The Nightmare Scenario (19 page)

The president broke out in one of his vote-winning heart-warming smiles and opened the conference: “Dr. Hughes. You’ve stirred up quite the ruckus at the UN.”

“So I’ve been told, Mr. President.”

“I understand Major Wiley here doesn’t fully agree with your analysis of the situation.”

Well beyond the angle of the camera and Aeolus’s view, Hank nodded.

“That is most unfortunate, Mr. President.”

“The purpose of this meeting is for me to hear your case and gain a better understanding of what’s going on. As you know, my predecessor had a little hiccup involving quarantines. I would very much like to avoid a similar situation. I need to understand this properly. So please, Dr. Hughes, explain your view to me in layman terms. They tell me we’re talking about some form of killer flu.”

“You are rightly informed Mr. President. It’s a new strain of influenza of subtype H1N1, designated A/Singapore/4/2015/(H1N1).”

“H1N1? Like the swine flu?”

“Yes and no. There are many influenza variants classified as H1N1. Beyond the swine flu, there are several bird flu variants, as well as strains in humans, most notably those in 1918 and 1977. The regular seasonal flu is benign, although even that causes, on average, 41,400 deaths in the United States alone every year. The fatalities from this type of flu are, however, primarily among elderly people, infants or people who have predisposing factors, especially in the form of a lung or heart disease.”

“This influenza strain,” Aeolus continued, “is a different thing altogether.

“Every now and then we get an influenza that’s very different from the ordinary seasonal infection. It comes from animals, most often birds, and it is something our immune system is ill prepared for. This is what happened in 1918 when a new strain of flu killed, we estimate, three percent of the earth’s population over eighteen months. Keep in mind that this was in a time before air travel.”

Aeolus paused, obviously hoping to let the message sink in. Hank looked at the president. He still did not look convinced. Good.

“The Spanish flu had a mortality rate of fifteen to twenty percent. This one is worse, Mr. President. We could be talking one to two billion deaths, globally.”

The president struck out with his arms, and said, while looking around the table, with a querying look on his face “This sounds awfully similar to something we’ve heard before. During my first term, your organization said the same thing about the swine flu. You would have had the world’s leaders impose all kinds of draconian measures. Your push for mass vaccinations turned out to do more harm than good.”

“Yes, Mr. President, I have to admit we called that one a bit early. Not that it really matters, but I want you to know I was against that policy. That flu did not have the characteristics of a global killer. I will be the first to admit that.”

“And why should I think you’re not just crying wolf again?”

Aeolus straightened his back, took a deep breath and launched into the continuation of his argument.

“Pandemic influenza of this kind has been common throughout history. The first record we have of this type of pandemic is from 1580. It was not always labeled as influenza, due to the limited diagnostic abilities during those times. Yet, today we believe that many of the outbreaks referred to as plague were actually influenzas. Since then, Man has been faced with a pandemic every thirty or so years. That was up until the Spanish flu. Since then we’ve had two pandemics, the Asian flu in 1957-58 and the Hong Kong flu in 1968-69, both of which have been benign compared to the real thing. In short, the type of flu we’re talking about is deadly, very much so. We’ve known for a long time that it was coming, and now it’s here.”

Aeolus went on to explain the basic biology of the disease, how the most common cause of death was viral pneumonitis or an overreaction by the immune system, how there are no effective medicines against viruses, and how the only real protection lies in a vaccine.

“And why can’t we make a vaccine against this influenza?” asked the president. “Every year there’s a new flu vaccine that the pharmaceutical industry tries to peddle us.”

“That’s correct, Mr. President. We’ve been successful in developing yearly vaccines against the common seasonal flu, where each year’s version has many similarities to the variant of the preceding year. For this strain, this does not apply. We don’t even know where to start. Producing a vaccine would take, if you want my best guess, at least six months.”

“What if we were to put some serious resources behind it?”

“Mr. President, the resources are not the problem. There is no way to parallelize the process. As they say, ‘it takes nine months to bear a child, no matter how many women you assign to the job.’”

“And why don’t we just issue a couple of million face masks? This thing is airborne you tell me, no?”

Hank smiled. He knew the answer to this, and it was exactly this stubborn sort of questioning of Aeolus’ knowledge that could lead to Aeolus’s famous explosions. This would be a bad time for Aeolus to have a fit. But, somehow, the man managed to keep his composure and calmly answered, “Actually, the face masks don’t help; at least not outside the controlled environment of a hospital. When used by the general population, they do more harm than good. People walk around all day with the masks collecting viruses on the outside surface. Then when they take it off, they touch a high concentration of virus particles. Then they touch their face at some point, and it’s game over.

“It’s like with this myth of washing your hands all the time. Soap does not kill viruses. Unless you wash your hands with alcohol, it has no effect. Soap dispensers in public toilets are filled with various infections and are actually a major contributor to the spread of the contagion.”

The president stared up at the ceiling in silence, probably trying to find some other pragmatic solution that would cut the Gordian knot and make this problem go away.

Aeolus did not give the president much time for reflection.

“Three things determine the severity of any pandemic. The first is mortality rate, which we currently estimate around twenty to twenty-five percent. The second is rate of spread. This one if much more virulent and hence spreads faster than the regular influenza and even the regular one spreads very fast. Third is the share of asymptomatic carriers, and this, Mr. President, is what really worries me. We have no ability to gauge this yet, but it is probably the most important. Asymptomatic carriers are people who are infected and infect others, but show no symptoms. It is impossible to screen them out at, for instance, airports, and this is why we need a full, water-tight quarantine.”

“And this thing is on a rampage in Indonesia right now?”

“Not exactly, Mr. President. We have a real outbreak in the Maluku Islands, but the Indonesian military has, or at least so I’ve been told, enforced a successful quarantine.”

“If that’s true,” the president said, “and excuse me if there’s something I’m missing here, if it is quarantined, won’t that mean that it will run its course, and, regrettable as it may be, a lot of people will die, and that will be it?”

“If we were sure it was contained, that would indeed be what would happen, Mr. President. But there is one complication to consider. Apart from spreading among humans, the disease is also carried by, we believe, bats. Our best guess at the moment is that it’s carried by a
species of bat native to the eastern part of Indonesia. We have already had one case outside the current quarantine zone, which, fortunately, we managed to contain. We might not be so lucky next time.”

“And what is it you’d have me do?”

“Mr. President, we have to quarantine the eastern parts of Indonesia, and the United States is the only nation that can muster both the political will and the military resources to do so. If it reaches Jakarta, there will be no stopping it. We won’t be able to contain it. If you say yes, Mr. President, I can assure you a Security Council resolution supporting that action in a matter of hours.”

“Secretary Rutherford?” said the president, turning to his Secretary of State.

“I’d say it’s politically impossible. The Indonesians might perceive it as an act of war – Security Council resolution or not. The Arab world will disapprove strongly and vocally. Unless a case can be made, and I don’t believe it has been, that this represents a clear and present danger to the national security of the United States, I must advise strongly against it.”

“Major Wiley?”

“Mr. President, I don’t agree with Mr. Hughes. His medical claims are not uncontested. The idea that this influenza spreads through bats is a theory, nothing more. I think it’s more likely that it spreads via birds. Birds infecting humans is a rare thing and given that it’s happened three times in a month already, the likelihood of it happening again is low.”

“Mr. President,” interrupted Aeolus, the color of his face turning slightly pink, “past outcomes have no
effect on future probabilities. The roulette ball doesn’t know whether it landed on black or red the last spin. Chance has no memory.”

“You must also consider,” continued Hank, letting Aeolus’s interruption go unnoticed, “that there could be panic. Panic in Indonesia, but also panic here at home. It will be all over the media. Imagine people running for their lives as soon as someone sneezes next to them. There would be chaos, and at this stage I’d argue that the dangers of panic, at least to our nation, are greater than the danger of the virus reaching us. Furthermore, I believe Dr. Hughes significantly overstates the dangers of this infection, as the mortality rates are exaggerated by the primitive conditions and lack of immunities in the current outbreak areas. It’s the flu, for Christ’s sake.”

“Lastly,” said Hank, pulling his trump card, “we have to consider seasonality. Normal influenza is not an ever-present disease. It follows the seasons. It requires dry and cold weather to flourish. That’s why we have it from November to May, our winter, and in the southern hemisphere they have it during their winter. The earliest it can hit us here is about Christmas and then we’ll be ready for it.”

He took a step back and smiled triumphantly at Aeolus. Eat that you son-of-a-bitch.

Aeolus’s cheeks shifted from a pink to darker reddish color. This was good. This was the sign of an upcoming loss of temper.

But Aeolus still somehow managed to keep his calm. He locked his gaze with Hank, while directing his words toward the president.

“If Mr. Wiley had checked the current temperature and humidity in Tireme, he would know that what he just said is not true for this strain. If it was a fact, as for a
normal
influenza, no one seems to have told the virus.”

Hank swallowed, his mouth dry. This was not the response he’d hoped for. Aeolus was sure to be right. He wouldn’t miss a thing like that. Why the CDC staff had, though, was not yet clear to Hank. It would be once the meeting was over and he called them in to understand exactly whose analysis had left him this exposed.

“Finally, Mr. President, there is nothing ‘normal’ about this influenza. Assuming so would be a grave mistake.”

The minute of silence that passed showed that Aeolus’s briefing was, finally, over.

“Thank you, Dr. Hughes,” said the president. “That was a very informative session. I will definitely take this into account as we consider our course of action.”

He motioned to Hank to disconnect the call. Aeolus started protesting, apparently wanting to be part of the continuation of the debate, but Hank cut him off mid-sentence. The order had, after all, been given.

“Richard?” said the president, turning to the man on his right.

Richard Lane was the First Lieutenant of the Air Force, working as administrative support in the Situation Room. His job was to ensure that everything ran smoothly, that everyone who needed to be connected was, that the briefings were concise and that the president had everything he needed. His job was in essence that of an assistant and had traditionally been filled by an Air Force officer. Given the nature of the discussions in the Situation Room, the presence of civilians was shunned.

Richard had the president’s ear. The president often turned to him for a common-sense opinion after hearing all the experts; an opinion that was not necessarily based on subject matter expertise, but which was in line with what the actual voters would think.

Richard had earned this status when, during the debate on military intervention in Libya in 2011, the president had, on a whim, asked him for his opinion. In an unsteady voice, Richard had suggested that there would be popular support for enforcing a no-fly zone, but not for troops on the ground, and that they could use air superiority to take out Gaddafi. Surely, argued Richard, the opposition would gain control over the country once Gaddafiwas gone. The president had arrived at the same conclusion and since then occasionally come to seek Richard’s advice.

“Mr. President,” Richard began. “As you know, I don’t have any real knowledge about the topic, nor do I understand the nuances of the medical debate, but I
have two thoughts. The first is that every time we discuss any course of action that ‘might upset the Muslim community,’ we underestimate its impact. Every time, the reaction from the Muslims has been more severe than we expected.