IAS was headed by atomic physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer (1904–1967) who had been the scientific director of the Manhattan Project and later principal advisor to the Atomic Energy Commission.
At the IAS, the science of climate forecasting was developed, using data modelling which was the first of its kind. In order to avoid climate disasters, human intervention for balancing the weather system was advocated, though not through reducing emission via political agreements, as it is the case today, but by weather modification.
John von Neumann
Professor
John von Neumann at the Institute for Advanced Study,
who had studied mathematics at the University of Göttingen through a grant from the Rockefeller Foundation, was
a leading
advocate for using climate modification to tackle the effects of possible climate change.
Weather modification technology had been patented by the Serbian inventor
Nikola Tesla
(1856–1943). One patent was later developed further by the
U.S. military
and the defence contractor
Advanced Power Technologies, Inc., founded by
Robert O. Anderson’s
ARCO
.
119
von Neuman, a key figure in the development of
Game Theory, held the view that most natural phenomena could be expressed in mathematical terms and
suggested that whoever could provide accurate predictions about the future would also control the world.
120
This prospect was also of great interest to the U.S. military and would soon also became a priority for the ruling elite and for the many global planners, systems theorists, and futurists on their payroll. The idea later came to particularly influence the philosophy of the Club of Rome (see the Chapter 4).
von Neumann had also been involved in the Manhattan Project, a virtual playground for climate theorists. It was von Neuman who connected the threat of global nuclear war with the threat of climate change. In 1955 he made the following prophecy:
Intervention in atmospheric and climatic matters… will unfold on a scale difficult to imagine at present… this will merge each nation’s affairs with those of every other, more thoroughly than the threat of a nuclear or any other war would have done.
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Study on Radioactivity
In 1954, the Rockefeller Foundation decided to make an independent study on radioactivity and appointed Detlev Bronk to put together a research group (
Biological Effects on Atomic Radiation
).
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The Executive Committee included RF chairman John D. Rockefeller III, Detlev Bronk, and Wallace Harrison (board members of RBF), with Dean Rusk (U.S. Secretary of State 1960–69) as president. The collaboration also included the Department of Defence, the Atomic Energy Commission (headed by Lewis Strauss), and the Medical Research Council of Great Britain.
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This resulted in six subcommittees formed in 1955 under National Academy of Sciences, with a hundred specialists in the areas
Pathology, Genetics, Meteorology, Oceanography, Agriculture, Waste
. Roger Revelle was appointed chairman of the Oceanography group while Harry Wexler chaired the Meteorology group. Tests included what effect nuclear explosions had on the weather and on the oceans.
The study, published in June 1956, revealed that radioactive radiation would stay in the upper atmosphere for years, and that this was true of almost anything released into the atmosphere (including carbon dioxide). No direct effects, however, could be found during the first decade of the Atomic Age.
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Rockefeller Foundation concluded in its
Annual Report 1956
that the panels had highlighted new problems, revealed in the initial analysis.
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These would now be studied closer.
The Great Geophysical Experiment
In April 1956, Detlev Bronk, as chairman of the National Academy of Sciences, had already appointed a national meteorologic committee that would “consider and recommend means for increasing understanding and control of the atmosphere”. The committee included, among others, Lloyd Berkner as chairman, Carl-Gustaf Rossby, Jule Charney, John von Neumann, and Edward Teller, with Roger Revelle as advisor.
Their efforts lead to the founding of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder 1960 under the leadership of solar scientist Walter Orr Roberts.
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Together with Aspen Institute, and with support from both RBF and Rockefeller Foundation, NCAR would be instrumental in bringing the climate issue to the next level during 1960s and 70s.
Revelle continued studying the phenomenon and connected it to the theory of pioneers Plass and Callendar, of the heating effect of carbon dioxide. Early the same year he testified before a Congressional Hearing about how the human-induced increase of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere in effect was a huge geophysical experiment.
In connection with the upcoming International Geophysical Year (IGY), Revelle then sought Federal funding for studying how this CO
2
increase was affecting global temperatures.
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The application was granted, and Wexler, who was also head of the Research Department at the U.S. Weather Bureau, secured the funding.
Scripps thereby became a central node in the IGY atmospheric carbon dioxide programme. Charles Keeling (1928–2005) from California Institute of Technology was recruited for the project in July 1956.
The
Tellus Article
In September 1956, Revelle and chemist Hans Suess wrote the article “Carbon dioxide exchange between atmosphere and ocean and the question of an increase of atmospheric CO
2
during the past decades”. Rossby suggested it be submitted to
Tellus
(where Rossbys former doctoral student Bert Bolin was Editor). It got published in February 1957.
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The previous year, the article “The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change” by Gilbert Plass had also been published in
Tellus
.
129
Both articles were funded by the
Office of Naval Research
and used to
establish the climate issue
both in the scientific community and politically.
Media had also started reporting on the phenomenon. In October 1956,
New York Times
wrote that human carbon dioxide emissions could lead to a warmer climate.
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The December issue of
Time Magazine
had
C-G Rossby
on the cover, with a warning in the featured article of the consequences of human impact on the environment.
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This became his last media appearance. The following year he passed away prematurely from a heart attack, while his friend, John von Neumann, died from cancer that same year.
In his last essay, Rossby addressed the problem of carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.
It has been pointed out frequently that mankind now is performing a unique experiment of impressive planetary dimensions by now consuming during a few hundreds of years all the fossil fuel deposited during millions of years (C-G Rossby, 1959)
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The International Geophysical Year 1957–58
The International Geophysical Year (
IGY) had been proposed in 1950 by physicist Lloyd Berkner, National Academy of Sciences (NAS). It became a major international research project with participation from nations across the world. The goal was to identify important geophysical phenomena in the Earth system, including the climate as a small component.
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This resulted in a scientific satellite program.
In Sweden, the project was coordinated by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences and organised by Rossby and his assistant and former doctoral student, Bert Bolin (1925–2007).
In
the United States, NAS, under Detlev Bronk, became the c
entral node for the preparations. In 1953, Bronk appointed the U.S. National Committee for IGY with members such as
Lloyd
Berkner, Roger Revelle, and Harry Wexler.
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Funding for the American participation came from National Science Foundation.
Official host of the project was Paris-based International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU), closely related to UNESCO. As the chairman of ICSU, Lloyd Berkner could now oversee the project and would have a growing impact on climate science. In 1969, he founded the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE).
The International Geophysical Year resulted in the first breakthrough for the carbon dioxide theory. Measurements of CO
2
levels in the atmosphere were initiated at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.
The early proponents of the theory were clearly not especially alarmed over climate change. They appear rather as careerists sensing opportunities for establishing scientific institutions, making a name for themselves and gathering their own followings by being early proponents of the theory. They were curious scientists eager for more resources for new exciting projects and experiments, in collaboration with collegues abroad.
Behind them, however, were other players who saw how the theory could be exploited politically; who knew how to take advantage of some of the scientists' egos and eagerness for the limelight.
The Rossby Memorial Volume
In 1959, a memorial volume was compiled by Bert Bolin, in memory of Rossby who had passed away two years earlier.
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It also included the article “Changes in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere and sea due to fossil fuel combustion” by Bert Bolin and Erik Eriksson.
This was its first publication issued by Rockefeller Institute Press and quite an out-of-place piece for a medical institute. The publishing manager was not amused.
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Its publication can be seen as an indication of the enormous influence Detlev Bronk and the Rockefeller family had on early climate science.
The Swedish–American Climate Project
After Rossby’s death in 1957,
Bert Bolin assumed leadership of MISU
and
IMI
and followed in the footsteps of his mentor. Under Bolin,
IMI
came to play a central role in climate research before the founding of
IPCC (of which he
became chairman in 1988).
The successful collaboration on climate research would mark the beginning of a long Swedish–American affair, with a
closely interconnected
network of scientists. It was also a military project, in which Sweden became the neutral ground and would play a leading part.
In December 1957, Edward Teller
,
warned that the polar ice caps would melt due to increased carbon dioxide levels (though four decades later he would reject his earlier opinion).
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February 12, 1958, the new threat was presented to the general public in the propaganda film
The Unchained Goddess
, produced by Frank Capra for the telephone company AT&T/Bell Laboratories. The film was shown in schools and other institutions. One of the scientific advisors was Warren Weaver from Rockefeller Foundation.
138
After the climate issue had been raised in institutions which had come about with funding from the Rockefeller charities – supported by
National Academy of Sciences,
Office of Naval Research, and the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (1946–75)
–
the Rockefeller family foundations increasingly took over as it got more political implications. A new political climate was on the agenda and RBF would be leading the way.
Special Studies Project
This would be obvious in RBFs Special Studies Project. In the early 1950s, the extroverted and goal-oriented Nelson Rockefeller had been working for President Eisenhower and in 1954 became Special Assistant to the President for Foreign Affairs. His ideas, however, were not well received by the head of the CIA, Allen Dulles. In 1955, Nelson resigned from his position in the White House and turned to a forum where he would meet less resistance.
The following year, Nelson replaced his older brother, John D. III, as chairman of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, and launched the RBF Special Studies Project. It could be seen as a preparation for Nelson's political career and his aspirations to become President of the United States.
139
The project ran from 1956 to 1961 and resulted in a number of sub-reports, which analysed the problems and opportunities that the United States would be facing in the coming decades. It was a very ambitious program aiming to establish guiding principles for governing institutions on how to deal with the challenges ahead. It included eight panels for different areas: