“You think Liu is attempting the same thing here?” Roddy asked.
“It can’t be,” Lauren opined. “We saw the gold at the warehouse.”
“And it was on the television,” Roddy said. “A big ceremony earlier today with President Quintero where he showed off a bunch of newly minted bars for the media. They even had a new Republic of Panama seal.”
“We all saw gold, yes. That doesn’t mean it came from the mine. The geologic evidence I saw from the culvert doesn’t support a gold vein anywhere near where they’re working.
If you want, I can bore you with details, but it won’t change the fact that the gold we saw came from someplace else. Trust me.”
“Don’t forget the gravel was being shipped to the mine from a ship,” Harry added. “That kind of supports Mercer’s theory.”
“Right. More props for Liu’s stage. I recall it seemed high in quartz, one of gold’s trace elements, so it probably came from an active gold mine. Liu would want samples on hand in case someone gets too interested in his mine. More proof they’d hit the mother lode.”
“If the gold isn’t from the mine, and it isn’t part of the Twice-Stolen Treasure from the lake, where did it come from?”
Foch had hit the crux of the enigma.
“I’d guess the same place the gravel came from,” Mercer said. “China.”
Lauren’s face creased with confusion. “But why? This seems too elaborate for investment fraud.”
“I don’t think it is.” Mercer shrugged. “I don’t know what he’s up to.”
“What about a smuggling operation?” Harry offered. “What if they’re going to use the mine operation as a cover for sneaking that Inca treasure out of Panama?”
“I’d considered that,” Mercer said. “But if Liu planned to smuggle out all the gold, why legitimize his discovery at all? Why not just take the gold from the lake and ship it straight back to China? By pretending it came from the mine, he has to pay a good portion of the proceeds to Panama’s government in licenses and taxes. He’d lose half the gold’s value plus the expense of creating the mine in the first place. He’s too slick for that. It has to be something else.”
“What?”
“Let us look at the facts.” Roddy ticked off his fingers as he spoke. “The Chinese have built a fake gold mine. They have brought in gold and ore, probably from China, to make it appear legitimate while they look for a huge treasure buried near the River of Ruin. Once they find the Twice-Stolen Treasure they will likely pretend that that gold came from the mine. By reporting it as coming from the mine, he will have to pay tens or hundreds of millions of dollars unnecessarily. Do we agree so far?”
The others nodded, waiting for Roddy to continue, believing he’d found a pattern.
“Well, those are the facts.” The former canal pilot lowered his fist. “I am sorry I don’t know what they mean either.”
Amid the defeated exhalations, another round of drinks was poured. Miguel had fallen asleep against Mercer, his smooth face turned away from the light, his snores soft in the adults’ frustrated silence.
“What could Liu gain by just giving all that money to the government?”
“More local power than he already has.”
Roddy shook off Foch’s suggestion. “With the amount of money Hatcherly Consolidated has poured into my country, Liu already has as much power as any man in Panama. Unless he wants to be named emperor or something.”
Lauren picked up the thread. “Plus, if he wants to get further into President Quintero’s good graces he could simply turn over all the treasure. Once they find it,” she added.
“You’re saying that Liu wants to maintain control of the gold so he can dole it out more slowly?” Harry’s question was answered with a nod. “Well, we all know that politicians have pretty short memories. Let’s say Liu gives them the treasure all at once. What do you bet in a year none of ’em recall Liu’s generosity when he wants the go-ahead on some other scheme? By holding back part of the gold he can keep Quintero or whoever’s in power on a pretty tight leash.”
Foch suddenly saw what Harry had figured out. “By keeping them grateful, he can keep them, ah, obedient, yes?”
“For years.”
“No,” Mercer said. “For as long as the treasure lasts. The supply isn’t inexhaustible.”
“Ah, guys,” Lauren drawled, inspiration flashing in her magical bicolored eyes. “What if we’re coming at this backwards.”
“What do you mean?” Foch accepted a cigarette from Harry.
“We’re assuming that Liu’s plan is to just give money to Panama in exchange for some later concession. But Roddy mentioned that Hatcherly already walks on water in the government’s eyes and I’ve heard pretty much the same thing since I rotated in. Hatcherly doesn’t need to give them anything.” She paused, as if unsure.
“Okay.” Mercer drew out the word to help her draw out the idea.
“Rather than ask something of Panama later, what if they plan to take away something now and use the treasure to compensate?”
“You’re talking about the canal?”
“What else?” She gathered herself, warming to the wild idea as she explained. “Think about it. Hatcherly is just going to give the government millions of dollars in gold when they could have just snuck it out of the country. They already control container ports, a pipeline, the railroad, and a dozen other businesses. The only thing they don’t directly run is the canal. Maybe the gold is payment to take it over too.”
“Captain Vanik,” Roddy interrupted, “the Canal Authority pays my government roughly two hundred and thirty million dollars a year. If Liu is given control of the waterway he might be able to match that in gold revenue for a couple of years, but like Mercer said, the treasure will eventually run out. And then what?”
He’d pointed out a fatal flaw in her idea but she refused to give up. She was convinced she was on to something. “Maybe they only want control for a couple of years.”
“Why?”
“I don’t know.” She blew a frustrated breath. “Maybe they want to shut it down or something.”
“They couldn’t do it.” Roddy was on familiar territory and spoke with authority. “Part of the treaty that handed the canal back to Panama was that the United States maintains the right to use military force if open navigation is threatened by an overt act. If Liu intentionally shut down the canal American marines would hit the beaches within days to reopen it.”
“I thought I read somewhere that U.S. intervention is dependent on Panama allowing them to land,” Foch said.
“That’s just a technicality,” Roddy said, dismissing the idea.
And then Mercer saw the whole thing. It was as if Liu’s entire operational plan was laid out in front of him. He knew exactly what the Chinese were after. He’d been leaning back in his chair and shifted so suddenly the legs snapped against the floor. “It is a technicality, yes, but a very important one. If a shutdown isn’t an overt act, the U.S. can’t come in without an invitation.” He focused on Roddy because of the former canal pilot’s expertise. “Let’s say Liu wants temporary control of the canal but can’t act in the open. His next best option would be some covert act of sabotage. Something short-term that won’t look suspicious and can’t be tracked back to him.”
“All right.” Dubious, Roddy had seen enough of Mercer to go along with him.
“How would he do it?”
“Oh, God, I’ve never really thought about it before. The obvious thing is going after the locks, but they’re so massive that anything short of a nuclear strike can be repaired in a couple of months.”
“Too short of a time frame,” Harry interjected. “And not very covert either.”
“The Gatun Dam on the Atlantic coast is what holds back all the water ships use to transit the canal. It’s vulnerable. During World War Two there were antitorpedo nets strung in front of it and antiaircraft artillery emplacements around it. Boats today are kept away by law and buoys.”
“Is there any way to damage it?”
“Oh, sure, ram a ship into the spillway. Problem is that such a breach would likely drain a few million acre-feet of Lake Gatun, the canal’s reservoir.”
“Overkill,” Mercer thought aloud.
“Overkill,” Roddy agreed. “It would take many years for natural rainfall to refill the lake to the point ships could cross the isthmus again.”
“So what does that leave us?”
“That leaves the Gaillard Cut, the canal’s narrowest point.” With a pencil Roddy sketched out the shape of Lake Gatun and the canal. Like a twisting tentacle growing from the body of an amoeba, the main part of the waterway stretched from the lake and wended between the continental divide on its way to the Pacific Ocean. Where the canal was its narrowest, between two mountains he labeled Contractor’s and Gold, he wrote in its width: 624 feet. “It looks like a big number,” the pilot added, “but it really isn’t when you consider a lot of the ships we move through there are a third longer than the cut is wide. Those mountains loom over even the tallest vessel and it’s like an oven in there during the summer with heat radiating down into the cut. Even with the widening, it’s too tight to allow the big PANAMAX ships cross-directional passage.”
“I’ve seen the cut,” Lauren said as she looked at the rough drawing. “It would take a hell of an explosion to blow enough rubble into the water to block it. During the widening project completed in 2001 the final blast used something like sixty thousand pounds of explosives.”
“You forget it was spread over a few hundred yards of the canal,” Roddy countered. “A concentrated shot could do enough damage to at least partially fill the canal.”
“Let us say for the sake of your argument”—Foch looked at the others as he spoke—“that Liu wants to shut down the canal for a couple years while it is redredged. We still don’t know why he would do such a thing. Why jeopardize his legitimate gains in Panama with a subversive act of terrorism? What does he gain?”
“He controls the oil pipeline and railroad,” Harry replied. “With the canal out of action he’d be the only game in town. Be a hell of a business.”
“Ah, yes.” The Frenchman nodded. “He’d be able to double or even triple his freight charges. Shippers would have no choice but to pay if they wanted to avoid the extra fourteen-thousand-kilometer trip around South America.”
Mercer had already considered and rejected that motivation. “Rail tariffs represent about half as much money as Liu would give in gold subsidies to keep Panama afloat until the canal opened again. That’s not the reason, although moving freight on the trans-isthmus line could help defray some of the costs of his operation and maintain an international shipping presence here.” He turned to Lauren, who looked exhausted. “You were the first to think about Liu exchanging the Twice-Stolen Treasure in return for being allowed to knock out the canal. Any ideas?”
She stifled a yawn and shook her head. “For now I think we should worry about the how of this thing rather than the why. Liu’s strategy will reveal itself once we learn his tactics.”
Mercer smiled. “First law of combat?”
“Nope. Second law. The first is that bullets always have the right-of-way.”
This got a chuckle all around and the intensity seemed to drain from the discussion. It was nearing two in the morning, time to call it a night. Most of them had been awake for thirty hours or more.
Lieutenant Foch declined Roddy’s offer for he and his men to spend the night. The Legionnaires had to return to their safe house and face whatever punishment Bruneseau had for their disobeying orders.
“Will you still be able to help us?” If he was going to stop Liu, Mercer desperately needed the Legion’s help. It showed in his voice.
“I do not know. Until a few weeks ago Bruneseau was a stranger to us.”
“You
will
tell him what we’ve learned?” Lauren asked in a tone as desperate as Mercer’s.
“I will tell him. It may do no good. I get the feeling that he is more interested in his career than, ah, what is your saying, sticking out his neck.” Then he added soberly, “I do not concern myself with legalities in this matter. I don’t need enough evidence to convince a court of law that Liu is dangerous. However we have yet to gather enough proof to convince anybody of anything. This is all speculation on our part. Captain Vanik, would you be comfortable bringing this to your superiors?”
She was embarrassed to admit that she wouldn’t.
“You understand my difficulty as well. Bruneseau’s only concern was the missing nuclear waste. I do not believe we will be able to change his mind about leaving.”
“Could you talk to your superiors in the Legion?” Mercer asked.
“I am but a lieutenant,” he said, meaning any report he wrote would be filed and forgotten.
“What if we can get more proof? Something definitive?”
“I don’t know what you could find, Mercer,” the Frenchman answered honestly. “Because nothing has happened yet, there is no . . . smoking gun.” Foch looked pleased at his use of the American idiom.
Mercer swore at his own weakness. He was too tired to draw a conclusion from everything they’d discussed, even though he felt it was tantalizingly close. He closed his eyes, trying to get his mind around the solution he knew was there. His expression darkened and Lauren placed a concerned hand on his arm.
“Are you all right?”
“Yes, damnit!” He paused. “Sorry.”
No matter who he paid off, Liu couldn’t lace the Gaillard Cut with explosives and expect investigators to believe it was anything other than an act of terrorism. The U.S. government would come down here like the hounds of hell. How else could he do it? Come on, Mercer, come on. Think.
Oh, sure. Ram a ship into the spillway.
Roddy explaining how to breach the Gatun Dam.
The last shot used sixty thousand pounds of explosives.
Lauren talking about the canal widening.
The ore carrier I was piloting suddenly veered into the oncoming lane.
Roddy again, back in Harry’s hotel room, describing the suspicious accident that cost him his job.