Red Phoenix Burning (5 page)

“US Forces Korea Headquarters. Chief of Staff’s office. How may I help you, sir or ma’am?”

“This is Brigadier General Christopher at Seventh Air Force. I need to speak with Major General O’Rourke immediately.”

“Yes, sir!” exclaimed the woman. “Stand by while I put you through.”

Seconds later, a tired voice came on the line. “Hey Tony, what can I do for you?”

“Dan, we have a major situation developing on the DMZ. Multiple UAVs are showing elements of the KPA First, Second, and Fifth Corps withdrawing from the DMZ and heading north. I’ve issued an alert based on this information to all CFC units.”

The initial response to Tony’s report was dead silence. When O’Rourke finally spoke again, his voice was tense. “Please repeat your last message.”

Tony grinned. He couldn’t blame the other man for wanting to hear it again. If he hadn’t seen the UAV video with his own eyes, he wouldn’t have believed it either.

“We have multiple Mike Quebec Niner eyes on target,” Tony said patiently, emphasizing every word. “They’re showing elements of the First, Second, and Fifth Forward Army Corps on the move. These units are heading north, I repeat, heading north, away from the DMZ. I’ve ordered an alert sent to all CFC units.”

“The NKs are pulling back from the DMZ? That doesn’t make any sense,” O’Rourke said flatly.

Tony shrugged. “I hear you, Dan, but that doesn’t change the facts. The North Koreans are abandoning their positions along the DMZ in droves.”

“Okay, okay, can you send me some video clips? I need to get this to General Fascione ASAP!”

“I’ve already got the Sixth Intel Squadron watch team putting together a representative collection,” replied Tony. “I was going to walk you through a couple of shots on the video link but I couldn’t get through to your account.”

An exasperated sigh came from the other end of the phone line. “Yeah, my computer’s been disconnected. The headquarters element is moving from Yongsan Garrison to Camp Humphreys this week and this whole place is completely FUBAR. Have the Sixth IS send the clips to the USFK watch officer and he’ll get them uploaded for the bigwigs. They should be convening here in about an hour.”

“Will do.” Tony hesitated for just a second. “But, look, please do me a favor and tell my boss
before
he sees the videos in the conference room, okay? Blindsiding a superior isn’t my normal operating procedure, and I really don’t want to do that to General Carter with less than a month on the job—it could make for a strained relationship.”

“No problem,” O’Rourke assured him.

“Thanks, Dan,” Tony replied. Out of the corner of his eye, he noticed a set of waving arms trying to get his attention. At the other end of the room, the Sixth IS major pointed to his watch and then held up five fingers. Tony nodded and gave the man the “okay” sign. “You’ll have the video clips in about five minutes.”

“Great. That’ll do just fine, thanks,” O’Rourke said. Then, in a lower voice, he asked, “Look, do you have any wild ass theories as to why they’re moving away from the DMZ?”

Tony sighed and shook his head. “This withdrawal goes against everything I thought I knew about North Korea. It just doesn’t make any sense. But if you want wild speculation, I can come up with two possible scenarios. Either we are seeing one of the best fake-out maneuvers in history, or something has gone seriously wrong inside the DPRK. Neither of those bode well for our long-term health and well-being.”

16 August 2015

US Forces Korea Headquarters, Yongsan Garrison

Seoul, South Korea

The USFK conference room was filled to capacity and then some. The twelve leather chairs surrounding the main table were occupied by either an American or a Republic of Korea general officer. The more junior staff officers were bunched together in four rows of seats at the back of the room or lined up against the walls. All watched with rapt attention as Brigadier General George Olsen, the USFK intelligence officer, or J2, narrated the video clips sent up from Osan.

“In this clip, you can see elements of the Fifth Corps heading north toward Wonsan along Asian Highway 6. Based on rough estimates of column length, we’re looking at brigade-size units. Those vehicles are also packed in pretty close to each other, and they’re moving damned fast, considering it was still dark when this video was shot. Whatever the North Koreans are up to, they are in one hell of a hurry.”

“What types of vehicles were seen heading north?” General Ji Sang-hoon, chief of the ROK Air Force, asked.

“In this clip, sir, all the vehicles appear to be two-and-a-half-ton utility trucks, basically troop carriers. The majority of the other videos show the same thing,” Olsen told him. “But we’ve seen tanks, Chinese Type 69s, Russian T-62s or the North Korean Chonma-ho variants, in battalion strength, in two other clips. That’s on the order of sixty tanks on the road, and they’re heading toward Pyongyang.”

“That would suggest division-level redeployment, wouldn’t it, George?” observed Lieutenant General Robert Tracy, commander of the US Eighth Army.

Olsen nodded. “That’s our current assessment. Based on some very rough OOB accounting, we’re estimating that between five and seven regular infantry divisions are currently on the move. This represents about one-third to one-half the regular strength of the three Forward Army corps along the DMZ. And I must remind you that this only takes into account what we’re able to see. The true extent of the North Korean redeployment could be even larger.”

A low murmur broke out as the men and women crowding the room began talking with their neighbors. The J2 waited until the noise had settled down before wrapping up his presentation. “Are there any other questions?”

“Just the most important one, George,” chimed in General Thomas Fascione, commander of the Combined Forces Command, and Commander, US Forces Korea. “Why?”

Olsen shrugged. “To be honest, sir, we don’t know. The best theory we can come up with, based largely on the UAV footage, the incident at the Joint Security Area late last night, and the complete shutdown of North Korean radio and TV, is that there may have been a coup.”

Speaking through a translator, the ROK Army Chief of Staff, General Yeon Min-soo, strongly disagreed. “Are you suggesting, General Olsen, that the North would dramatically reduce its combat strength on the DMZ to deal with a coup attempt? Surely the Pyongyang Defense Command and the KPA Third Corps are more than capable of dealing with such a situation!”

The American intelligence officer nodded. “That’s true, sir. Those units should have been quite capable of dealing with a coup attempt.” He paused briefly. “But what we are suggesting is that the coup was successful.”

For a brief moment, there was dead silence. But then the room erupted as officers reacted to Olsen’s statement. Voices rose as individuals either agreed with him, or flatly dismissed the possibility as absurd. Many of the South Koreans were visibly shocked by the notion of a sudden regime change in Pyongyang. Only General Park Joon-ho, the Deputy Commander of the ROK-US Combined Forces Command, remained calm.

“Gentlemen, ladies!” a deep voice roared. “Quiet!”

Broad-shouldered and bull-necked, Fascione still looked more like the West Point linebacker he had been than the clear-eyed strategist who had pacified two die-hard provinces in Iraq. He was taller than anyone else in the room. He also outranked them all.

The noise subsided almost immediately. Fascione turned back toward his intel chief and said, “That’s one hell of a hypothesis, George. If that’s true, we may be facing a possible civil war in North Korea.”

Olsen looked very uncomfortable. He knew he had gone way out on a limb. “Yes, sir, I realize that is the logical conclusion of our analysis.”

“General Olsen,” interrupted Ji. “By your own admission, your order of battle analysis on these withdrawing units is very rough. And you also said the redeployment could be even greater, correct?”

“Yes, sir, that’s an accurate summation,” the J2 agreed slowly.

The ROK Air Force commander smiled thinly. “Then is it not just as possible that we are only looking on the dark side of things, and that the situation is not as grave as your worst-case scenario suggests? Is there any other information that bolsters this . . . theory . . . of yours?”

Before Olsen could reply, Rear Admiral Gabriel Waleski, commander of the US Navy units stationed in South Korea, raised his hand. “General Fascione, if I may?”

“Go ahead, Gabe.”

Waleski nodded his thanks and looked around the crowded conference room. “When I arrived at Yongsan Garrison this morning, I was handed an urgent message from one of our submarines patrolling off the North Korean coast, near Wonsan. The commanding officer reports intercepting verbal orders given by a North Korean army officer for his troops to attack their own naval base headquarters. The submarine also observed multiple explosions near the base. It would appear that North Korean military units
are
, in fact, fighting each other—at least at Wonsan.”

Ji was momentarily surprised by Waleski’s report, but he regained his composure quickly and bowed slightly. “Admiral, I would very much like to read this report. Would it be possible for your government to release it to us?”

Waleski nodded. “Absolutely. I’ve already been given permission by my CNO to share this report with our ROK counterparts. Admiral Ban will have a copy before he leaves.”

Pleased by Waleski’s gracious response, Ji bowed again, silently expressing his thanks.

“Anyone else have any last questions before I give you your running orders?” Fascione asked.

“Yes, sir, I do,” Tracy replied. The Eighth Army commander turned to face the South Korean general who was Fascione’s deputy. “General Park, is there any new information from the defector that our people rescued at Panmunjom?”

Park’s expression remained stoic as most of the assembled officers looked at him with amazement. This was the first they’d heard that someone had actually survived the slaughtered convoy as it attempted to flee the DPRK.

“Unfortunately, General Tracy,” the South Korean said slowly, “the young woman was very badly injured. She had suffered multiple gunshot wounds. Our National Intelligence Service agents only had a few moments with her before she went in for surgery. To my understanding, she is still in the operating room.”

“Did the NIS agents get anything, sir?” Tracy’s voice had a bit of an edge to it.

Park shrugged. “They were only able to obtain her identity, along with the identities of those traveling with her. Her name is Lee Ji-young. She is the daughter of senior politburo member Lee Ye-jun.”

It was the Americans’ turn to be astonished. Fascione and Olsen, however, looked more annoyed.

“That’s not an insignificant detail, General,” Fascione responded tightly. “And one that should have been made known earlier.”

Park shrugged again, apologetically this time. “Forgive me, but at the time the significance wasn’t obvious.” He looked at the Americans. “It is not exactly a rare event when a high-ranking Communist Party official defects.”

“I grant your point, sir,” Tracy countered. “But my chief of the headquarters battalion was the guy who pulled this Lee Ji-young out of that car. And it was only one of
seven
cars that attempted to run the checkpoint, which
is
unusual. Colonel Little also specifically reported that woman was lucid when he carried her across the Bridge of No Return. And he stated that she said something like ‘the burning has begun’ before passing out.”

Park’s face hardened. Clearly, he did not appreciate where this conversation was going. “I was unaware of her reported statement, General Tracy. But now that I know of it, I would agree that it supports our J2’s theory.”

“Particularly since Lee Ye-jun was a staunch supporter of the Kim family,” Olsen said flatly.

Fascione abruptly intervened. From the look on his face, the USFK commander was not inclined to see the disagreement descend into bickering.

“Let’s get beyond this, people,” he snapped. “Our two governments are going to be breathing down our necks in the very near future. General Park and I need your best assessments, pronto. Is that clear?”

Heads nodded all around the room.

“Good.” Fascione ticked off what he wanted. “First, is Kim Jong-un still alive? Second, if he’s dead, who the hell is running things in Pyongyang? Or are various contenders for the throne still duking it out? Third, who controls the DPRK’s nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons?”

He turned to Olsen. “George, get with your ROK counterparts and put together a point paper that fleshes out your theory. Don’t give us the
Encyclopedia Britannica
version. Make it short and sweet, but highlight why you believe it’s likely that a North Korean civil war has started. Then answer those other questions I just rattled off.”

The J2 nodded somberly.

“And I want a draft on my desk in three hours,” Fascione ordered.

There were soft whistles from around the room. In the usual run of things at headquarters, just deciding who should be on the distribution list for a report like this often took longer.

“As of this moment, people, we are on a war footing,” said Fascione bluntly. He eyed them coldly. “And if you think I’m overreacting, I suggest you talk to Lieutenant Colonel Miller’s widow.”

That shut them up.

“The rest of you begin your planning on the working assumption that North Korea is imploding,” Fascione continued. “If so, what options do we have to deal with this mess?”

He looked around the room. “Don’t forget that we may have to worry about a lot more than the pure military side of this. If the DPRK falls apart, we’ll be facing a flood of refugees across the DMZ; in the tens or hundreds of thousands, possibly even in the millions. Where the hell will we put them? And how in God’s name will we feed and care for them?”

Fascione’s jaw tightened. For a moment, he looked his age. “We may be facing the most dangerous situation on the Korean Peninsula since the last war.” He stood up. “Only this time, those sons of bitches in Pyongyang have nukes. So we have to get this right.”