When Danielson finished, Ellison Gantt spoke
from his seat in the swivel chair at the desk.
“This is a very strange situation, but let me
say for the information of my colleagues that Dr. Danielson seems
to have a good command of the basics of seismology in general and
the nature of the Large Seismic Array in particular. I’d like a
chance to study the data she’s presented in more detail, but at
first sight I have to concur that the signal’s a genuine one. I’ve
never seen one like it. It’s certainly not the result of normal
seismological activity.”
Danielson knew Gantt by reputation. She was
pleased by his gesture of support.
Harvey Leems spoke up from his seat near the
door. “Do you have other independent evidence of the existence of
this phenomenon—something other than this seismological record,
that is?”
“Yes, let me speak to that,” replied Isaacs.
“The seismic data is crucial because it told us that something
systematic was occurring and led us to look for corroborative
evidence. That’s the other half of the story.”
He gave a quick smile and nodded at
Danielson. As he rose, she took his chair that was more convenient
than the sofa. The remnant state of intense nervous involvement
with her own presentation persisted. Several minutes passed before
she could concentrate adequately on Isaacs’ remarks. Isaacs
outlined the associated sonar data and the behavior it portrayed.
Whereas the seismic signal was lost in the mantle, the sonar signal
proceeded along the extrapolated path to the ocean surface,
disappeared for about forty seconds and then retraced its path to
the ocean bottom where the seismic signal was picked up once
more.
“On the basis of such data,” Isaacs
continued, “about three weeks ago a Navy destroyer was sent to
investigate a site of the predicted surfacings. At its first
station it recorded and relayed a signal typical of the one I just
described. It then took up position near a second predicted point
of surfacing.”
Isaacs paused and looked around at his
audience. “Our data is incomplete, but at approximately the
predicted time of surfacing, the ship exploded, capsized and sank.
Two hundred thirty-six of the crew were lost.”
Most of the men to whom he spoke stared down
at their hands or off to various spots in the room. Only Leems and
Runyan kept their eyes on Isaacs.
“There’s some evidence that the turbines
exploded. There’s no proof that the sinking of the ship was related
to its mission, but the circumstantial evidence and other events
suggest to me that that possibility must be strongly
considered.
“We have seen in hindsight that a related
event probably occurred to the Soviet aircraft carrier Novorossiisk
last April. It was in the Mediterranean on the trajectory Dr.
Danielson described and at the right time, as nearly as we can
tell. Something punctured a small hole through it vertically a few
millimeters to a centimeter across and triggered extensive fire
damage. There was an associated sonar signal. We suggested a
meteorite, but the Soviets rejected the idea; we’re not sure why.
In any case, that event began an escalating and very dangerous
conflict with the Soviets. We needn’t go into that here, but to say
that the Soviets mistakenly blamed us for the damage to the
carrier. Besides direct physical damage, ignorance of the true
nature of this phenomenon threatens us with other indirectly
related, but very real perils.”
Isaacs paused and scanned around the
group.
“It’s imperative that we understand this
phenomenon for its intrinsic menace, and to contain this related
confrontation with the Soviets.”
He looked at them again, satisfied he had
made the point.
“To summarize the picture we currently have,
then,” said Isaacs, “some influence moves along a line fixed in
space. It travels through the Earth or the ocean where its passage
can be detected with seismographs or sonar, respectively. It seems
to reverse just above the Earth’s surface and then return on a
parallel path. There is evidence that this influence is responsible
for puncturing a hole several millimeters across through solid
steel. And there is every reason to think that it is something that
is an immediate threat to life and property and, indirectly, to our
political stability.”
Leems had listened carefully to this extended
reply to his first question and raised another.
“If this phenomenon is as dangerous as you
indicate, why haven’t there been widespread reports of damage? If
it really surfaces regularly, that’s about eighteen times a day
somewhere on Earth.”
“I agree that’s a point of interest,” replied
Isaacs, “and Dr. Danielson has had another important insight in
that regard, which she just told me about this morning. We think
the answer is that, for the most part, the damage is of a curiously
limited nature, and the locus on the Earth’s surface passes through
relatively sparsely occupied territory. You’ve noticed, I suppose,
that we are very nearly on the track here in La Jolla. From San
Diego the path stretches across the southwest United States, where
there are few people, although it does pass through Dallas/Fort
Worth. The southeast United States is also not too densely
populated. The nearest big cities to the path are Macon, Georgia
and Charleston, South Carolina, both somewhat to the north. From
there the path goes across the Atlantic, intersecting Africa south
of Casablanca then cutting across North Africa and into the
Mediterranean. It passes through the Middle East, but again misses
the big cities, going south of Haifa and Esfahan. From there it
goes across Afghanistan and Pakistan and through the Himalayas. The
path cuts through the heart of China, but misses major population
centers. If there were incidents in the rural areas there, as for
many of the other affected countries, we might very well hear
nothing of it. The path intersects Nagasaki and then proceeds
across the Pacific. The story is very much the same for the locus
in the southern hemisphere. Lots of ocean, relatively little
population density.
“So I suspect most events go unobserved, and
that many that are observed go unreported. The probability of a
surfacing twice in the same place is small. To any single witness
it would be an isolated event with little meaning.
“What Dr. Danielson has pointed out is that
the seismic signal should come up within a region of high
population density occasionally, increasing the chances of
observing some associated phenomena. She predicts that the
trajectory of the seismic wave will intersect a position within the
city of Nagasaki this coming Thursday, July 8, Japanese time. On
July 26 a similar event should take place in Dallas.”
“Well, you clearly want to put some observers
at those sites,” said Leems, coldly. “Aren’t you jumping the gun,
talking to us now without those data?”
Isaacs stared at Leems for a long moment,
then replied in an equally cool tone. “As I said, the predictions
were made after this trip was scheduled. I’m hoping the events that
have already transpired will give you some clue to tell us what to
look for.”
“Well, what about this business of sidereal
time then; what do you make of that?” asked Gantt, attempting to
head off Leems’ negativism.
“That’s one of the crucial issues we would
like to raise with this group,” Isaacs replied to him. “The timing
seems to be so special that it must be an important clue, but we
haven’t been able to utilize it. Perhaps we could get some comment
now from you.” He swung his hand in invitation around the room.
“Well, Alex—what the hell?” Gantt turned to
address Runyan on the sofa.
Runyan scratched his thick beard. “I’m
working on it,” he replied in a testy tone overlaid with humor,
picking up the cue from Gantt. There was a general chuckle. “The
sidereal time would normally indicate an extraterrestrial source.
That seems outlandish in this context, but I guess we should kick
it around. I deduce we’re under attack by an extraterrestrial army
stationed on Alpha Cancri aiming tachyonic Earthquake beams at us.”
The chuckles turned to guffaws. Isaacs smiled wryly, recalling his
own fatigued fantasy.
Noldt asked, “How about a Jupiter effect? Is
there an alignment of planets that would cause a tidal or some
other effect that would be associated with a fixed direction in the
sky?”
“Jupiter effect?” Isaacs queried and Gantt
turned to answer him.
“The Jupiter effect is supposed to be a
terrestrial upheaval associated with an alignment of the great
planets every two hundred years. One version has it that this
alignment causes solar storms that eject particles affecting the
polar atmosphere. Associated changes in air pressure are supposed
to trigger Earthquakes.”
“I don’t believe any of that,” Gantt went on,
“and have even more difficulty seeing how it could enter here. The
regular tides should swamp any such effect. I suppose this might be
a resonance of some kind, but it would have to be completely
unprecedented.”
“Where’s Jupiter now?” asked Runyan. “Would
you have noticed a change due to its motion over the time base you
have?”
Isaacs deferred to Danielson. “Jupiter is
about forty degrees away from the direction we’re talking about,”
Danielson replied. “That may not mean anything if a resonance is
involved. A preferred direction that’s a mean of the Moon and the
Sun and Jupiter might be involved. Over the last three months, the
Earth has moved far enough to rule out a preferred direction with
respect to the Sun, but Jupiter moves more slowly. I’m not sure we
could rule that out.”
“Jupiter would have moved through two or
three degrees,” Runyan stated, having done a quick mental
calculation.
“That’s a shift of over a hundred miles along
the Earth’s surface,” Danielson replied. “If that’s the case, we
can just about eliminate the possibility of alignment of the
trajectory we see with the position of Jupiter.”
Runyan continued thinking out loud. “The
twenty-three degree angle of the Earth’s equator with respect to
the ecliptic is purely random—there’s no other solar system or
astronomical connection—ruling out the accidental location of
Polaris. A fixed angle of thirty-three degrees with respect to the
Earth’s equator means even less. This thing has to be basically
terrestrial. And yet sidereal. I’ll put it back to Ellison. What
the hell?”
“How do you know the Russians aren’t behind
this somehow?” Leems asked. “It seems like some kind of beam
technology could be involved, and they invented the techniques. A
satellite could be rigged to fire at a precise point in orbit so
that it would look as if it always fired from the same position
with respect to the stars. As Alex just said, terrestrial, but
sidereal. They might do such a thing just to throw us off the mark.
I point out that the eighty minute period you report is very close
to the time for a satellite to orbit the Earth.”
“That’s short, though, Harvey,” said Runyan.
“A satellite takes closer to ninety minutes.”
“Use an array of satellites then.” He turned
to Isaacs. “You have checked the location of Russian satellites,
haven’t you?”
“No, that hadn’t occurred to me—”
“I’m sure you’ll remedy that oversight at the
first opportunity,” Leems interrupted.
Isaacs gritted his teeth and Danielson came
to his defense.
“But that doesn’t make any sense,” she said.
“Why would they use any such weapon on their own ship? And wouldn’t
we know if they had some technique for generating seismic tremors
deep inside the Earth?”
“I don’t suppose we know everything the
Russians are up to,” said Leems with a patronizing tone. “Perhaps
they shot their own ship to embroil us in the very scandal you
alluded to.”
Danielson leaned back in her chair, her face
flushed. Isaacs shook his head slowly.
Quiet fell on the group momentarily, then
Fletcher spoke. “Alex, you were joking a while ago, but it got me
thinking.” He looked around at his colleagues. “Apparently, none of
us can propose a natural explanation to account for the evidence
presented: the seismic signals, the sonar signals, the suggestion
that something is boring small holes through the Earth itself. I
can’t buy Harvey’s suggestion that it is some Russian plot. There
are too many weird aspects. I think we must seriously consider
another possibility. Suppose that we aren’t dealing with either a
natural or a man-made phenomenon?” A deep silence filled the room.
“Suppose there is a, well, an external intelligence behind
this?”
The silence continued as Fletcher’s words
probed a queasy, sensitive spot in each member of Jason. Trained as
scientists, they sought to explain the world around them with the
simplest rational extension of previous knowledge, but each knew
their knowledge had bounds, limits. Each knew the rules of the game
could be changed and their carefully honed intuition would be of
little use. Each looked for and craved a simple solution, but each
knew there was a chance, however small, that Fletcher could be
right. They could be facing a situation so fundamentally different
than anything they had encountered previously that their training
and experience could be meaningless.
“Are you suggesting that there’s an
extraterrestrial intent behind these occurrences?” asked Phillips.
His tone was incredulous. There were mutterings of dissatisfaction
around the room.
“None of us here are UFO fanatics,” pressed
Fletcher, “least of all me. But we all know you can’t prove a
negative; we can’t prove other intelligent civilizations don’t
exist. We know there are a few standard cliches concerning how such
civilizations are to be discovered, radio emissions and all that.
But I convinced myself long ago that guessing at the character of
an extraterrestrial civilization by extrapolating the human
condition is an exercise in futility. We have no basis for
estimating the sociological and cultural evolution of an alien
society even if we all obey the same physics.