without
fear beneath the sky-the sky! To actu-. ally see those things I use as metaphor-a tree,
wind, a