Black Mass: How Religion Led the World into Crisis (30 page)

The risk of proliferation has been accelerated by American policies. North Korea acquired nuclear capability as a result of a transfer of know-how from Pakistan – a country whose role in the ‘war on terror’ insulated it from effective pressure to stop leakage of this kind. The risks have been increased by the Bush administration pulling out of arms control agreements and by a change in US nuclear doctrine
that allows the pre-emptive use of nuclear weapons against countries believed to have WMD programmes.
⁴⁴
Above all, after Iraq everyone knows that the only way to be safe against American attack is to possess the WMD capability Saddam lacked. According to an announcement by the International Atomic Energy Agency in November 2006, six Islamic countries have indicated they wish to acquire nuclear technology. All of them – Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey – insist they want it for peaceful purposes, but a nuclear arms race may already have begun. Other countries that may be interested include Nigeria and Jordan. It is not beyond the realm of realistic possibility that the state of Iraq – if it still exists – might at some time in the future acquire a nuclear capability of the kind pre-emptive military action by the US was meant to prevent.

There seem to be some in the US who see an attack on Iran as a means of deterring proliferation, but, as in the case of Iraq, the effect would be to increase it. A large swathe of the Middle East and Asia, which at present contains three theatres of war – in Iraq, Palestine and Afghanistan – would become a zone of armed conflict,
⁴⁵
while the lesson of Iraq – that the only way to be safe from American attack is to possess nuclear weapons – would be reinforced. At the same time an attack could well fail to halt Iran’s nuclear programme. Though it is ethnically diverse, Iran is unlike most other countries in the region in being a fairly cohesive state. The home of an ancient and rich Persian civilization, it currently practises a type of democracy – in effect a more stable version of the system that is developing in Iraq – that gives its present leadership a degree of legitimacy. An American air assault could increase the legitimacy of this leadership, which has already gained in popularity from the nuclear programme. Even if a more liberal version of democracy were to develop, there is no guarantee that Iran would renounce nuclear ambitions. Worse, a bombing campaign could fail to destroy the nuclear programme while weakening the country’s government to the point where it would no longer be able to control whatever nuclear facilities actually exist in the country. Worse still, an American attack could trigger upheaval in many Islamic states, including Pakistan – which is already a nuclear power and could easily become another failed state.

From a standpoint of global security few things are more important than preventing the leakage of nuclear technology beyond the control of states. Mutual assured destruction (MAD) forestalled the use of nuclear weapons for over half a century. Deterrence of this kind may not give complete security against a nuclear state headed by an apocalyptic prophet; but since some among its leadership will want to go on living, it affords some protection. When the enemy is an elusive network whose branches can be based anywhere in the world deterrence breaks down completely. Agents of mass destruction cannot be threatened with annihilation if their identity is unknown. The American arms control analyst Fred Ikle has written, ‘Military history offers no lessons that tell nations how to cope with a continuing global dispersion of cataclysmic means for destruction.’
⁴⁶
A crucial part of the task is preventing state collapse. States have failed throughout history – we need only think of the centuries of anarchy that followed the fall of the Roman Empire or the era of Warring States in ancient China. It will not always be possible to prevent states failing in future. To encourage that failure is folly – especially at a time when the development of technology makes anarchy more threatening than ever before. Yet that is what overthrowing governments while lacking the ability to put anything in their place means in practice.

The ‘war on terror’ is a symptom of a mentality that anticipates an unprecedented change in human affairs – the end of history, the passing of the sovereign state, universal acceptance of democracy and the defeat of evil. This is the central myth of apocalyptic religion framed in political terms, and the common factor underlying the failed utopian projects of the past decade. The promise of an imminent transformation was not a cynical ploy attached to policies adopted on other grounds by leaders who did not themselves believe in it. Bush and Blair genuinely believed such a change was impending or could be brought about, as did the neo-conservatives and liberal interventionists who supported them in Iraq. Apocalypse failed to arrive, and history went on as before but with an added dash of blood.

The faith in Utopia, which killed so many in the centuries following the French Revolution, is dead. Like other faiths it may be resurrected in circumstances that cannot be foreseen; but it is unlikely to trouble us much further in the next few decades. The cycle in which world politics was dominated by secular versions of apocalyptic myth has come to an end, and, in an historic reversal, old-time religion has re-emerged at the heart of global conflict.

Iraq was the first utopian experiment of the new century and may be the last. Unending carnage in the country continues to be described in the secular language of the post-Enlightenment era, with western countries talking of defending human rights and Islamists using many of the ideas of western radical thought. Yet it has ceased to be a contest in which secular ideologies are at stake and has become instead a many-sided war of religion entwined with an ongoing resource war.

The political ideologies of the last two hundred years were vehicles for a myth of salvation in history that is Christianity’s most dubious gift to humanity. The faith-based violence to which this myth gave rise is a congenital western disorder. The early Christian belief in an End-Time that would bring about a new type of human life was transmitted via the medieval millenarians to become secular utopianism and, in another incarnation, the belief in progress. The age of utopias ended in Fallujah, a city razed by rival fundamentalists. The
secular era is not in the future, as liberal humanists believe. It is in the past, which we have yet to understand.

The modern world began with wars of religion. During the Thirty Years War, Europe was devastated by armed struggle between Catholics and Protestants, with around a third of the population in parts of Germany perishing as a result. Much of early modern thought is a response to these conflicts. The need to restrain the violence of faith is central in the writings of Thomas Hobbes and Benedict Spinoza –early Enlightenment thinkers who speak to us about the nature of present conflicts more clearly than most of those who came later.

The central theme of Hobbes’s thought is the condition of humanity in a state of nature, where government is lacking. As he put it in the famous thirteenth chapter of
Leviathan
, a state of nature lacks ‘commodious living’ – there are ‘no arts; no letters; no society; and which is worst of all, continual fear, and danger of violent death’. Without the power of government, humans are compelled to engage in a ‘war of all against all’ in which each is the enemy of every other. Hobbes’s insight into the realities of life when government breaks down is unflinching. It is his account of how humanity might escape this condition that is far-fetched. Hobbes was much concerned with taming fanaticism, which he recognized as the deadly enemy of civilization, but he hated fanatical belief too much to understand it and so failed to uncover its roots in the need for meaning. While he recognized the power of the passions, he believed reason could enable humanity to escape the state of nature – not for ever, but at least for a time. Believing he had fathomed the causes of human conflict,
Hobbes imagined that if his writings fell into the hands of an intelligent ruler a new form of government could be established that was concerned only to maintain peace. By obeying such a government, humanity could be delivered from its natural condition. Though he is seen as an ultra-realist, Hobbes actually looked to politics for a kind of salvation.

Hobbes’s understanding of the dangers of anarchy resonates powerfully today. Liberal thinkers still see the unchecked power of the state as the chief danger to human freedom. Hobbes knew better: freedom’s worst enemy is anarchy, which is at its most destructive when it is a battleground of rival faiths. The sectarian death squads roaming Baghdad show that fundamentalism is itself a type of anarchy in which each prophet claims divine authority to rule. In well-governed societies, the power of faith is curbed. The state and the churches temper the claims of revelation and enforce peace. Where this kind is impossible, tyranny is better than being ruled by warring prophets. Hobbes is a more reliable guide to the present than the liberal thinkers who followed. Yet his view of human beings was too simple, and overly rationalistic. Assuming that humans dread violent death more than anything, he left out the most intractable sources of conflict. It is not always because human beings act irrationally that they fail to achieve peace. Sometimes it is because they do not want peace. They may want the victory of the One True Faith – whether a traditional religion or a secular successor such as communism, democracy or universal human rights. Or – like the young people who joined far-Left terrorist groups in the 1970s, another generation of which is now joining Islamist networks – they may find in war a purpose that is lacking in peace. Nothing is more human than the readiness to kill and die in order to secure a meaning in life.

A deeper understanding of the disorders of faith can be found in the thought of Benedict Spinoza.
³
Like Hobbbes, Spinoza knew that religion can be destructive, and he was clear that freedom to practise it must yield to the needs of peace; but he understood, better than Hobbes, the role of religion in human life. Religions are not literally true, as their followers believe. They are myths that preserve in symbolic or metaphorical form truths that might otherwise be lost, and the mass of humankind will never be able to do without them. The
term myth comes from the Greek word
mythos
, which means story, and the dominant western myths have been narratives in which history becomes a story of sin and redemption. Spinoza is rare among western thinkers in rejecting any such view of salvation as an historical event. Despite the fact that he seems to have been an atheist for most of his life, Hobbes never questioned the Christian belief that humans can transcend their natural condition. Indeed, this belief underpins his faith in government. In contrast, though he was attracted to a mystical version of rationalism, Spinoza understood that humans are an integral part of the natural world, and so he never turned to the state for salvation. Anarchy could be overcome as evolving patterns of social cooperation crystallized into civil institutions; but the order in society that resulted would regularly break down, and when this happened no social contract could restore order. Spinoza had a vision of salvation – a neo-Stoic ideal in which a few individuals could understand and accept their place in the scheme of things – but it had nothing to do with politics. While it is much preferable to anarchy, government cannot abolish the evils of the human condition. At any time the state is only one of the forces that shape human behaviour, and its power is never absolute. At present, fundamentalist religion and organized crime, ethnic-national allegiances and market forces all have the ability to elude the control of government, sometimes to overthrow or capture it. States are at the mercy of events as much as any other human institution, and over the longer course of history all of them fail. As Spinoza recognized, there is no reason to think the cycle of order and anarchy will ever end.
⁴

Secular thinkers find this view of human affairs dispiriting, and most have retreated to some version of the Christian view in which history is a narrative of redemption. The most common of these narratives are theories of progress, in which the growth of knowledge enables humanity to advance and improve its condition. Actually, humanity cannot advance or retreat, for humanity cannot act: there is no collective entity with intentions or purposes, only ephemeral struggling animals each with its own passions and illusions. The growth of scientific knowledge cannot alter this fact. Believers in progress – whether social democrats or neo-conservatives, Marxists, anarchists or technocratic Positivists – think of ethics and politics as
being like science, with each step forward enabling further advances in future. Improvement in society is cumulative, they believe, so that the elimination of one evil can be followed by the removal of others in an open-ended process. But human affairs show no sign of being additive in this way: what is gained can always be lost, sometimes –as with the return of torture as an accepted technique in war and government – in the blink of an eye. Human knowledge tends to increase, but humans do not become any more civilized as a result. They remain prone to every kind of barbarism, and while the growth of knowledge allows them to improve their material conditions, it also increases the savagery of their conflicts.