Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk

THE REMARKABLE STORY OF RISK

PETER L. BERNSTEIN

For

Peter Brodsky

Acknowledgments
ix

Introduction
1

TO 1200: BEGINNINGS

1. The Winds of the Greeks and the Role of the Dice
11

2. As Easy as I, II, III
23

1200-1700: A THOUSAND OUTSTANDING FACTS

3. The Renaissance Gambler
39

4. The French Connection
57

5. The Remarkable Notions of the Remarkable Notions Man
73

1700-1900: MEASUREMENT UNLIMITED

6. Considering the Nature of Man
99

7. The Search for Moral Certainty
116

8. The Supreme Law of Unreason
135

9. The Man with the Sprained Brain
152

10. Peapods and Perils
172

11. The Fabric of Felicity
187

1900-1960: CLOUDS OF VAGUENESS AND THE DEMAND FOR PRECISION

12. The Measure of Our Ignorance
197

13. The Radically Distinct Notion
215

14. The Man Who Counted Everything Except Calories
231

15. The Strange Case of the Anonymous Stockbroker
247

DEGREES OF BELIEF: EXPLORING UNCERTAINTY

16. The Failure of Invariance
269