Authors: Simon Kuper,Stefan Szymanski
Tags: #Psychology, #Football, #Sports & Recreation, #General, #Self-Help, #Social Psychology, #Personal Growth, #Soccer
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country, and though its economy has been catching up fast, it’s still significantly poorer. Consider, for instance, Spain’s record against Italy in these twenty-two years. Over the period Spain’s population, income per head, and international experience were on average about 30 percent inferior to Italy’s. Given that, we would have expected Spain’s goal difference to be about minus two over its four games against Italy. Instead Spain overachieved, notching a win, two ties, and a defeat with a goal difference of zero.
The only other European team in the top ten of overachievers is the Irish Republic. Ireland performed brilliantly between 1980 and 2001
despite having only 4 million inhabitants and, for most of this period, relatively low income per capita. Not until 1994 did an economist from the Morgan Stanley bank coin the phrase “Celtic Tiger.”
However, once again we have the difficulty that many of the teams in our top ten compete almost exclusively against weak opponents.
Syria and Iran played much the same easy schedule as Iraq did. Honduras is a titan of central America. Australia and New Zealand spent much of their time thrashing tiny Pacific islands. South Africa makes the top ten largely because it has so little experience: it rejoined FIFA only in 1992. Furthermore, GDP statistics for poorer countries outside Europe tend to be notoriously unreliable. In general, there is more
“noise” in all the data for countries outside Europe, meaning that we struggle to pick up the influence of the factors we are interested in. It’s like listening to a radio with poor reception: the meaning of the words becomes hard to make out.
It therefore makes more sense to focus on Europe alone. Europe is a more homogeneous place than the world as a whole, meaning that differences, especially in incomes and experience, tend to be smaller. Second, the data are better: Europeans have been collecting them for longer, and they have a relatively long history of transparent record keeping (though there are some very suspicious European statistics). Last, most of the world’s dominant teams are grouped together in Europe, playing against pretty much the same set of opponents. It all adds up to a fairly accurate picture of how well each European team performs.
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F I G U R E 1 4 . 3
Top ten European teams by win percentage, games between European
countries, 1980–2001
Win Goal
Team
Played
Won
Tied
percentage
difference
Germany (united)
97
0.608
0.227
0.722
0.98
West Germany
81
0.580
0.259
0.710
0.98
France
160
0.581
0.238
0.700
0.94
Italy
170
0.565
0.253
0.691
0.78
Czech Republic
70
0.557
0.200
0.657
0.91
Spain
172
0.529
0.256
0.657
0.91
Croatia
69
0.493
0.319
0.652
0.65
England
172
0.483
0.320
0.642
0.87
Netherlands
156
0.494
0.282
0.635
0.92
Russia
75
0.493
0.280
0.633
0.69
Let’s first rank the best European teams on their absolute perfor -
mance, without taking into account their population, experience, or GDP.
Taking only those games played between European teams (that is, eliminating games where at least one team comes from outside Europe), figure 14.3 presents the “absolute” top ten ranked by win percentage.
Crowded at the top, with almost indistinguishable records, are Germany (West and united), France, and Italy. This trio is a clear notch ahead of the Czech Republic, Spain, Croatia, England, Holland, and Russia. None of this is very surprising.
However, things become more interesting after we correct for population, experience, and GDP. Now a new picture emerges. We find that in Europe, home advantage boosts the home team by a little under half a goal per game, compared with two-thirds of a goal in global soccer.
Experience also counts for less in Europe than in the world in general, though it remains the most important of our key variables in winning soccer matches. Having twice the experience of your opponent gives you an advantage of about 30 percent of a goal per game. By contrast, population and GDP count for more in European soccer than they do in global soccer. Having twice the population as the other team is worth a quarter of a goal per game in Europe. Having twice the opponent’s income per capita is worth about one goal every six games. So the factors T O M T H U M B
285
in order of importance are (1) playing at home, (2) experience, (3) population, and (4) GDP.
Figure 14.4, the European efficiency table (the first of its kind, as far as we know), may be the most telling we have, so we have ranked every team for which we have data.
F I G U R E 1 4 . 4
Overachievers: Ranking of European national teams, correcting for population, wealth, and experience, all games between two European opponents, 1980–2001
Average goal
Win difference
Rank Team
Played Won
Tied Percentage
per game
Overachievementa
Georgia
61
0.361
0.164
0.443
-0.11
1.167
Yugoslavia (Serbia
and Montenegro)
42
0.452
0.333
0.619
0.74
1.099
Croatia
69
0.493
0.319
0.652
0.65
0.901
Iceland
113
0.274
0.195
0.372
-0.50
0.837
Irish Republic
144
0.410
0.306
0.563
0.42
0.702
Armenia
42
0.119
0.310
0.274
-1.10
0.629
Czech Republic
70
0.557
0.200
0.657
0.91
0.598
Portugal
151
0.483
0.285
0.626
0.51
0.550
Netherlands
156
0.494
0.282
0.635
0.92
0.486
10
Bulgaria
78
0.449
0.218
0.558
0.37
0.406
11
Denmark
181
0.508
0.188
0.602
0.44
0.400
12
Moldova
51
0.157
0.216
0.265
-1.25
0.359
13
Northern Ireland
128
0.305
0.266
0.438
-0.32
0.334
14
Belarus
47
0.170
0.298
0.319
-0.77
0.284
15
Spain
172
0.529
0.256
0.657
0.91
0.241
16
Sweden
178
0.506
0.236
0.624
0.63
0.238
17
Romania
179
0.441
0.302
0.592
0.44
0.225
18
Norway
162
0.383
0.340
0.552
0.33
0.211
19
West Germany
81
0.580
0.259
0.710
0.98
0.168
20
East Germany
57
0.491
0.193
0.588
0.46
0.096
21
Scotland
140
0.400
0.271
0.536
0.10
0.086
22
Albania
70
0.214
0.171
0.300
-0.83
0.063
23
England
172
0.483
0.320
0.642
0.87
0.051
24
France
160
0.581
0.238
0.700
0.94
0.029
25
Belgium
136
0.375
0.309
0.529
0.23
-0.004
26
Wales
114
0.325
0.211
0.430
-0.33
-0.023
27
Israel
126
0.294
0.254
0.421
-0.25
-0.073
28
Bosnia-Herzegovina 29
0.276
0.207
0.379
-0.48
-0.077
(
continues
)
286
F I G U R E 1 4 . 4 (
continued
)
Average goal
Win difference
Rank Team
Played Won
Tied Percentage
per game
Overachievementa
29
Lithuania
79
0.291
0.165
0.373
-0.68
-0.087
30
Italy
170
0.565
0.253
0.691
0.78
-0.119
31
Slovakia
67
0.388
0.254
0.515
-0.03
-0.136
32
Slovenia
64
0.297
0.281
0.438
-0.30
-0.157
33
Switzerland
149
0.329
0.302
0.480
-0.01
-0.171
34
Greece
169
0.349
0.266
0.482
-0.13
-0.198
35
Latvia
73
0.233
0.151
0.308
-0.64
-0.200
36
FYR Macedonia
51
0.275
0.275
0.412
-0.31
-0.212
37
Cyprus
121
0.174
0.182
0.264
-1.36
-0.217
38
Germany (united)
97
0.608
0.227
0.722
0.98
-0.224
39
Poland
174
0.391
0.282
0.532
0.13
-0.304
40
Hungary
168
0.339
0.292
0.485
-0.04
-0.374
41
Austria
125
0.344
0.248
0.468
-0.16
-0.384
42
Russia
75
0.493
0.280
0.633
0.69
-0.390
43
Azerbaijan
52
0.115
0.154
0.192
-1.75
-0.423
44
Finland
146
0.212
0.281
0.353
-0.73
-0.651
45
Ukraine
57
0.368
0.333
0.535
0.05
-0.748
46
Malta
139
0.072
0.144
0.144
-2.04
-0.807
47
Estonia
91
0.099
0.220
0.209
-1.57
-0.984
48
Turkey
130
0.300
0.223
0.412
-0.66
-1.044
49
Luxembourg
100
0.030
0.090
0.075
-2.27
-1.050
aOverachievement is defined as the actual minus the expected goal difference.
Again, the most important number is in the last column: each country’s “relative goal difference.” It turns out that the top ten of overachievers with the best relative goal difference is monopolized by small nations. The Netherlands with its 15 million inhabitants is the giant of the ten. The Portuguese, Serbs (and Montenegrins), and Czechs all have populations around the 10 million mark, while the Croats are at just 5 million.
This European top ten looks more credible than our global one featuring Honduras et al., because a number of the teams on the European list—chiefly, the Dutch, Czechs, Croats, and Portuguese—have achieved genuine success despite being small. However, one cannot but notice T O M T H U M B
287
that at the very top of our table is a team whose win percentage is a mere 44 percent: Georgia.
Georgia comes at the top largely because its official soccer history is so short. Only on May 27, 1990, did the country play its first official international match. In truth it was a 2–2 tie between the Georgian club Dinamo Tblisi and the Lithuanian club Zalgiris Vilnius. Georgia and Lithuania did not exist as independent states at the time, and so couldn’t very well play an international. But in 1991 both nations gained their independence from the USSR, and soon afterward they agreed to redefine the club friendly as their maiden international. By 2001 Georgia had still played only seventy-one internationals in its history, fewer than a tenth as many as England. Armenia, another surprise entrant in our top ten, had played just fifty-seven.
Of course, the notion that these nations started gaining experience in international soccer only in 1990 is a fiction. Georgia and Armenia, like the “Stans,” had been learning the game for decades in the USSR. Yet for the purposes of our table, we have treated them almost as soccer virgins, and thanks to this statistical quirk they rocket to the top. If we credited these states with the experience of the hundreds of international matches played by the USSR, they would tumble down our rankings.
Nonetheless, Georgia clearly has potential. The country is small (5