The Outer Circle (The Counterpoint Trilogy Book 3) (17 page)

Los Angeles, USA

“Mr. Kron, thank you for agreeing to this interview with us,”
After Ten’s
host John Barry looked comfortable behind his desk. The same could not be said about Jeff Kron, who crossed and uncrossed his legs three times in two minutes. “This is the first time you have accepted such an invitation and I am honored to have this opportunity. Can you tell us what made you change your mind?”

“It’s not a
what
but a
who
,” smiled Jeff. “My campaign manager Robert Marosyan insisted. He thought I came across as a bit too not-mainstream in the Stanton’s interview.”

Marosyan, seated in the audience, moaned.

“And this has nothing to do with a recent popular nationwide appearance by your opponent John Dimon?”

Jeff Kron awkwardly shifted and replied:

“You’ll have to ask Robert that. He is the strategist.”

Barry smirked, “Well, Robert isn’t here on the stage. Let’s start with an easy question. Are you sympathetic to
No Taxation Without Representation
posters that sprang throughout the country?”

“Yes. When citizens believe that the government represents not them but a small elite, they are right to feel left out.”

“And you are not troubled that some of these people break the rules and disappear, ‘drop out’ as they call it, in order to avoid complying with the laws?”

“When the state apparatus becomes all powerful and the rules are too numerous to avoid stepping on, it’s natural for people to do anything and everything to protect their privacy and independence. That’s why they are going outside the system. ‘We the People’ is not synonymous with ‘We the Government.’ Sometimes people in power forget this.”

“But polls show that it’s a minority of people that feel this way. As a matter of fact, more than half pay no taxes at all.”

“That’s a part of the problem.”

“Why, are you opposed to these people having some minimum guaranteed income? Would you want them to starve?”

“No, of course not.” Jeff pulled out a handkerchief and wiped his face. “I just think we are starting to resemble Aldous Huxley’s
Brave New World
. Big swaths of society are completely dependent on the government that piles on ever-increasing debt to enable the situation. Just like in Huxley’s vision, these ‘lower castes’ are encouraged to consume and to amuse themselves with entertainment, drugs, sex. Meanwhile, a small group of ‘World Controllers’ and ‘Alpha-Plus’ specialists manage the country.”

“I don’t remember that book, but I’d say it’s a rather dark vision.” John Barry turned to the audience and mockingly spread his arms. “We are entertaining millions of our viewers now and they don’t seem to be unhappy about it. People
want
to be amused, distracted from their daily worries.”

The audience laughed.

Jeff Kron, however, remained serious, unsmiling.

“You well might be right, many people might be more interested in being entertained than in who governs them and how. Freedom is an ambiguous gift. In the Garden of Eden, Adam and Eve did not have to choose, did not have to think, did not care about being free. But the people that put up
No Taxation Without Representation
posters, they care. And I would like to think that the society that would rather keep more people on welfare than help them get fulfilling jobs is not doing right by those very people. We are now essentially an oligarchy, not a democracy.”

“Hmm, that’s a big charge to make!” Barry pulled down the corners of his mouth. “A great many people would disagree with you.”

“Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but Princeton has done an exhaustive study of over twenty years of public policy issues. Their conclusion was unequivocal: economic elites and organized business interests have an outsized impact on US government policy, while average citizens have little or no influence. How else would you define an oligarchy?”

“Well, you know, academics and their studies...”

“Obviously, this is beyond academia now,” retorted Jeff.

“Very well,” John Barry smiled with his lips, not his eyes. “Jeff, you expressed some reservations about how our free market works. Are you calling for a centrally managed economy?”

“Not at all,” Jeff shook his head. “Not at all. If anything, it is powerful quasi-governmental institutions, such as the Federal Reserve, that attempt to centrally manage key parts of the economy. Did they really think that creating trillions of dollars out of thin air and using that to control society and prices would have no consequences? It’s a fantasy that economy and politics, market and state are completely separate. They are inextricably linked. The government can protect the market with incentives for behaviors that support the market, investments into public goods, and subsidies for basic necessities, while getting rid of non-essential regulation. The government can act to erect walls between itself and powerful special interests. The government can break up or nationalize any institutions that can threaten the market by monopolistic behavior. I want the government to protect the free market against powerful private interests, not manage the economy to protect those interests.”

“You’ve been viewed as not friendly to large financial institutions. Are you against the financial sector?”

“No, I am not. And to be clear, my criticism extends to some non-financial companies as well. Our economy is dominated by a handful of giant corporations. They often start as innovators but then vertically integrate to form near-monopolies. Is it really in the public interest to have the same companies control both creation and distribution of content? As for the finance, it is just as essential as production. But I am against the financial class skimming for themselves an inordinate share of the wealth and political clout. Jesus kicked the money changers out of the Temple for turning it into a den of thieves. It’s about time we do the same. These institutions have been granted an enormous amount of trust to manage the financial system – and they abused it. After repeated offenses, I do believe that social justice demands fundamental changes, from breaking up ‘too big to fail’ to turning some financial functions into public utilities.”

“Social justice? Don’t you just invite people to criticize you for being a socialist?” John Barry spread his arms in fake bewilderment.

“Respectfully, John, you’re missing the point!” retorted Jeff, pointing a finger at the host. “Justice and morality are not somehow separate from capitalism. Without societal cohesion, without social trust, there can be no economic growth. Just look how big chunks of our market are disappearing into a ‘grey economy.’ When we allow immoral actions, they set in motion a reaction. We can’t mouth moral laws without meaning them. A nation, like an individual, must have a conscience in order to survive.”

“Thank you. That’s quite a response,” John Barry looked taken aback. “Since you brought up national conscience: Jeff – is America exceptional?”

Barry set back, a tiny ‘I got you now’ smile playing on his lips.

“You know, John, that’s a very good question,” Jeff smiled back and John’s smile disappeared. “To me, America is a concept, a state of mind, the province of free, empowered people. It’s not simply a physical place. To be a shining city on the hill is a challenge that the founders gave us, not a given.”

“I’m not sure I understand what you are saying,” John Barry looked annoyed.

“I’m saying that our exceptionalism derives only from the legacy that we inherited from those who came before us. Someone said that ‘freedom is participation in power’ – that was our inheritance, giving everyone a chance to share in our governance. We must safeguard this heritage, we must never allow private interests to develop too much sway over the government. Americans are idealists. We want to pursue moral principles, but this does not automatically make everything that we do right. We should always hold a mirror to ourselves. We should not blindly extend our trust to the government and follow orders, because where does devotion end and submission to power begin? Do we have to strive for dominance in all matters? How does love of country become a reason to make war? We must educate ourselves so we know whether we are being well-governed. We should be proud of our country without being hostile to or dismissive of others. There is a fine line between pride and arrogance, we should not cross it. We should remember that secular power is not justified because of its mere existence but instead only if it’s consistent with moral principles. That’s what I mean by our exceptionalism.”

Marosyan moaned again.

A small group of people gathered with drinks around a giant projection screen in a high-ceilinged room. One of them turned to others and said:

“I told you, he is a dangerous communist. We can’t afford to let him win.”

Beijing, China

Eight men sat around the table in an office in Zhongnanhai imperial garden. The mood was deliberate, unsmiling.

General Secretary Kai Liu started the meeting:

“General Cao, we invited you to the Steering Committee to discuss your plan for Taiwan reunification.”

“Comrade General Secretary, thank you for the opportunity. Allow me to illustrate with the map,” Wu Cao walked over to the map now displayed on the wall. “China is vulnerable from the seas, our coast is wide open and not protected by any natural defenses. There are two island chains creating what we call ‘Near Seas’ and ‘Far Seas.' The first chain stretches from the southern tip of Japan to Brunei and encompasses Taiwan and the two near seas, the South China Sea and the East China Sea. The second chain can be roughly drawn from the middle of Japan in a semi-circle through Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Micronesia and Palau, ending at the middle of Indonesia.”

“And except for Xisha, or Paracel Islands, we don’t own any of them!” pointed out Sun Yang. “So militarily, they don’t do us any good.”

“My esteemed colleague is correct on the first point,” acknowledged Wu Cao. “And until very recently, he would have been correct on his second point as well. The U.S. 7
th
Fleet is stationed at the top of the second island chain, in Yokosuka, Japan. Despite recent reductions, it is still more powerful than any of the naval forces in the area, with over fifty ships, close to three hundred airplanes and over thirty thousand men. We have no aircraft carriers that can rival even the aging
Nimitz
-class carriers they have. And with no forward air or missile bases and limited precision of long-range missiles, we had no way of effectively countering them unless they sailed all the way to the eastern edge of Taiwan. Until now.”

Wu Cao went back to his seat to pour another glass of water. The room was silent, everyone watching him drink, put the glass back on the table and return to the map.

“About ten years ago we projected that it would take until mid-century to catch up with the U.S. Navy in ‘blue water,’ far-from-the-land operations. But we have also recognized that some of the technological trends will revolutionize military affairs and perhaps allow for defensive outposts that do not require large scale military bases but still support long-range operations. I am talking about missiles with advanced targeting capabilities and unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones as most people refer to them.”

“But General,” interjected Wang Hunshan, “I am as much in favor of returning Taiwan to its proper homeland as anyone, but only a couple of years ago we’ve been told that our high-precision maneuverable anti-ship missiles operate at up to 150 miles. That’s enough to protect the Formosa Strait, but it won’t stop the 7
th
Fleet from approaching Taiwan. And the much-ballyhooed Dong Feng 26D anti-ship ballistic ‘carrier killers’ don’t have sufficient precision to guarantee that we can stop the Americans.”

“Comrade Hunshan has a good memory,” nodded Wu Cao. “The range of high-precision missiles has been extended to 200 miles since then, but that’s still not enough to deny the 7
th
Fleet access to the East China Sea and Taiwan’s vicinity. The DF-26D has a range of over 2,000 miles, but it’s hard to hit a moving target at such distance. And, as the existence of these missiles has been well-known, the Americans likely developed their own defenses. However, I am not talking about large missiles each designed to destroy a major ship. Instead, these are smaller missiles designed to attack from the air and under the waterline. They are not capable of sinking a carrier but a multitude of them can make a carrier ineffective by crippling the flight deck, damaging the rudder, and knocking out communications facilities. They can also attack lesser-defended support ships, making it more difficult for the fleet to advance. Small and medium size attack drones will provide a similar effect. Most important, they have a range of up to 500 miles and can operate without specialized bases or launchers.”

“Why is this important?” inquired Kai Liu.

“Over the past three years, we have built a number of oil and gas exploration platforms in the first and second island chains. The Japanese refuse to hand over to us the Diaoyu Islands, or the Senkaku Islands as they call them, but they gladly let us have oil exploration leases there. Six platforms were built in that area. The second chain – the Caroline Islands, the Gilbert Islands, the Itbayat Island bordering the Luzon Strait – all have oil and gas platforms there now. And they are actively drilling. But they also secretly house hundreds of missiles and drones that can be launched against the 7
th
Fleet. Once launched, they will be controlled by mainland operators using the
Qu Dian
C4ISR network and guided via our
Beidou
GPS system. Combined, the network of these platforms ensures that the 7
th
Fleet will not be able to approach Taiwan without suffering a major, hopefully crippling attack, especially if used in combination with the DF-26D ballistic missiles that will occupy the Americans’ attention.”

“But once these weapons are launched, the U.S. will know what to expect. They will destroy all the platforms in the network!” said Kai Liu.

“True,” agreed Wu Cao. “They are designed for one time use: to damage the 7
th
Fleet and prevent it from reaching Taiwan, or at least slow down its progress.”

“How much did you spend on this one-time use system?” asked Sun Yang.

“I don’t have an exact number, but about 300 billion renminbi.”

“So with people rioting in the streets, the Navy has spent 300 billion renminbi on a secret program that may or may not work? And how many people will die in the American retaliation on these platforms?” Sun Yang was practically spitting saliva.

“Yes, there are sacrifices to be made!” angrily retorted Wu Cao. “Remember, our objective is to slow down a superior enemy, buy time. Given a couple of weeks without the U.S. opposition, our forces will take Taiwan and the Second Artillery Corps will install batteries of high-precision maneuverable theater-range ballistic missiles that will forever prevent the 7
th
Fleet from coming close to Taiwan. And then we’ll take the Diaoyu Islands from Japan and continue expanding the range of our missiles, pushing the U.S. out of “our seas” while we are building our own ‘blue water’ capabilities!” Cao pounded the table. “This is just the beginning. China’s fate lies with the sea. Once we establish our hegemony over the adjacent seas, we will start replacing the U.S. as a dominant naval power by setting up our bases around the world.”

“Comrade Cao,” Kai Liu raised his palm. “You are asking us to take a major gamble with this untested network of platform-based missiles and drones. It’s not the kind of chance I like taking. The range of our high-precision missiles continues to expand, why not wait until we can reliably stop the 7
th
Fleet from approaching Taiwan? Is there anything else in your plan?”

“Comrade General Secretary,” demurred Cao. “It will take at least another ten years before our high-precision missiles have the range necessary to prevent the Americans from coming to Taiwan’s help. At least. Unfortunately, we can’t afford to wait this long. Not only does our economic situation dictate a quicker action, but the changing political climate in America as well. Since the 2019 crisis, the American mood has turned very anti-Chinese. The leader of the new
Spirit of ‘76
party is planning to deploy American troops and missiles on Taiwan, and he is ahead in the polls now. If this is allowed to happen, not only Taiwan will be lost, but we’ll also be dealing with an even angrier domestic populace. And, of course, you are right – it would be imprudent for us to not have other surprises. As you know, we’ve been preparing for the next war to be the ‘information technology’ war. We have developed sophisticated capabilities for jamming American communication and information systems, including their GPS network. We know that this can only work temporarily but again, we are looking for a short-term advantage.”

“And you think the Americans have not developed counter-jamming capabilities? What if your electronic attack won’t buy us any time? You are still asking us to gamble with unproven weapons!” Kai Liu was shaking his head to deny Cao’s plan.

“Comrade Liu, there is no doubt that the Americans will try to disable our space-based communication and guidance capabilities, just like we’ll try to disable theirs. This is actually one area where we have an advantage. In the near seas, we can rely on land-based communication and radar systems. In addition, our drone systems include not only attack but also communication platforms. We will launch a drone-based relay network that will cover the territory to the second island chain. It will enable us to maintain guidance and communication even if our space-based resources become unavailable.”

“I am glad you thought of this, General Cao,” spoke Guo Zheng, Vice-Chairman of the Commission for Politics and Law, who’d been silent until then. “But war is unpredictable. What are the chances of the American 7
th
Fleet breaking through your defenses and approaching Taiwan?”

Wu Cao nodded, “We ran hundreds of simulations with different scenarios and variables. If we can hold off the Americans for two weeks, we are 99% confident that we’ll capture Taiwan and place ourselves in a position where we can’t be dislodged. In two out of every three simulations, we’ve been able to prevent the Americans from approaching Taiwan for at least two weeks.”

“Two out of three is simply not good enough!” Kai Liu looked at Wu Cao with a
Why did you even bother?
expression.

“I understand, Comrade General Secretary. We ran simulations of the scenarios where the 7
th
Fleet gets to Taiwan before we had a chance to secure it. In at least half of the simulations, our missiles and land-based aircraft forces have been able to prevent them from effectively interfering.”

“General Cao, I don’t want to get caught up in numbers but it sounds like we are still looking at almost twenty percent probability of failure. I will not take this chance,” Kai Liu shook his head.

“I understand and agree, Comrade General Secretary,” said Wu Cao. “We should not take this chance. But our risks can be significantly reduced with a strong ally. The Russian Pacific Fleet is in the area. In the past ten years they have re-built their capabilities and now have seventeen surface ships including two aircraft carriers and twenty-three submarines. While no match for the U.S. 7
th
Fleet, the Pacific Fleet presents a formidable force that can protect our northern flank. When it is added into the equation, our chances of success rise to over 95%.”

“I believe that the Russian participation is crucial,” agreed Sun Yang. “Winning the battle for Taiwan is not the same as winning the war. Even if we capture Taiwan, we are in danger of being blockaded by the Americans. While we have built up significant strategic reserves of oil and other materials, on our own we will not be able to withstand a naval blockade for more than six months. But with Russia, we control much of Eurasia and have the resources, military and economic capabilities to prevail.”

“But what makes you think that the Russians will do this?” asked Kai Liu. “The Russian President Mosin is careful. He allied with us in a financial attack against the U.S., but a military action is a different matter.”

“Well, they are a junior partner in our alliance. They depend on us for the bulk of their energy sales,” pointed out Cao.

“Yes, and we depend on them. They might be a junior partner but I’ve seen nothing in Mosin’s behavior to convince me that he will go along with this plan,” Kai Liu shook his head.

“If I may, Comrade General Secretary,” Guo Zheng interjected calmly. “Your doubts about Mosin are well grounded. But we have been working on them and have reasons to believe that a more China-friendly attitude will emerge in a not-too-distant future.”

“And what reasons these might be?” Kai Liu leaned forward, his eyes focused on Guo Zheng.

“At this moment, the reasons are not sufficiently specific. I think we’ll just need a bit more time to properly quantify them,” came back a careful response.

“Fine,” Kai Liu sat straight and drummed his fingers on the table. “There is no question that we have to take action, and soon. The Taiwan option could solve some of the economic issues while rekindling the nationalistic spirit. Our beating heart is nationalistic and capturing Taiwan will raise the country’s spirit and reinforce the Party’s greatness. But we can’t risk defeat and without Russian military and economic alliance the risks are not acceptable. Get me their agreement and I’ll authorize moving forward.”