diplomatic staff in a tit-for-tat exchange. But that wasn’t enough. The man in the Oval Office would want more.
Forrester rubbed his chin.
“Do we have any official visits scheduled in the next few months?” Canceling an already stated trip was one way to slap another government in the face for perceived wrongs. It wasn’t the most direct way to retaliate, but at least it usually didn’t add to the budget deficit or cost additional taxpayer dollars.
One of Hurley’s aides shook his head after consulting a briefing book.
“I’m afraid not, Mr. Vice President. No official contacts. Several requests for low-level visits. We’ve been denying those as per standard policy.”
Hurley leaned forward.
“What about supporting deeper sanctions? Congress is starting to make noises in that direction. ”
Forrester held up a hand.
“That’s a ‘no go’ from word one, Ed. The
President’s firm on that. Further economic sanctions wouldn’t work. They’d only hurt some of the people we’re trying to help. He’s convinced we should put our efforts elsewhere. There’s got to be some other leverage we can use against South Africa. ”
Hurley looked doubtful.
“I can’t see anything, at least not right off the bat. We don’t have any close allies in the region-no strong ties to any other country, in fact. Certainly nobody the Afrikaners would listen to.
There aren’t any large communities of U.S. citizens down there, and our corporations have slowly been divesting themselves-more from their own concern over Pretoria’s instability than from any political pressure here at home.”
The little man shrugged.
“So on a day-to-day basis, the South Africans have little to do with us, and we have little to do with them. I just don’t see what the new pressure points are. I I
An assistant secretary from the Commerce Department spoke up. Forrester couldn’t even remember the man’s name.
“What about this idea that Senator
Travers pushed last night on TV? What about funneling additional aid to the front line states?”
“Pure grandstanding!” Nicholson snorted. The
CIA
director and Travers had locked horns on foreign policy more than once in the past.
“I’ve seen the dossiers of most of the leaders of those countries. My God, I doubt if more than one cent on the dollar would ever make it past their Swiss bank accounts. ”
Forrester held his tongue. He shared Nicholson’s assessment of the practical value of Travers’s proposed foreign aid package. But he’d learned long ago not to underestimate the Nevada senator’s ability to read the domestic political scene. And he knew the President had learned the same lesson. Travers’s proposal was being given serious consideration by the nation’s chief executive. It was grotesque, but given the way
Washington sometimes worked, three or four hundred million wasted dollars might be viewed as a cheap price for blunting a political rival’s initiative.
The Vice President mentally shrugged. So be it. 1bat was a call the
President would have to make. He turned back to the debate still raging around the conference table.
Obviously impatient with all the hemming and hawing around the table, a lean-faced man wearing the stars and uniform of a U.S. Army lieutenant general sat forward.
“Yes, General?”
Gen. Roland Atkinson, the Joint Chiefs’ representative, pointed a long, bony finger straight at Hurley.
“Look, Ed, what’s your best guess about where that damned place is heading? I mean… hell, is this Vorster character going to be around long enough for us to really worry about?”
Forrester nodded to himself. The general had a good point.
Hurley looked somber.
“I’m afraid things are going to get a lot worse.
South Africa was just starting to build up some goodwill abroad as reforms were made. This reversal is going to cost them. Remember what happened when China changed horses?”
Heads nodded gingerly. Tiananmen Square was still a sore point for the administration.
“Unfortunately, we don’t know just what Vorster has planned. He’s
certainly surprised us with this complete revers al of previous government policy. ” Hurley shook his head.
“It’s hard to predict the effects when you don’t even know what the causes will be.”
Forrester tried to pin him down.
“C’mon, Ed. We’ve seen what Vorster is like. We’ve seen those police sweeps. And now they’re bringing the Army into it. I think his ultimate aims are pretty clear. He seems damned determined to bring back the ‘good old days’ of total apartheid. Assume that’s what he’s after… what happens then?”
Nicholson spoke up. The
CIA
director looked faintly ill.
“Massive instability, Mr. Vice President. Despite PretorWs ban and bloody crackdown, our intelligence sources confirm that the
ANC
and other opposition groups are rapidly growing in strength and organization. Their guerrilla organization is rebuilt and is now attracting a lot of new recruits. Vorster’s pushed a lot of more moderate blacks into the arms of anybody with guns and the guts to use them.”
He stopped talking and turned toward Hurley.
The assistant secretary of state was quiet for a moment longer, obviously evaluating his response.
“Director Nicholson is right. We can expect to see many more deaths, mostly black, as the violence mounts. ” He took a deep breath.
“Then, at some point, a general revolt. The black population decides they’ve got nothing to lose and just starts a civil war. Forget a ‘people power’ revolt like the Philippines. This would be very bloody.
And there’s no guarantee the blacks could win. The whites have tremendous advantages-both organizationally and militarily.”
Forrester nodded somberly. He’d seen the reports on South Africa’s
Defense Force. At full mobilization, it could put three hundred thousand men in the field-well-trained troops equipped with thousands of armored cars, highly sophisticated field artillery, close-support aircraft, and grim determination.
Hurley sighed.
“This wouldn’t be an organized revolution like Romania, with a single, powerful resistance group. The
ANC
, the Zulu Inkatha party, and the Pan-Africanist Congress would all be fighting each other as well as the whites.
We’d probably end up with something like Beirut, but spread all over the southern tip of Africa-not just confined to a single city. ”
The Commerce Department representative looked appalled.
“Jesus, if that happens, gold prices would go through the roof. That would crucify the value of the dollar. ” He stared down at the table.
“Our balance of payments is bad enough now. It could get really bad.”
The others around the table knew exactly what he meant. Higher unemployment, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and the very real risk of a global trade war that could spark a new Great Depression.
Forrester glanced at Nicholson.
“What about strategic minerals?”
The
CIA
director arched an eyebrow.
“Spot shortages, of course. Maybe something worse, depending on how the other suppliers like the Soviet Union react.”
Forrester asked Hurley, “One final question. How long before the lid comes off?”
Ed Hurley looked worried, a little like a caged animal.
“There are so many unknowns, sir. I wouldn’t even begin
The Vicc President spoke reassuringly.
“C’mon, Ed, nobody’s going to write it down. Can you at least put limits on it?”
“It might be years, sir. The black population of South Africa existed for years under apartheid without revolting. They will need some intolerable situation to push them over the edge. With a loose cannon like Vorster, that might happen tomorrow. Other than those general thoughts, I really can’t say. 11
Forrester shook his head wearily and looked around the table.
“All right.
We’re all agreed that open civil war in South Africa would be a disaster for the United States and for all our major allies. It would drive up prices of strategic minerals and other critical items. The cost of everything using them would go up-and that’s about everything that’s made in this country. Aside from those costs, the price of gold
rising sharply could trigger panics and buying sprees. A civil war in
South Africa could bring on a massive depression here in the U.S.” maybe worldwide.
“It’s a long-term threat, but with Vorster in charge, it’s a very probable outcome. Now the question is, just what do we recommend to the
President?”
“Increase our stockpiles of strategic minerals.” General Atkinson seemed certain.
“Hell, we can’t do much to influence what goes on inside that crazy country. I’d say we’d better start preparing for the worst.”
Forrester nodded his agreement.
“We’ll need a list of those minerals unique to South Africa.”
Hurley shook his head.
“I’m sorry, Mr. Vice President, but we’ll need to put any major commodity South Africa produces on that list. If things fall apart over there, prices on all of them will skyrocket.”
That made sense. Anything that closed down South Africa’s mines would send panic buyers around the world scurrying for whatever resources were left.
Forrester scribbled a quick note to himself and then glanced down the table at General Atkinson.
“All right, General. If the balloon does go up in Pretoria, do we have any military plans for that area? What if the
President volunteers to move UN peacekeeping forces into the region? Can we lift them?”
Atkinson seemed at a loss.
“Sir, I don’t think we have any plans for operations down there. It’s a long way from home. ”
“It’s a long way from anywhere,” Forrester agreed.
“But let’s start looking at the possibilities. How many troops could we pick up from some third country and move to South Africa without affecting our other strategic commitments? What if we have to evacuate our embassy or all the foreign nationals down there? How about sending a hospital ship with a naval escort?”
He saw the surprised looks on several of the faces around the table.
“Look, gentlemen. This is all extremely speculative. But I am suggesting that we start exploring our options-all our options.”
He scowled.
“I, for one, am sick and tired of being blind-3
sided by world events. So if things go from bad to worse in Pretoria, I want the data we’d need to make smart decisions on hand. Not sitting in some goddamned filing cabinet, five years out of date. Clear?”
Heads nodded meekly. Good. Maybe it paid to throw a mini-temper tantrum every once in a while.
Forrester turned to General Atkinson.
“Okay, Roland. Have your planners put something together and keep it in your back pocket. If things turn ugly, we need to be seen making some positive moves down there.”
Atkinson made a note to himself.
“One thing more, ladies and gentlemen. ” Forrester looked sternly at the other men and women seated around the table.
“The fact that I’ve asked the general to draw up plans for hypothetical contingencies-he stressed the word—hypothetical contingencies in South Africa is something that doesn’t leave this room. No press leaks. No heads-up warnings for your favorite congressmen or senators. Nothing. We don’t need a public firestorm over what may turn out to be nothing more than a nasty internal dispute. ”
Both Nicholson and Hurley looked relieved.
The
CIA
director leaned forward.
“Yes, Chris?”
“Just one thing more, Mr. Vice President. I’ve got MY people working on a continuing assessment of Vorster’s government: biographies, possible courses of actions, and so on. Something to give our analysts more hard data to sink their teeth into. ” Nicholson frowned.
“But with half the old leadership wiped out, and with things changing so fast, it’s taking longer to produce the material than I’d like. I’d appreciate any help the other agencies and departments could give my people. I I
Forrester looked meaningfully at Hurley.
“I’m sure that any of the other intelligence agencies with South Africa files will be more than happy to cooperate. Right, Ed?”
Hurley nodded ruefully, acknowledging the Vice President’s unspoken criticism. From time to time, the State Department’s Bureau of
Intelligence and Research exhibited an unfortunate tendency to regard the
CIA
and the other intelligence agencies as overpaid and not overly bright errand boys. As a result, real interdepartmental cooperation often seemed more difficult to obtain than a ratifiable U.S.-Soviet strategic arms control treaty.
Satisfied that his message had gotten across and conscious of his next scheduled meeting, Forrester tapped the table.
“All right, let’s sum things up. As I see it, we recommend going tit for tat on the diplomatic front as a first step. Any objections to that?”
He looked slowly around the table. One by one, those present shook their heads. Staff reductions and strong notes were the small change in any diplomatic confrontation.
“Okay. I’ll pass that on to the President this afternoon.” Forrester shuffled his notepaper into a neat pile.
“In the meantime, we’ll put our staffs to work on more substantive responses. Up to and including expanded strategic minerals stockpiling and some low-key contingency plans for moving a UN peacekeeping force into the region should all hell break loose.
And we’ll recommend a heightened intelligence-gathering effort for the area. More satellite passes and more
SIGINT
work. That sort of stuff. Maybe we can get a better read on just what this Vorster character has in mind.
Comments?”
More silence from around the table. Forrester’s summary of their recommendations was on target. I-eft unspoken was the feeling that they’d once again labored mightily to produce more of what Washington was famous for: empty hot air.
As the
NSC
meeting broke up, Hurley leaned close to Forrester.
“Patience isn’t Vorster’s strong suit, Mr. Vice President. I don’t think we’ll have to wait long to see what he’s up to.”