Authors: David Capps
“Earthquakes,” Guang Xi said softly. “But we don’t have the experience with the new technology to do that effectively, do we?”
“No,” Dr. Zheng replied.
“Right now, the only way we could trigger a large earthquake would be to plant explosives along a fault line and detonate them in a specific sequence,” Guang Xi said. “There’s nowhere in America we could do that and not be seen. We couldn’t do it.”
“There is a major fault line close to America where we wouldn’t be seen,” Dr. Huang said. “And with the right explosives and the right timing it would look entirely natural.”
“And the results would be deadly?” Fong asked.
“Very much so,” Guang Xi replied picking up on where Dr. Huang was going with the discussion. “The Cascadia Subduction Zone is physically almost identical to the Sumatra-Andaman Subduction Zone. The same depth under the water, the same distance from land, but it’s only about two thirds the length.”
Fong yanked his cell phone out of his pocket and dialed. He moved away from the small group and spoke quietly for a few minutes and then hung up. “The Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and tsunami triggered something in my memory. I’m having some research done. We should have results here momentarily.
“The northwest coast of America isn’t heavily populated like Sumatra and Indonesia, and the coastal configuration is different. The effect of the tsunami wouldn’t be as significant.”
“But it would still – ”
Fong’s cell phone rang. He answered and listened. “That’s what I thought. Thank you.” He put his phone back in his pocket.
“There’s something else you need to know,” Fong said. “The United States Secretary of Defense personally visited Sumatra and several other places where the earthquake and tsunami damage was at its maximum.”
“Okay,” Dr. Huang replied. “So he personally visited the site of the disaster, so what?”
“It was the only disaster site he personally visited.” Fong replied. “Ever.”
“It was a weapon test,” Dr. Huang said suddenly. “That’s why he went to the site – to see the effectiveness of the weapon.”
“You can’t be serious,” Dr. Zheng replied.
“They killed 230,000 people for a weapon test?” Guang Xi said.
Dr. Huang was visibly shaken. “So many people. So much death and destruction. Isn’t there some other way of doing this?”
Fong reached out and put his hand on Dr. Huang’s shoulder. “I know the doubts you have. I’ve had them too. I keep wondering if there is another way.”
“Yes,” Dr. Huang replied. “A diplomatic way – an agreement not to use a weapon like this against our people.”
“Unfortunately, there is an agreement already in place,” Fong replied. “And the Americans violate that agreement with impunity. Each year the coast of China is pummeled by typhoons, some of which we now know have been created and controlled by this military facility in Alaska – a facility that is under the complete control of the United States Government. The question I keep coming back to is what will it take to stop these attacks against us and our people? If we don’t reply in this harsh method, what motivation will the American government and military have to stop what they are doing?”
“If we do not draw American blood, they will continue to attack us secretly, won’t they?” Dr. Huang asked.
“I have come to no other conclusion,” Fong replied. “Neither has the Premier nor the General. What we propose to do here, is done out of necessity, not revenge.”
Dr. Huang went reluctantly to his computer and started typing. Within two minutes the printer began spitting out sheets of seismic recordings. “Here, look at this.” Dr. Huang placed the first set of seismic recordings in front of the group. “Guang Xi, what do you see?”
“It’s a typical subduction zone rupture pattern.”
“Yes, it is,” Dr. Huang replied. “This is the seismic recording that was released from various countries, specifically from America first. Then other countries released the same recording.” He placed another seismic recording on the table.
“This one’s different,” Guang Xi commented. “Look, there are two spikes that shouldn’t be there.”
“This recording is of the same event, but from our own equipment,” Dr. Huang replied. ”What does this recording tell you?”
Guang Xi looked up at Dr. Huang. “Those two spikes are high velocity explosive signatures.”
“Yes,” Dr. Huang confirmed.
“It
was
a weapon test,” Dr. Zheng said. “And by releasing the seismic recordings and pushing other countries to release the same data, they covered up what they had done. No one would dare to challenge them.”
“So General Hu Jiang Xi was right in his suspicions, America is waging a secret war on other countries that don’t bend to its wishes,” Fong said.
“With impunity,” Dr. Zheng added.
“Yes,” Fong replied. “So far.”
“Guang Xi, what size do you estimate those two explosions to be?” Dr. Huang asked.
“The Sumatra-Andaman earthquake was what, a 9.2? That would make the explosive devices something in the range of… 100 kilotons each.”
“That places them in the nuclear range,” Dr. Zheng said. “Could that be a size launched from a submarine as a torpedo or a mine?”
“Yes,” Fong replied. “And it probably was.”
“Guang Xi, could you calculate what size explosives and how many would be needed to trigger the Cascadia Subduction Zone and not leave an explosive signature like this one did?”
Guang Xi thought for a moment. “Yes, I can.”
“Fong, inform General Hu Jiang Xi that we have a plan.”
“All we need now is the agreement of the Central Committee tomorrow,” Fong replied. “And America’s secret war against China will come to an end.”
State Department, Washington D.C.
“What the hell is going on?” Senator Elizabeth Bechtel from Oregon demanded. She was 49, five-five in height, trim and fit, with dark brown hair, which she kept dyed on a regular schedule. She was attractive, but her sternness and relentless focus showed through her face.
“Senator, with all due respect, I can’t get into this with you right now. We’re in a state of crisis and I don’t have the time,” Secretary of State Sam Forrester replied.
“You’re going to make the time,” she insisted.
I’ve known him for years,
she thought.
Either he talks tough or he acts. As long as he’s talking back, I can keep pushing.
“I’m on the Senate Intelligence Committee. I know we have a freighter loaded with earthquake relief supplies that was just refused entry into Shanghai Harbor. All other relief ships are being let in and are unloading. I thought China was our friend. Why are they turning our ship away?”
“Look, I really don’t have the time, so can I get back to you?” he asked.
“No,” she replied firmly. “What’s wrong with our ship?”
What is he hiding?
“Nothing,” he said. “Now please get out of my office. I’ll get back to you. I promise.”
She studied his face and recognized the panic he was trying to hide. “It’s more than just our relief ship, isn’t it? Have they turned any of our commercial ships away?”
“No, senator, they haven’t. Now get out of my office.” He stood defiantly for a moment. When she didn’t move he added, “Do I have to call security?”
She slowly walked around him, examining his features more closely. “Sam, you and I have been friends for a long time,” she said quietly. “We stood together in the Senate and fought for the same things, believed in the same things. Just because you’re Secretary of State now doesn’t change that. You look terrified. Nothing has ever affected you like this. If it’s not just our ship, what is it?”
He took a long breath and sighed. “It’s going to hit the news media in a matter of hours anyway. China just cancelled the visas for every American citizen in their country. Our people have 48 hours to leave the country.”
“Or what?” she asked, stunned by the revelation. “Or they will be arrested?”
“They didn’t say, but yes, the implication is that our people will be arrested.”
She raised her left hand to her mouth, paused and lowered it. “Certainly there must be some sort of diplomatic solution to this crisis? What is our ambassador in Beijing doing?”
“He’s trying to get in to see the Chinese President. So far he isn’t getting an answer from anyone. They’re ignoring him.”
If they’re stonewalling our people, this is serious.
“Then the 48 hours doesn’t apply to our embassy?”
“No, it doesn’t.”
“What the hell happened?”
“I don’t know.”
“What about all of the companies we run inside of China?” she asked, the economic ramifications running through her mind. “What happens to them?”
“They might get nationalized. What most people don’t know is that the Chinese Military is a silent partner in every foreign company that operates in Mainland China.”
“We import a half trillion dollars’ worth of goods from China every year. What’s going to happen with that?”
He glanced out the window of his office, slowly returning his gaze to her. “We don’t know. Right now it’s just our people. So far no shipping has been affected, but that could change at any time.”
“And our military ships?”
“Nothing yet. Right now, we don’t have any U.S. military ships near Chinese waters, so we’ll have to wait and see what happens.
“Holy crap,” she said, as she sat in one of his chairs, suddenly feeling overwhelmed. “Any explanation from China?”
“Nope. Not a single word.”
“Did they seem angry? Upset?”
“With the Chinese, it’s often hard to tell, but no, no angry words – just an official notice to leave.”
“And you don’t have any idea why this is happening?”
“Not a clue. The CIA seems stumped, NSA is silent as usual. The President is coming unglued wanting to find out what happened.”
“Do you think it has something to do with the earthquake?” she asked.
Forrester shrugged. “The timing is curious, but so far we don’t have any evidence that it is connected to the order to leave.”
“Damn, this is serious,” she said. “The Chinese don’t do anything without a solid reason behind it. The political ramifications are immense. You’ll keep me informed?”
“Yes, I’ll do that.”
* * *
“Alexa, get Bob Schwartz from Pollard Research on the phone,” Senator Bechtel ordered as she entered her office in the Hart Office Building. She stopped and looked out the window in the direction of the White House. “Something’s about to blow up in our face and I need to know what it is.”
“Bob Schwartz, line two,” Alexa announced. Alexa was Senator Bechtel’s executive secretary.
Bechtel picked up the phone. “Bob, can we meet in the usual place? Yeah, ten minutes? Thank you.”
As Bechtel entered the small coffee shop located on H Street, she spotted Bob Schwartz at a small table. Bob was five-ten, sixty pounds overweight with heavy glasses, puffy cheeks and prematurely graying long hair pulled back in a ponytail. She smiled when she saw that he sat with his back to the front door. She always sat facing the door so she could see anyone that might approach. She looked around suspiciously before speaking.
“So what do you need to know?” he asked.
“I need some deep research on the recent Sichuan earthquake and how anything we have going on may be connected.”
“What is it you suspect has happened?”
“That’s just it. We have the earthquake in China, we send in a freighter full of relief supplies and our ship is the only one turned away. In addition, all visas for U.S. citizens in China have been cancelled. Everyone needs to leave in the next 48 hours.”
Bob sat back in his chair. “So it’s personal.”
“And serious,” she replied. “Dig into everything – not just the official side, look at the fringe stuff too. I need answers and I need them now.”
“Sounds like you want this off-book.”
“Yes,” she said. “I’ll see that you get the regular back-channel funding for this. How long?”
“The easy stuff I can get right away, but you probably already know what I will find. The deep stuff is going to take a week, maybe more, depending on what I find and what needs to be found under that. I’ll make it a priority.”
She smiled. “I knew I could count on you.”
Dolphin Beach, Oregon
Willa was talking with Betty in the Gift Shoppe when Jason strolled in.
“Nice place,” Jason stated. “I like the color combinations. I’m Jason Roberts,” he said as he offered his hand to Betty. As she shook his hand he continued, “I’m here to revise the evacuation plan for Dolphin Beach in case of a tsunami. I noticed a second story set back from the front of the Gift Shoppe. You live upstairs?”
Betty seemed taken aback by Jason’s question and took a step backwards.
“I checked on him,” Willa explained. “Caltech, genius, honest, exceptionally good at mechanical systems.” Jason blushed and then smiled at Betty.
“I didn’t see an outside stairway,” Jason said.
Betty studied him for a moment. “It’s storage.”
“Good,” Jason said. “No need for alternative egress.” He tapped on the screen of his tablet. “Thank you for helping. I apologize for the intrusion.” He turned and left.
Willa followed him to the next building and watched as he used his laser measuring device to measure the width, length and height of the front of the building. He stepped back to look at the roofline and tapped several more times on his tablet. He entered the barber shop next. Willa followed him in.
“Hi, I’m Jason Roberts. I’m here to revise the evacuation plan in case of a tsunami.” Jason shook hands with the barber. “I’ve got a few questions you can help me with.”
Willa watched as Jason asked about the age of the building and checked the general interior layout. He thanked the barber and turned to leave.
“I was thinking a presentation like you described would take months to prepare,” Willa said. Jason seemed surprised to see her standing there.
“Normally, it would,” he replied, “if you did it from nothing. But I’ve spent a year and a half developing this program. I’ve got 827 different types of buildings programmed in with different types of construction. All I have to do is select the building type, the size, the age, the soil conditions, the spacing from other structures and roof type. I also input the surrounding geography. From there I can select the magnitude of the earthquake, the earthquake type, proximity to water, distance from the epicenter and depth of the quake. The program generates the graphics and effects based on the mathematical model I developed.”
Willa felt overwhelmed with the scope of the information. “So, Saturday?”
“Saturday’s good,” he said as he turned his attention to the next building.
Over the next few days Willa saw Jason from time to time as she made her rounds talking with business owners about Saturday’s presentation. Jason spent Friday taking measurements of the streets, the side of the hill that surrounded Dolphin Beach and the sea shore. When he headed out on the wooden pier Willa followed him. She stopped and looked into the bucket next to one of the locals.
“Henry, how is the crabbing today?” Willa asked.
Henry turned. His face brightened as he saw Willa. Henry had retired two years ago. He was five ten with a small pot belly, a scruffy beard, and had an old pipe stuck in the corner of his mouth. He wore an old, worn, red and blue plaid flannel shirt, faded blue jeans and an ancient, army drab denim floppy hat. Pulling the pipe from his mouth with his right hand, he smiled.
“Willa, how are you doin’ today?”
“Good,” Willa replied. “You?”
“Oh, fine, fine,” he replied. “Crabs are hungry today. Doin’ real good. I’ll have plenty for Carla’s Catch of the Day.” Carla’s was one of the more popular restaurants in Dolphin Beach, located on Main Street, half a block north of the Village Center, specializing in seafood. “With a catch like this, she’ll fix me a nice crab dinner for free.”
“Oh, I think there’s more to her dinners than the crabs you catch.”
He blushed and looked down at the crab bucket. “Maybe. I really like her.”
“She likes you, too,” Willa replied. “You should ask her out.”
Henry fussed a bit, looking nervous. “Yeah, maybe, but I couldn’t really take her out for dinner, now could I? I mean she owns a restaurant and all.”
“She just might enjoy a dinner she didn’t have to cook, Henry. Think about that.”
Rather than wait for Henry to answer, Willa headed down the pier toward Jason.
The pier was a popular place for both tourists and locals. Blue Crabs were in abundant supply and catching them was the most popular sport in Dolphin Beach. She passed several more people with Blue Crabs in their buckets. The local restaurants would cook and prepare the crabs anyone brought in for a small fee. It was one of the nice touches that made Dolphin Beach a favorite and drew people from Washington, Oregon and Northern California.
“You have different pier types in your program?” Willa asked.
Jason had been looking down into the water at the end of the pier and spun around in surprise.
“Oh,” he replied. “Thirteen types of piers, 187 different types of bridges, which you don’t have, and 82 types of water towers, which you also don’t have.”
“We have the Three Sentinels,” Willa said, pointing to the three large rocks that stood their silent vigil over Dolphin Beach. ”Would they break up a tsunami?”
Jason looked at the three large rocks protruding out of the water. “Depends on the wave,” he said. He pointed the camera lens on his tablet toward the Three Sentinels and tapped the screen. “Do you happen to know how high they are?”
“Sure, the center one is eighty feet high, the one on the right is sixty five and the one on the left is sixty feet. But that depends on the tide. Each one has navigational lights mounted on it and the center one has a radio navigational beacon on top.”
“Okay, I can figure that in,” Jason said. “A small tsunami might be affected by them, but if we’re looking at the tsunami from the Cascadia Subduction Zone, then no, they wouldn’t make a difference.”
“But they’re really large rocks,” Willa replied, wondering exactly what Jason was thinking.
“Relative to a hundred foot tsunami, they’re not that big.”
Willa looked at the Three Sentinels and tried to imagine a wave that was that much higher than the Sentinels were. It was a frightening thought. “So what does it look like?” she asked.
“I don’t know yet,” he replied. “The Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup was focused more on rebuilding towns that have been destroyed. The working premise was that every town directly on the coast would be a total loss.”
Willa suddenly felt her knees weaken. She reached out to the railing for support. “What about the people?”
Jason turned to her. “That’s where I hope to make a difference.”
* * *
Saturday morning Willa checked her outfit in the mirror four times before deciding on the blue dress. She poured a cup of coffee that she couldn’t finish and skipped breakfast altogether. She felt like a nervous wreck. She held her hands out in front of her and watched her fingers to see how badly they were shaking.
God, what are people going to think of all this?
“You can do this,” she said to herself. She looked in the mirror one more time, turning slightly to the right and then to the left.
God, why on my watch?
People had arrived at the town movie theater early. Some had gone inside and taken seats. Some appeared to be too nervous to go inside at all. Willa watched their expressions, which ranged from worried to terrified. She felt encouraged by the number of people who looked only worried.
“Look,” she said to the group of people standing outside the theater. “I’m very worried too, but we’re better off knowing what could really happen rather than letting our imagination run away with us, or worse yet, ignoring something that is life threatening.” She looked at their expressions, searching for some sign of agreement.
“It’s a waste of time.” Frank Gillis said in a loud voice. “I looked it up. The Cascadia Fault ruptures only every 400 to 700 years. The last time was only 300 years ago. Nothing’s going to happen in our lifetime, so save your time and stop worrying. Go home.”
“Everyone on the coast knows this is a threat,” Willa replied, facing Frank. “We need to know exactly how big that threat is and exactly what could happen.”
“Could happen, but won’t,” Frank said.
“You don’t know that,” Willa shot back.
“You don’t know that it will,” Frank retorted.
Willa and Frank stood nose to nose, fuming at one another.
“Would it hurt to take a look?” Jason said calmly. Willa and Frank turned their angry expressions on Jason. “Come on,” Jason cajoled, “is a ten minute look going to kill anyone?”
Willa softened her expression and looked around. “We need to see what Jason has.” She walked around Jason and into the theater. Frank simply scoffed, turned and walked away. Some of the people followed Willa into the movie theater and some turned away and went home.
Jason waved Willa over toward him. “What Frank said is the popular notion of the time between major earthquakes of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, but if you go back over the last ten thousand years and look at the core samples from the most recent research, you’ll find there have been forty-one major earthquakes during that time. That averages out to two hundred thirty nine point nine years in between earthquakes. We’re currently at three hundred and thirteen years since the last major event, so we’re actually overdue for a major quake.”
“So there really is some scientific basis for what you are doing.” Willa replied. “Not just the un-natural pattern you see?”
“There is,” Jason said, “I just don’t want to turn this into a fear mongering session. I’d rather have people feel confident in their preparations than frozen in fear.”
“Okay,” Willa said, realizing the danger Dolphin Beach faced. Now, she was more nervous than before. She just hoped she could get through this presentation without her feelings locking up inside of her and freezing her into inaction. Willa waited as Jason made some last-minute adjustments to his equipment. When he was ready, he looked at her and nodded. Willa stepped to the center of the small stage at the front of the theater.
“Thank you for attending this presentation,” Willa began. “I know this is a contentious issue.” She looked around. To her surprise the theater was mostly full. “Jason Roberts is from the California Institute of Technology and is an expert on the Cascadia Subduction Zone that runs along the Pacific Northwest coastline. He is also an expert on buildings, their structure, and what happens to buildings during an earthquake. Will you please welcome Jason Roberts?”
The applause was sparse and unenthusiastic. Jason calmly walked to the center of the stage and pressed a button on his remote. An image of Dolphin Beach appeared on the screen, viewed from the ocean. “During a rupture of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, this is what will happen to Dolphin Beach.”