The Dictator's Learning Curve: Inside the Global Battle for Democracy (52 page)

1
“We always feel in a state of emergency”:
Reported by the author, summer 2011.

2
“We are not thinking through what we gain”:
Author interview, summer 2011.

3
“the critical distance”:
All quotations with Serbian trainers took place at the CANVAS workshop in the summer of 2011.

4
Zaire’s strongman … is said to have been horrified:
Samuel P. Huntington,
The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century
(Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), p. 288.

5
the Chinese leadership beefed up security:
David Shambaugh,
China’s Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation
(Berkeley: University of California Press, 2009), p. 47.

6
Vladimir Putin and Hu Jintao are said:
Ibid., p. 91.

7
Arab interior ministers … met annually to compare notes:
Gamal Eid (executive director of the Arabic Network for Human Rights Information), interview with author, Cairo, March 2010.

8
Saudi Arabia sent its own troops:
Neil MacFarquhar, “Saudi Arabia Scrambles to Limit Region’s Upheaval,”
New York Times
, May 27, 2011.

9
Take, for example, Girifna:
William J. Dobson, “Learning How to Topple a Tyrant,”
PostPartisan
(blog),
Washington Post
, March 31, 2011,
www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/post/learning-how-to-topple-a-tyrant/2011/03/31/AFw76pBC_blog.html
.

10
the Sudanese movement produced a parody:
Both soap commercials are available online. The Sudanese commercial is at
www.youtube.com/watch?v=lE4FbdhLpU0
; the original Serbian commercial is at
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEZYdGDkkV4&feature=related
.

11
“We had no idea”:
Srdja Popovic, interview with author, Washington, D.C., March 2011.

12
“For
me, it was an eye-opener”:
All quotations from Srdja Popovic are from a July 2011 interview with the author unless otherwise noted.

13
“There is no such thing”:
Srdja Popovic, interview with author, Boston, June 2009.

14
between 1900 and 2006 more than 50 percent:
Erica Chenoweth, “Give Peaceful Resistance a Chance,”
New York Times
, March 10, 2011. For exceptional analysis of the historical efficacy of nonviolent struggle, I recommend Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan,
Why Civil Resistance Works
(New York: Columbia University Press, 2011).

15
“I had never had experience with [the program]”:
All quotations from Robert Helvey are from a July 2010 interview with the author in South Charleston, W.V.

16
His leadership and courage:
Charles A. Krohn,
The Lost Battalion of TET: The Breakout of 2/12th Cavalry at Hue
(Annapolis, Md.: Naval Institute Press, 2008), p. 18.

17
One of the officers:
Ibid., p. 12.

18
His citation describes his bravery:
Helvey’s citation for the Distinguished Service Cross can be found at
www.1stcavmedic.com/DSCs-CAV/Helvey.htm
.

19
It has been published:
Gene Sharp’s
From Dictatorship to Democracy
can be downloaded in twenty-six different languages, including Amharic, Azeri, Tigrigna, and four ethnic languages of Burma, at
www.aeinstein.org
.

20
“Whatever the merits of the violent option”:
Gene Sharp,
From Dictatorship to Democracy
(Boston: Albert Einstein Institution, 1993), p. 4.

21
“Dictators require the assistance”:
Ibid., p. 16.

22
Sharp has lived at this address:
Gene Sharp, interview with author, Boston, February 2010.

23
“The house was in ruins”:
Ibid.

24
Burma’s generals call him:
Gene Sharp, “Burmese Dictatorship Attacks Nonviolent Struggle and Its Advocates, February–July 1995,” unpublished report of the Albert Einstein Institution, p. 2.

25
Hugo Chávez has alleged:
Simon Romero, “Students Emerge as a Leading Force Against Chávez,”
New York Times
, November 10, 2007. See also Sharp’s open-letter response to accusations made by Chávez on June 3, 2007, at
www.aeinstein.org/Chavez.pdf
.

26
“If people do contact us”:
Jamila Raqib, interview with author, Boston, February 2010.

27
Srdja, like other former members of Otpor I met:
For an excellent look at Otpor’s campaign in Serbia and a profile of some of its leaders, see Tina Rosenberg,
Join the Club: How Peer Pressure Can Transform the World
(New York: W. W. Norton, 2011).

28
“how [Popovic] had done it”:
Author interview with Nigerian activist, Boston, June 2009.

29
“It is going to be bloody”:
Popovic, interview, June 2009.

30
issued a call for the turkeys’ release:
Otpor perfomed this particular dilemma action in Kragujevac, Serbia’s fourth-largest city. It is believed that none of the turkeys were harmed.

1
“We call upon each Chinese person”:
This open letter is reproduced and available at
www.hrichina.org/content/4895
.

2
In 1980, members of Poland’s Solidarity movement:
For a gripping and insightful look at the roots of Poland’s Solidarity movement, I recommend Timothy Garten Ash’s
Polish Revolution: Solidarity
(New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 2002).

3
Even before the first Sunday stroll:
Andrew Jacobs, “Chinese Government Responds to Call for Protests,”
New York Times
, February 20, 2011; and Ian Johnson, “Calls for a ‘Jasmine Revolution’ in China Persist,”
New York Times
, February 23, 2011.

4
China’s president, Hu Jintao, called together:
Minnie Chan, “Hu Lecture on Harmony as Protests Roil Mideast,”
South China Morning Post
, February 20, 2011.

5
Almost immediately, renditions of “Mo Li Hua”:
Andrew Jacobs and Jonathan Ansfield, “A Revolution’s Namesake Is Contraband in China,”
New York Times
, May 10, 2011.

6
the Chinese government’s economic performance:
For a comprehensive look at the Chinese economy, I recommend Barry Naughton’s
Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth
(Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2006).

7
it surpassed Japan:
David Barboza, “China Passes Japan as Second-Largest Economy,”
New York Times
, August 15, 2010.

8
the value of IPOs on Chinese stock markets:
Niall Ferguson, “Gloating China, Hidden Problems,”
Daily Beast
, August 14, 2011.

9
At the time, the U.S. government owed:
Fareed Zakaria, “China’s Not Doing Us a Favor,”
Global Public Square
(blog), CNN, August 14, 2011.

10
Mikhail Gorbachev’s plane landed:
My account of the events leading up to the killings in Tiananmen Square relied on Orville Schell’s superb
Mandate of Heaven: The Legacy of Tiananmen Square and the Next Generation of China’s Leaders
(New York: Touchstone, 1994).

11
the party launched a meticulous study:
I am indebted to David Shambaugh’s exhaustive research into the Chinese Communist Party’s response to the collapse of the Soviet Union. For those who would seek more on this crucial turn in the party’s evolution, his book
China’s Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation
(Berkeley: University of California Press, 2008) is required reading. In early 2011, over lunch, Professor Shambaugh also kindly shared his views on more recent trends within the party.

12
For an autocratic regime set on maintaining:
For a look at China’s adoption of some deliberative elements of governance, see John L. Thornton, “Long Time Coming,”
Foreign Affairs
87, no. 1 (January/February 2008).

13
“We don’t waste our time”:
Author interview with party adviser, Beijing, February 2011.

14
“People are more conservative”:
Author interview with Chinese academic, Beijing, February 2011.

15
“Efforts to find a Chinese Gorbachev”:
Henry Kissinger,
On China
(New York: Penguin Press, 2011), p. 457.

16
The
People’s Daily
quoted him:
Schell,
Mandate of Heaven
, p. 415.

17
But this time it appeared to be different:
Paul Mooney, “Silence of the Dissidents,”
South China Morning Post
, July 4, 2011.

18
“And, third, it is cultural”:
Author interview with Chinese academic, Beijing, February 2011.

19
No Chinese leader today:
For expertise on Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, and Chinese elite politics, I highly recommend the work of Professor Roderick MacFarquhar. Although his scholarship on China’s Cultural Revolution is unsurpassed, a more general reader may wish to begin with his edited volume
The Politics of China: The Eras of Mao and Deng
(Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1997).

20
“We’ve been surprised”:
Author interview with Chinese Middle East expert, Beijing, February 2011.

21
Yu is not some dissident:
For an excellent profile of Yu Keping’s ideas, I recommend Mark Leonard’s recent history of contemporary Chinese thinkers,
What Does China Think?
(New York: Public Affairs, 2008).

22
“There is an enormous divide”:
Yu Keping, interview with author, Beijing, February 2011.

23
“Well, to me, it very obviously”:
Lai Hairong, interview with author, Beijing, February 2011.

24
The concept, known by the shorthand
ti-yong: For a fuller explanation of this formulation and its adherents, I recommend Jonathan Spence,
The Search for Modern China
(New York: Norton, 1990).

25
“This was a big decision”:
Lu Mai, interview with author, Beijing, February 2011.

26
Harvard faculty teach Chinese officials:
Anthony Saich, telephone interview with author, October 2011.

27
Nearly 20 percent of the government’s ministers:
Edward S. Steinfeld,
“China’s Other Revolution,”
Boston Review
, July/August 2011.

28
More than half of the Central Committee:
Shambaugh,
China’s Communist Party
, p. 36.

29
One ten-year survey found:
I am indebted to Edward Cunningham for drawing my attention to this survey conducted by Anthony Saich and Edward Cunningham, “Satisfaction with Government Performance: Public Opinion in Rural and Urban China,” unpublished manuscript. See also Anthony Saich, “Citizens’ Perception on Governance in Rural and Urban China,”
Journal of Chinese Political Science
12, no. 1 (Spring 2007).

30
Here the party’s Organization Department:
These figures come from Shambaugh’s
China’s Communist Party
. For the single best look at the party’s Organization Department, I recommend Richard McGregor’s
Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers
(New York: HarperCollins, 2010).

31
“help the rulers cheat”:
Pan Wei, interview with author, Beijing, February 2011.

32
George Soros, who has spent a large portion:
Tamsin McMahon, “Billionaire Soros Wins CIC Globalist of the Year Award,”
National Post
, November 16, 2010.

33
the top body charged with holding:
Shambaugh,
China’s Communist Party
, p. 133.

34
the odds of a corrupt official:
I am indebted to Minxin Pei for emphasizing the limits of many of the party’s reforms to me while we were colleagues at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. This particular calculation comes from Minxin Pei, “Corruption Threatens China’s Future,” Carnegie Endowment Policy Brief, no. 55, October 2007.

35
“Our local government is no better”:
Author interview with Chinese farmer, Beijing, February 2011.

36
more than ten million petitions:
Minxin Pei,
China’s Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy
(Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2006), p. 202.

37
The cause is relatively hopeless:
Ibid.

38
The Anyuanding Security Technology Service reportedly:
Xu Kai and Li Weiao, “The Machinery of Stability Preservation,”
Caijing
, June 6, 2011. An English translation of this article is available from the
Dui Hua Human Rights Journal
,
www.duihuahrjournal.org/2011/06/translation-machinery-of-stability.html
.

39
In 1993, the Ministry of Public Security reported:
Leonard,
What Does China Think?
, p. 72.

40
the number of protests had more than doubled:
Michael Forsyth, “180,000 Protests in 2010,”
Bloomberg News
, March 6, 2011.

41
China spent more on its internal security:
Ibid.

42
the published budget for police and domestic surveillance:
Chris Buckley, “China Internal Security Spending Jumps Past Army Budget,” Reuters, March 5, 2011.

43
the provincial government in Xinjiang:
Edward Wong, “China Nearly Doubles Security Budget for Western Region,”
New York Times
, January 13, 2010.

44
In Liaoning, 15 percent:
Andrew Jacobs and Jonathan Ansfield, “Well-Oiled Security Apparatus in China Stifles Calls for Change,”
New York Times
, February 28, 2011.

45
Thousands of stability maintenance offices:
Ibid.

46
“You don’t win points”:
Author interview with Western NGO expert, Beijing, February 2011.

47
The last time the regime acted as swiftly:
I was living in China in 1999 when the brutal crackdown against the Falun Gong was launched. In 2011, many Chinese I met were aware of the regime’s arrests of lawyers and activists. In 1999, however, I had no idea that the campaign had begun until I read about it outside China.

48
The government recently proposed rewriting:
Michael Wines, “More Chinese Dissidents Appear to Disappear,”
New York Times
, September 2, 2011.

49
“The ideology and legitimacy”:
Pu Zhiqiang, interview with author, Beijing, February 2011.

50
“In China, it is not about yes or no”:
Lai, interview.

51
an unprecedented number of Chinese citizens:
Keith B. Richburg, “China Sees Surge of Independent Candidates,”
Washington Post
, September 9, 2011.

52
a misstep by a local official:
To my knowledge, Hugo Restall first made this point in his article “The Urumqi Effect,”
Asian Wall Street Journal
, July 10, 2009.

53
“Even though the people we are watching”:
This post is available at the China Elections and Governance blog at chinaelectionsblog.net/?p=12468.

54
“If they let that many people go”:
Author interview with party member, Beijing, February 2011.