“That’s obvious,” said Alan Ball. “Tell me a country that wouldn’t.”
“Really?” said Wu. Nervousness made the reply come out more sharply than he intended. “I’m sorry, Dr. Ball. What I mean is, we haven’t. Unless I’ve missed something today, we haven’t been talking about how can we force China to take bigger cuts than we will.”
Benton smiled. “Maybe we haven’t got round to it. What else?”
“There’s the party angle,” said Wu. “How does the party use this?”
“Will they try to use it?”
“Absolutely, if they can. Mr. President, as I understand it, President Gartner tried to do something very similar in the context of our own political system. Multiply that tenfold in the Chinese context.”
“What would be their attitude if Hong Kong had to be abandoned?” asked Ben Hoffman.
Wu smiled. “Unfortunate. Very unfortunate.”
“I’m sensing irony, Dr. Wu,” said the president.
“Yes, sir. To be serious, it would be difficult for China economically, of course, very difficult, but politically it would have its attractions.”
“What else?”
“President Wen will be talking to different people, and he’ll be saying different things. They’ll know he’s saying different things, although they won’t know what those things are. Wen’s a classic power broker. He plays cliques. There are at least three potential successors, Zhai, Xuan and Ding. No one knows which one will succeed.”
“Does Wen know?”
“That’s an interesting question, sir. There’s quite a lot of debate about that. Even if he does know, anything can happen between now and the party congress next year when he’s due to announce his successor. Each of the three heirs apparent are using this time to shore up support. That’s support through Wen, to keep his favor, and independent of Wen, so that if Wen turns against them, they’ve got their own power base. Ding’s the wiliest, but the others are no slouches. You don’t get to a high position in the party without knowing what you’re doing. What we’re talking about here sounds big, Mr. President, possibly the biggest thing since the troubles of 2013. Everyone will use it for their own purposes if they can.”
“What about sanctions?” asked the president.
“They’ll outlast us. I’ve read the papers that were circulated. Anything we can do, they’ll sustain it for longer.”
“Exactly,” said Ball.
“Unless it’s in someone’s interest not to.”
“Explain,” said the president.
“Say, for example, we impose sanctions, and Wen resists. Say Ding Jiahui thinks—for whatever reason—this is a time he can push against Wen and establish his place in the succession beyond challenge. It doesn’t have to be Ding. It could be Zhai, it could be Xuan. Each of them controls media outlets. They’ll use that control to work up a case against Wen, tying him to the sanctions and the pain it’s causing. Two months later, you might find you’re talking to someone who wants the sanctions lifted and is prepared to cut a deal.”
“But it wouldn’t be Wen?”
“It could be Wen. He could do the exact same thing in reverse. Say he’s decided to take Xuan out of the equation. He uses Xuan as his mouthpiece in defying you to impose sanctions, and Xuan does it, thinking he’ll build his relationship with Wen and achieve national approval. Then Wen changes course, uses Ding to cut a deal with you, and Xuan is discredited.”
“Dr. Wu,” said Eales, “I think we need something on the likely ways this might play out.”
Wu nodded.
“Can you do that?”
“I can. But I have to say, there are numerous ways this could go. I can try and say which scenario is more likely, but that still leaves considerable uncertainty. I’d be more comfortable if I could take this out to some other people at State.”
“Not yet,” said the president. “Just give us your thoughts, for a start.”
Larry Olsen’s voice came through from the speaker. “Maybe we should get Chen in and give him a hint. Mention the
S
word.”
“Sanctions?” said Eales.
“Why not?”
The president was watching Alan Ball. Ball’s face was grim.
“Just to see what happens,” said Olsen. “It might be interesting.”
Benton thought about it. “It might be.”
~ * ~
Alan Ball asked for a few minutes of the president’s time at the end of the meeting. He stayed behind as the others left the Oval Office.
Benton waited to hear what he wanted to say.
Ball’s face was grave. “Joe, I have a real concern. I know you’d want me to be open with you. Olsen’s pushing us way too fast. If we’re not careful, we’re going to find ourselves imposing sanctions on China.”
Benton smiled. “I think we’re a long way from that, Alan.”
“Not in Larry’s mind. Is that what you really want?”
Sanctions against China were the last thing Joe Benton wanted to invoke, and he thought Alan Ball ought to know it.
Ball hesitated. His voice dropped. “Joe, I think you should reconsider.”
“Reconsider what?”
Ball didn’t reply.
Benton stared at him. “You think I should reconsider Larry?”
“I don’t mean to talk out of turn.”
Benton watched him. He had already spoken out of turn, and must know it. Benton also found something unpleasant in the fact that Ball was doing it when Olsen was out of Washington.
“I wouldn’t be saying anything if I didn’t think this was really important. I think we have a real problem here.”
“Go ahead, Alan,” said Benton quietly.
“You appointed Larry because he gave you a perspective you value, one which was different from the perspective that myself and Al Graham and a number of other advisors shared. I understand that. By all means, Joe, use him as an advisor. Get his input. But putting him in as secretary of state. . . He’s rash. He’s aggressive. He’s putting us in a position that’s way too hard. Now he wants to start imposing sanctions.”
“He said something about a hint. I don’t even know what that means yet.”
“That’s what I’m worried about.”
“It’s okay. We have an agreement. He’s not going to say anything to Chen before I speak with him.”
Ball shook his head in exasperation. “He’s...”
“What, Alan?”
“He’s not the right guy!” Ball’s hands were clenched in exasperation. “Ask anyone who worked with him at State. I’m just being completely frank with you.”
“I appreciate your frankness,” said the president evenly.
“Really, he isn’t. Joe, if you’ve made a mistake, it’s best to recognize it early and do something about it, not keep going so one mistake gets compounded by another.”
Joe Benton was silent for a moment.
“I hear what you’re saying, Al, but I’m not sure if I have made a mistake. To be fair to Larry, I’m not sure at what point I’d say he’s done the wrong thing. Where he’s been toe rash, as you call it. And in the end, I take responsibility for the decisions this administration makes. Me, not Larry.” Benton paused. “But I will think about what you’ve said. And I will talk to Larry and see exactly what he means to say to Chen before he meets him.”
Ball’s face was a picture of misery. “Please, Joe. Please, don’t let him talk to Chen.”
~ * ~
Wednesday, February 23
West Wing, The White House
Chen Liangming looked around the room. “I see our numbers are growing,” he remarked.
“Mr. Chen, this is Dr. Wu,” said Larry Olsen. “He works at the State Department. You may know him.”
Chen shook his head.
Oliver Wu extended his hand.
“We have no intention to ambush you, Mr. Chen,” said Ben Hoffman. “If you’re uncomfortable being here as a lone hand, we can rearrange this meeting so you have the opportunity to call on additional resource.”
Chen smiled. He shook his head again.
“Then would you care to sit?”
Chen sat. The others took their seats as well.
“It’s about three weeks since we met?” said Olsen.
“Yes, Mr. Secretary.”
“I hope you had a good Chinese New Year.”
“Thank you, Mr. Secretary. I was fortunate to be able to go home.”
“To Guangdong?”
“Yes. To Guangdong.” Chen turned to Wu. “Where is your home village?” he said in Mandarin.
“I met Ambassador Liu the other day,” said Olsen. “We had a very good talk.”
Chen gazed at Wu for a moment longer, then looked back at Olsen. “So I understand, Mr. Secretary.”
“The ambassador expressed his hope that I would soon meet Foreign Minister Chou.”
Chen nodded.
“I look forward to that as well.”
“Yes, Mr. Secretary.”
“Mr. Chen, I believe we’re still waiting for a proposal from your government.”
“Mr. Secretary, we are waiting for an indication from President Benton whether he will accept an invitation from President Wen.”
“As I told you last time, Mr. Chen, such an invitation would be warmly accepted at the right time.”
“Am I to deduce that this is not the right time?” inquired Chen.
“Yes, Mr. Chen. I think that’s a fair deduction. You can also deduce the time won’t be right until President Benton has seen your government’s proposal.”
Chen didn’t reply immediately. He glanced at Wu again. Oliver Wu was accustomed to those kinds of glances from Chinese officials, accusatory, hostile, as if to ask him what kind of a traitor he was to be working with the Americans, betraying his own people. None of them ever seemed to consider that he was a third-generation American, born in Sacramento where his father was a California state official, educated at Berkeley and Harvard, and that the citizens of the United States, not China, were his people.
“Mr. Secretary,” said Chen, “as I said last time, the last proposal made by President Gartner is still under consideration. President Wen has serious reservations about this proposal and its manifest unfairness towards the Chinese people, but perhaps there is some way in which we can continue to talk about this. If President Benton chooses to show his willingness to accept President Wen’s respectful invitation, I’m sure we will find a way to achieve this.”
Olsen was silent. He closed his eyes for a moment, then looked at Chen again. “All right, Mr. Chen, I’m going to explain one more time. You can tell your government to stop wasting its time with the Gartner proposal, because it is no longer on the table with the Benton administration.”
“But it’s a commitment from the United States government, Mr. Secretary. If the Chinese government cannot rely—”
“No, sir, it was not a commitment from the United States government. Let’s get that clear once and for all. If there’s any doubt, I have a copy right here. The Gartner proposal was an unofficial, time-limited framework— not even a proposal in the true sense, but a framework—that has lapsed. If the Chinese government wasn’t able to respond in a timely fashion, so be it.”