Scaevola's Triumph (Gaius Claudius Scaevola trilogy Book 3) (22 page)

"How should I know?" one of them said, almost in disgust.

"You find out from their actions," Gaius explained. "Ask yourself, why are they fighting the war this way? What does that tell you about what they will do next?"

There was an awkward silence, and Gaius smiled inwardly as he could see the generals really had not even thought about this.

"In my view their methods give a clear indication of the nature of their objectives," Gaius continued. "Their approach makes most sense if you think of them as having divided their forces into six main battle groups and launched an invasion with six predominant targets, each directed at surprise attacks on essentially military planets. Once they win the first planet, five of the battle groups continue on, while the remaining one has divided. Some of the force is to defend the newly captured planet, while the remaining forces strike out laterally to clean up nearby space. Once all that's done, most of those ships, and all the top commanders, will proceed to some regrouping point after their task is complete. That was the reason why there was a pause. It was not so much that the invasion forces 'ran out of steam', as was suggested before, but they had become too dissipated, and out of effective contact. The concept of regrouping was to reform into battle groups, and assuming the figure six was chosen because they have six top commanders, they will reform into six further but smaller battle groups, unless they have reinforcements.

"Now here is the interesting part. If you select the eleven planets that are strongest militarily in the line of general approach, then the nine planets we now know to have been targets are the nine of those eleven. Accordingly, we can predict that these two planets will be targets," Gaius said, and pointed to the star map. "Unless I've made a mistake, if they've maintained six battle groups those two will have already been lost, and we are merely awaiting confirmation. Unless they have changed pattern for no discernible reason, there should be a twelfth target. What can that be? Unless there is something really special about one of these I don't know about," and again he pointed out a zone, "the only rational target for the twelfth attack is Ulse itself. If that is so, the attack is already well on the way, and Ulse should get ready to do something about it."

As Gaius sat down he noticed that the Ulsians were quite derisive about the suggestion, but the hairy alien was staring at him in perhaps a thoughtful looking way. "They wouldn't dare!" one of the Ulsian generals said. "We're too strong here. They'd never have the numbers to conquer Ulse, and they must consolidate. They would never dream of attempting to conquer Ulse with merely one sixth of what's available."

As the general sat down, the other Ulsians gave him nods of encouragement. It was clear that this was not a suggestion worth following.

"I never said conquer," Gaius pointed out with a shrug. "I agree they have no chance of assembling sufficient ground troops now, unless Ulse is far weaker than I imagine. I merely said they would launch a raid, and that raid would do considerable damage to something. In my opinion, they think they can inflict enough damage on something on Ulse that will be critical to the outcome of the overall war. I don't know what it is, I don't know enough about Ulse to guess, but they must think there is something. Perhaps only one complex makes war ships? I simply don't know. What I do know is that there's a battle group that otherwise has no obvious target. Now there may be some other planet that I don't know about, and perhaps that's it, but if Ulse has any special vulnerability that's susceptible to space attack, you should really get ready for such an attack."

There was quite a hubbub amongst the Ulsians, which was finally broken up by the interviewer asking Gaius what he would recommend.

"Strengthen the local defences," Gaius said simply. "If I'm correct, that twelfth battle group must be defeated, and defeated means denying it the ability to achieve its objective."

"What nonsense!" one of the older Ulsian generals almost screamed. "That's effectively saying we do nothing but defend. We must go out and defeat the enemy, not sit and cower . . ."

Gaius tried to reply, but his voice was drowned in the hubbub. Eventually the interviewer got silence, and asked Gaius, "So you think we should resort simply to a defensive strategy? What about the other planets?"

"I should explain," Gaius said emphatically, "that I am a Roman, and the Roman army did not sit behind fortifications and wait. I totally agree Ulse has to go out there and take the initiative away from the invaders, and it has to remove the enemy from your dominions, then it has to go and defeat the enemy in its own territory. You must go on the offensive to win the war.

"Having said that," Gaius explained, "it is important not to lose the war before you worry about winning it. In my view the enemy thinks that with a single strike they can seriously damage the ability of Ulse to continue with this war if not defeat Ulse outright, and that strike is on its way. There is simply no other explanation for the way they have deployed so far. As a previous group have noted, their present extension leaves them vulnerable to flanking attacks, and they are too far away from home for rapid resupply. If what I've heard is correct, they do not have the strength to defeat Ulse by attrition when fighting here, and we have a fairly good assessment of their strength. From the intelligence I have seen, this attack has not been followed up by additional supplies of ground troops.

"The three second-wave attacks we know about have had depleted forces devoted to them, and the next two planets have relatively minor defences. The sixth part of their fleet is clearly far stronger than any of the other parts. Why? Why deploy attacks on critical planets with depleted forces, with the risks that you might fail early, unless ships must be saved for the major part of the strike. Why leave your flanks open? Why overextend to such a degree? Why the rush? As I said, there must be something that makes all this risk worth while, and that can only mean that there is something, in their view, that makes their attacking this way to be so desirable. Ulse is the only target that makes sense, so Ulse has to decide what it has that is so vulnerable, and protect it so well that this scheme must fail."

"Even if that's true," the older general said, "the answer's simple. We take a fleet out and meet them, and defeat them out there."

There was general agreement to that, so the interviewer turned to Gaius, and asked for a response.

"Quite sensible," Gaius said, then added dryly, "if you succeed."

This brought howls of protest. When this died down, Gaius continued, "Where is this fleet coming from, and why must it travel in a straight line. Why can't it go past and to one side, circle a star, and come back? Think about the geometry! The further out you defend, the worse the problem. Double the distance, quadruple the surface area you're covering. So, does it hurt to strengthen home defences? Just in case something goes wrong?"

"You must throw everything you have at the critical point," the Krothian offered. "In my view your Roman is correct, at least in one sense. There is an unaccounted for attack. We don't know the target, but if your Roman is correct, it is here. In any case, does anyone have a better suggestion of where they're headed?"

There were no better suggestions, and the program ended on that note. The Ulsian Generals got up and after giving what Gaius interpreted as looks of contempt, they stormed out.

Gaius was just about to get up, when he saw the Krothian standing before him.

"I understand you don't like me," came the translation from the Tin Man.

"I don't know you," Gaius replied simply.

"I understand you were to be sold into a zoo on my home planet."

"So I understand," Gaius replied coldly.

"I wish to let you know," the alien said stiffly, "that sentient creatures are not held in our zoos. We do, however, acquire certain criminals from some cultures. I have been told that was what was represented in your case."

"That's not true!" Gaius said, then he suddenly realized that that was ambiguous. "What I meant," he hastily corrected, "was that we are not criminals."

"That is fully accepted," the alien said. "For what it is worth, the managers of that zoo have been required to ensure that no other non-criminal elements are present, and there are no other of your species there. My government wishes to apologize to you and your family if you feel that we in any way contributed to your problem."

Gaius was somewhat surprised. It was somewhat unlikely that a world that collected species could really be considered innocent, or for that matter, would care what he, Gaius, thought. This must be a move to soften the embarrassment with Ulse, and they needed Gaius' help. If he wished to be an embarrassment . . .

No! There was no point in making yet another enemy. He looked towards the alien, then said, "Apology accepted, but it isn't necessary. I fully accept that my problems, as you put it, were generated solely by the alien that captured me."

"Good," the Krothian said, then added, "Of course you realize that nobody who was alive when the request was sent could conceivably be alive when the reply arrives."

"That would make the life of an ambassador easier," Gaius said with a smile.

There was a stunned silence, and the Tin Man had to explain that this was an attempt at being light-hearted. Then the Krothian gave a roar that the Tin Man translated as accepting the funny side of the remark, then the alien and the Tin Man began an extended conversation. Gaius was just about to wonder how he was to get out of that room, when the Tin Man turned towards him and said, "Admiral Merly is the Krothian military attaché, and he has certain supplies, which include something which translates very roughly as wine. It's made from a Krothian plant rather than grapes, but you and your family can drink it without adverse effects. Would you like some?"

"I would indeed," Gaius replied. While he realized the drink might not be very pleasant, he had decided that if there was any chance of making friends with someone with influence, he should take it. The Ulsians may not let him return, but clearly the Krothians also had ships. "Please thank the Admiral from me."

"Of course," the Tin Man said.

* * *

"Well," Vipsania smiled when Gaius returned, "if that didn't stir them up, nothing will."

For a few days, it appeared that nothing would. Nothing happened, apart from a trial bottle of wine appearing. At first they thought its taste a little strange, but over the evening it grew on them, and Gaius asked the Tin Man to thank Admiral Merly, and to inform him that this was truly a delightful drink. Nothing happened for a few days, then suddenly some crates of wine appeared. Something good had happened.

Gaius returned to the set, but again he found that his contributions were of limited value, in fact he later found out that Lucilla had felt the need to spend quite a bit of time 'tidying up' his work. The problem was, given that Ulse was at war, he felt that this particular play the two had chosen to do next was totally inappropriate. Wives on strike during a war? Yes, Vipsania and Lucilla were trying to make a point, but to whom?

There had been quite some discussion before they chose to do this play. Lucilla had remarked that the Ulsian men and women were so similar it was impossible to tell them apart. Vipsania had snorted that it was probably because the wives were locked up at home. It was not that they looked the same, but rather they had never seen a female Ulsian. Gaius had tried to settle this matter by asking the Tin Man, and the only response he had received was the Tin Man turned himself off.

"Typical uncooperative male!" Lucilla snorted.

"I notice," Gaius remarked dryly, "that back in Rome you accepted things as they were."

"And look where blind obedience to a husband got me," Lucilla snorted. "If I hadn't done what a good Roman wife does and obey my husband, neither Vipsania nor I would have left Rome, you wouldn't have had to embark on that rescue, and we'd all be back on Earth where we belong."

"But we are here," Gaius protested, "so even if you're right, and the Ulsian men do rule their wives with a rod of iron, the fact is we're still guests here, and we have no right to try to change their traditions."

In the end they agreed to disagree. Since Vipsania and Lucilla were, arguably, doing the most to earn them access to luxuries, Gaius felt he had to leave them to it. Despite this strikingly new independent spirit , the two women were at least happy. Gaius knew that that happy situation would only last as long as they were fully occupied, doing what they wanted to do.

In effect, he had to admit that as a Roman he was failing in one way - he could not keep his wife and sister under control, and there was nothing he could do about it other than bow to the inevitable. Since any attempt to change their minds was doomed to failure, and since it did not matter what the two women were doing, he was telling everyone else he fully approved of what they were doing.

This brought snorts of derision from Lucilla. "One minute you're criticizing us for producing a play which criticizes this local overbearing power of males, and in the next breath you're telling any Ulsian who'll listen, it's your idea."

"Seems to me like sound application of sociodynamics," Gaius grinned back. "Go with the current force!"

"Outright hypocrite!"

"Not at all. I said doing plays was a good idea," Gaius remarked. "I said nothing about endorsing this particular one."

"But you do agree that Ulsian males don't give their wives any freedom at all?"

"I agree nothing of the sort," Gaius snorted. "I simply don't know how their society works, and more to the point, I don't care."

"You don't care? You don't think . . ."

"I think it's none of my business," Gaius replied, "and I also think it's none of yours. If they've found a way that suits them for twenty million years, why do you think it ought to change?"

"That's right. Keep them at home, looking after the children," Lucilla taunted, then felt saddened as once again she realized she would never have children.