The Nightmare Scenario (26 page)

“Also, if we don’t enforce a quarantine, the people you are trying to save by letting them out will be infected later anyway as the influenza catches up with them during its race around the world. There is simply no course of action by which they are saved. The best outcome for Indonesia is for the rest of world to stay healthy and keep functioning so that we can provide the help they require.”

He paused to let that sink in.

“I want to share one last observation before I leave you to your deliberations. A common mistake among laymen of epidemiology is the inability to take into account the lag of information. As I stated earlier, it’s fully possible that someone won’t show symptoms until six days after infection. This means that once we observe an infected patient, he’s already passed it on to others. At the point in time the observation is made, it is already too late to do anything about it.

“This is why we need to quarantine an area beyond where infections have been detected. We know now that the infection has been present in Jakarta, albeit in a small population, for the last five days. We have no way of knowing where else it might have traveled during this time. For all we know, someone in this room could be infected and is spreading the virus in this hall as we speak.

Aeolus paused for dramatic effect, hoping this would instill enough fear in the few remaining doubters to secure the vote.

“Indonesia is not enough. To catch this one, we need to cast a wider net. Hence, the second part of the motion.

“Please keep in mind that this wider quarantine doesn’t need to stay in effect for very long. If no infection has been found in ten days, we can safely lift the quarantine of that country without any risk.

“Consider this vote carefully, for it is a matter requiring serious thought. And before you make your decision, heed these words: No matter what we do, people will die, and there’s no way, with some exceptions created by geography, a single nation can tackle this problem. The only way to meet the challenge is with a globally coordinated response. That is exactly the type of action this institution was created to take.

Aeolus finished, and restacked his papers – which he hadn’t given a single glance during the entire speech – and prepared to answer questions.

The president opened the floor for questions and three ambassadors announced interest.

“The chair recognizes the Distinguished Representative from the United Kingdom.”

“Dr. Hughes, I was hoping you could shed some light on one fact that does, to me, seem to contradict the conclusions you have put forward here today. At the time of the SARS outbreak, your office made similar statements about its potential to cause harm. Yet we managed to contain it without quarantining whole regions of the globe. What makes this situation so different?”

“Distinguished Representative from United Kingdom, that is a perfectly valid question and my answer will be that there are three reasons for this.

“Firstly, although SARS was a potent virus, it
was
less contagious than the Maluku Flu. Several carriers moved around in the general population in Toronto without spreading the infection. Transmission required what we call ‘close contact.’.

“Secondly, although no large regional quarantines were into effect, the measures put in place by individual countries were quite austere. In Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Beijing and Canada, more than ten thousand people were put in quarantine, not only the infected, but also everyone who’d been in close contact with them.

“Lastly, and I apologize to the dedicated men and women I might offend by saying so, we were lucky. It would not have taken much for the situation to turn out radically different. If it had hit Africa, for instance, it would have been game over.”

“Distinguished Representative from the United Kingdom, do you consider your question adequately answered?”

“Yes, Mr. President.”

“The chair recognizes the Distinguished Representative from South Africa.”

“Dr. Hughes. Given what you’ve said about the spread and the fact that it could be in this hall already, what makes you certain that the measures you’re proposing will achieve the desired effect?”

“Distinguished Representative from South Africa, I am by no means certain. If it were up to me, we’d stop all international travel this instant. That would be the most effective means of protecting the world’s population. That said, there are also other considerations and the political reality is that this assembly won’t accept such action. Because of this we’re proposing what we consider a reasonable response, balancing the concerns of the medical community against the other interests that need to be taken into account.”

“Distinguished Representative from South Africa, do you consider your question adequately answered?”

“Yes, Mr. President.”

“The chair recognizes the Distinguished Representative from Malaysia.”

“Mr. Hughes, are you aware that this morning, the Singaporean Navy sunk two fishing vessels passing through the Malacca Strait on their way to Malaysia? The attack took place on Malaysian territory. We view this as a breach of our national sovereignty and will
consider appropriate military response. As this seems to me a preemptive enforcement of the naval blockade you are now arguing for, is this something you condone, and if so, is this something that you’ve already discussed with the Singaporean government?”

“Distinguished Representative from Malaysia, questions about foreign relations are outside my area of competence. These actions are not mine to condone or disapprove of. I do, however, want to make clear that I’ve had no discussion with the Singaporean government or any other Singaporean institution about the topic.”

“Are there any more questions to Director-General Hughes before we move on with the proceedings?”

No one responded.

“Dr. Hughes, the chair thanks you for your contribution. You are now excused as this chamber moves on to a closed session of deliberations.”

AUGUST 8
^TH
, 9 PM, OUTSIDE THE OVAL OFFICE, THE WHITE HOUSE, WASHINGTON D.C.

A
eolus paced back and forth in the Oval Office anteroom, watched by the most powerful assistant in the world, listening as Stan briefed him on the outcome of the plenary. They had, unsurprisingly, not gotten all they’d asked for. Despite the violent objections of the Indonesian and Malaysian ambassadors, Indonesia had been placed under strict isolation, to be enforced by a coalition of troops under UN authority provided by countries in the proximity, mainly Singapore and China. The second part of the motion, however, had been rejected. Instead of a binding quarantine, the target nations had been “encouraged” to enforce a self-quarantine to the extent they deemed appropriate. Furthermore, a non-binding statement was issued, warning all nations about the dangers of receiving
passengers from Southeast Asia, coupled with a recommendation that, if doing so, “proper medical precautions” should be taken.

What this in reality meant, according to Stan, was that approximately half of Europe, along with China, Russia and India, would disallow planes from Southeast Asia. It was better than nothing, but not enough. It was too little, too late.

As cabinet secretaries and advisors gathered outside the office, congregating in small groups, conversing through murmured whispers, Hank came up to Aeolus from behind, slapped a hand on his shoulder and whispered through gritted teeth: “Just so you know, you foul playing treacherous weasel, that trick you pulled with the DIA won’t work again. This Finegold fellow has been disciplined and the proper chain of command restored.”

Aeolus turned to Hank with an innocent smile. “Hank, dear friend, I don’t have the faintest idea what you’re talking about.”

As they were beckoned into the Oval Office, Aeolus marveled at the sense of reverence the room instilled. He wasn’t easily impressed or subjugated by authority, but even he felt intimidated by the setting.

The president stood upright behind the Resolute desk, built from the oak timbers of the British Arctic Exploration ship of the same name. Its intricate carvings were of the finest craftsmanship, none more so than the eagle in the center, holding an olive branch in its right talon, and a set of arrows in its left.

In front of the desk was the deep blue, round carpet, with the presidential seal, showing the same eagle
facing the thirteen olive branches, representing the original states. It was a common misunderstanding that the eagle faced the branches in times of peace and the arrows in times of war. Aeolus knew better. The design of the seal had been changed after the Second World War. Since then the eagle always faced the arrows.

The whole room seemed comprised for one purpose – to instill awe in visitors and elevate the stature of the president. And it worked.

The president began. “Good job with the resolution, Dr. Hughes. We would’ve been in a bit of a bind if the UN hadn’t, in practice, retroactively sanctioned our rather heavy-handed intervention to get our Indonesian friends to shut down the airport.”

“Thank you, Mr. President. I was very pleased with that outcome as well.”

“I understand you have further information that wasn’t covered in the UN briefing?”

“Yes, Mr. President”

“Meaning it’s worse than you said?”

“As a doctor, I am trained not to speculate on matters without scientific support. As Director-General of the WHO, however, I feel I must share my views on what’s going to happen, even though there’s no conclusive proof. I have considerable experience in this area and what I’m about to tell you is based on intuition honed through years of practicing my craft.

“Mr. President. The quarantine will not hold. We’re too late. Within a month this disease, will be all over Eurasia and in Africa. The only landmasses we can protect are those that are geographically isolated.
And the only way we can be sure to save them is if we act now. In my opinion, these are Japan, New Zealand, the odd isolated island nations such as Malta or those in the Pacific, and most importantly, the American continents and the Caribbean islands.

“I don’t believe the infection’s spread to the United States yet, but it will. Soon. I urge you, Mr. President, for the sake of your people, to enforce a strict quarantine against Europe, Asia, Africa and Australia. If you do it now, we can save America. Of that I am absolutely convinced.”

“Well, Dr. Hughes, that’s not exactly a small request. Opinions?” The president turned to his advisors.

The Chief of Staff spoke first. “Even if we wanted to do it and even if we could build popular support for it, it’d simply be impossible. The economic consequences alone would be devastating. Our economy would come to a halt. It’d be worse than the Depression.”

Aeolus suppressed his impulse to ask the Chief of Staff as to which he preferred twenty-five percent of the population temporarily unemployed, or twenty-five percent of the population permanently dead.

“And then there’s the problem of the rest of the continent,” continued the Chief of Staff. “It’s not like the border with Mexico is hermetically sealed. South and Central America would have to fall into lockstep with us. Surely everyone in this room would agree that’s a ridiculous prospect.”

“And I,” said the Secretary of State, “am not sure that such a treatment of our allies is in accordance with our obligations under the NATO charter.”

“Well, Dr. Hughes, there doesn’t seem to be much support for your ideas,” said the president with a resigned shrug, indicating that the discussion was over as far as he was concerned.

Aeolus could not accept that. “Your Chief of Staff is correct that the quarantine would need to include the whole of the Americas. I know it might sound, um, a tad unorthodox – but it can be done. We can help you convince the South American nations, and with a joint cross-continent military effort, the quarantine could be enforced. If you don’t do this, Mr. President, I believe sixty million Americans will die during the course of the next six months.”

“Surely, Dr. Hughes,” the president exclaimed, “you are joking? Don’t get me wrong, I have great respect for you and your abilities in your own profession, but if you suggest that we launch a joint military operation with countries like Bolivia or Colombia, your
fingerspitzengefühl
, when it comes to foreign politics is not particularly well honed. That said,” the president continued, “you’ve made accurate predictions so far, and we will take your advice under due consideration, but surely there’s some form of reasonable compromise that can be reached?”

“I’m afraid, Mr. President,” responded Aeolus, “that as it is said ‘In any compromise between food and poison, it is only death that can win’.” He regretted it instantly. He knew now that he’d lost. Quoting Ayn Rand to a Democratic president might not have been the best idea.

The president frowned and turned to Richard, “Where do you stand on this?”

“Mr. President, I have to admit I’m on the fence. During the last couple of days I’ve learned a lot about the Maluku Flu and I agree there’s a clear and present danger. On the other hand, I’m concerned that a continent-wide military effort probably won’t succeed, and if we go for it and it turns into a mess, we’ll have lost political capital and domestic popular support that we might need later, without really achieving anything.”

“Hank, what do you think?”

“As you know, Mr. Hughes isn’t the only one here with experience in this area. Although I agree the threat is serious, I don’t agree with Mr. Hughes’s predictions. The infection rates we will see in a civilized country, with state-of-the-art medical care, are very different from what we see in an underdeveloped country like Indonesia. The same thing goes for our ability to quarantine infected patients and the people they’ve been in contact with.”

“I propose the following: We abide by both parts of today’s motion in the UN. We add a restriction on inbound flights from India and China, which I am sure Mr. Hughes would agree are highest-risk countries.”

Aeolus nodded, his teeth ground together.

“On top of this, we install temperature monitors at all airports and test all passengers whose passports indicate they’ve been in Southeast Asia the last two weeks. This would provide more than adequate protection.”