Devil's Fork (11 page)

“
How do you keep so calm
about it?”

“
It’s really just
conditioning.”

“
You mean like fitness?
Like strength and conditioning?”

“
No, like operant
conditioning. Or classical conditioning.”

“
So you’re like one of
Pavlov’s dog’s?” Jiyeon said with a half-laugh, “Is that
it?”

Jiyeon is smart, Tom
thought. He had studied Ivan Pavlov in a psychology course in
college. But he had really understood Pavlov only when joining the
SEAL teams. Ivan Pavlov was a Russian scientist who lived from the
mid 1800’s to the mid 1900’s. He conducted a famous experiment with
dogs in the early 20
^th
century. He would serve the dogs their meal and at
the same time ring a bell. As the meal was being presented to the
dogs, they would start to salivate in anticipation of the food.
After several repetitions, the dogs learned that when they heard
the bell, it meant that food was about to be served. Eventually,
just ringing the bell, without showing them any food, caused the
dogs to salivate. The dogs had been classically conditioned.
Operant conditioning was similar except that it was a behavior that
was being conditioned, not a bodily response.

“
In a way, yes,” Tom
responded, “A lot of our behaviors can be explained by Pavlov’s
dogs. Not everything we do – we are rational human beings after all
– but a lot of our biases, likes, dislikes, and attitudes can be
explained by classical conditioning and operant conditioning. And
the SEALs take that and use it.”

“
How? How do you do
it?”

“
Well, in training, anytime
someone loses at something – whether it is a boat race or a beach
run, he is punished with a painful number of pushups or some other
physical activity”

“
But not everyone can win –
only one person or group can win a race.”

“
That’s true, but that’s
exactly the thing. The point is not to make you a fast boat racer.
The point is to condition you that failure at something will lead
to a lot of pain. I watched one boat crew do 200 pushups once after
placing fourth in a boat race. Those guys never came in that far
behind again. The instructors were conditioning that group’s
behavior, their attitude to win.”

“
Oh God”

“
But they condition you
with rewards too. If a team works hard in the exercises and wins
boat races, the instructors give the team a break and praise them.
And they condition several things with positive and negative
reinforcement, not just winning. They condition into each SEAL a
teamwork mentality, a ‘can-do’ attitude, and self-confidence. So
after the training, you have a group of people left who simply will
do anything to accomplish a task. For them it feels wrong to think
something can’t be done. That’s operant conditioning at
work.”

“
And so you think this
applies to everyday life?”

Tom took a sip of his drink. He was having
Four Roses bourbon, neat.

“
More than that,” he
answered “I think it has an impact on world events more than people
think.”

“
That’s because of the
biases and dislikes you were saying right?”

“
Well you guys deal with it
every day. When I imagine the people in North Korea, from birth
they have been told that everything bad that has happened to them
is because of the United States. The people there are starving, and
they’re told it’s because of an American blockade. People there are
dying from disease at a higher rate than most other places because
of a lack of medicines or medical knowhow. Their families are told
it’s because of the US. As kids they are told that Americans came
and tortured babies during the war. So from a young age, people
have all of these strong negative emotions – fear, anger, disgust
and are conditioned to associate that with America. It’s no wonder
when you see them on TV why they look so hateful. They have been
classically conditioned.”

“
That’s funny you say that.
What our illegals have been reporting is that despite the
propaganda, many people there are at least somewhat disillusioned
with their government, but they still have a very real dislike for
the US.”

“
It sounds like one very
confused country,” Tom said as Jiyeon giggled. Tom continued,
“seriously though, where it gets interesting is when you think
about how many other countries don’t overtly teach this to kids,
but still create the conditioning effect. Just from a general
attitude in the country.”

Jiyeon thought for a second “Yes, it must be
a key driver of behavior.”

Tom served the meat, which was about ready
in the middle of the table. He took a bite into the spicy pork.

“
Did you guys figure out
how 1414 was compromised?”

Jiyeon shook her head, “No it’s still
unclear. But something strange is going on.”

“
Why do you say
that?”

Jiyeon leaned in and spoke quietly “Mr. Park
called Mr. Lee today and told us another illegal had been
compromised but that he had escaped and was making his way
back.”

“
That was missing from my
briefing today,” Tom said with a smirk.

“
That’s why he had to go
back to the office before me. He had to take Mr. Park’s call on
short notice.”

Tom chewed the spicy chicken as he thought.
He took another sip of bourbon. “How many officers are you guys
pulling out?”

“
For now just this one.
Officer 6237. He was based in Pyongyang. I’m not supposed to give
any more details on him.”

“
Your group manages over
six thousand deep cover officers in North Korea?” That was an
absurd number of deep cover officers to have in any country Tom
thought. Tom had heard that at the height of the Cold War, the
Soviets had less than five illegals working in the US. Most of
their spies had official cover – they worked at the embassy or
trade missions in various made-up roles. He figured the US probably
had the same number.

“
No,” she smiled “The
numbers are not assigned that way. It’s a different system we
have.”

“
Oh?”

Jiyeon tasted her drink, smiling through the
edge of the glass. “You can figure it out. Let me know when you
do.” She seemed to like playing the game of keeping something just
out of Tom’s reach. She looked like she expected him to come around
the table and shake it out of her. But Tom just thought he would
figure it out later.

“
So is that why Mr. Park is
in DC with that team?” Tom asked.

“
I don’t know exactly why
he’s there. He told us about 6237 because he wanted us to help him
get back. But he did not say anything else. I’m not sure what’s
going on.”

“
Is there anything you can
think of that 1414 and 6237 had in common? Did they have any of the
same contacts? Did they ever meet?”

“
Other than that they were
both based in Pyongyang, no. They did not even know each other.
They had two separate missions. Nothing in common. In fact 6237
sent us a message last week saying that his mission was on
track.”

“
Maybe the messaging system
has been hacked?”

“
Maybe. But other illegals
have sent us messages even today and yesterday. They have not been
compromised yet. Like 2135 – the one who saw the strange men at the
port.”

“
Where is 6237
now?”

“
He’s sneaking his way
through the countryside. He’s going to China.”

“
So what do you really
think is in that base?” Tom asked in an oddly uncurious
way.

“
I’ve been trying to think
about that. I don’t know. I can’t figure it out. I wish 1414 had
been more specific.”

“
He seemed to be trying to
be extra vague.”

“
I just don’t know what is
scarier—that it was this hard to find this place or that we have no
clue what’s inside. What do you think?”

“
I’m holding judgment until
I get inside.”

They continued eating. They were almost
finished. Tom looked around the restaurant. It was a typical night
scene. Darkness was punctuated with dimly lit candles. Servers were
walking to and from the kitchen at fast speeds. Men were dressed in
suits and were trying to look in control. Women were in skirts and
were trying to laugh enough to appear cute. Tom noticed a lot of
eyes on him. He had seen it before - even in cosmopolitan cities
like Seoul. He stood out. He was a westerner who looked like he was
built of stone. The attention did not bother him at all. Jiyeon
appeared to not take her eyes off him and was engrossed in their
conversation. She almost welcomed the eyes watching.

“
What’s your favorite thing
to do on weekends?” Tom asked.

“
I’m not sure,” Jiyeon
smiled as she thought about it, “What do you like to
do?”

Tom thought about it. “I’ll tell you one
thing I like. I wake up very early- before everyone – like 5 or 6
in the morning. I like to take a walk to the Potomac and see the
early morning sun.”

“
I know what you mean,”
Jiyeon said, her eyes aimed upwards as if she were dreaming about
it.

“
But it’s not the sunrise I
try to see. It’s the early sun. The sun is the most gentle at that
time, right after it’s risen, and before it’s moved too high. The
city is sleeping and in fact it feels like the world is sleeping.
But the early sun makes you question whether the darkness of the
night was present at all. It cleanses the world before us and gives
the new day a fresh start. I like to just stand by the Potomac and
take that in. Especially when I just get back.”

“
I know exactly what you
mean.” Jiyeon leaned in.

When they were done, they made sure to
bottoms-up the remainder of their drinks. They got up and started
walking to the exit. On the way, as they were passing the bar,
Jiyeon recognized a girl she knew. They hugged and talked excitedly
for a half-minute. Then the girl saw Tom and became silent as she
eyed him. Jiyeon introduced them – the girl’s name was Hyun-Joo.
She was with a young man who stood solemnly and did not seem to be
in the mood to talk. He was staring at Jiyeon with cold eyes. Tom
was a head taller than him and twice as thick, so maybe he felt
uncomfortable, Tom thought. As they exchanged pleasantries, Tom saw
Jiyeon step closer to his side, so he put his arm around her
waist.

A few moments later they were walking on the
street. Tom saw that Jiyeon was walking close beside him. He put
his arm around her. He felt her nestle into him.

“
Can we get another drink
somewhere else?” she asked.

“
Sure.”

“
By the way, there’s
something funny I have to tell you about those two we just
met.”

CHAPTER 13

TUESDAY

Wuhan, China

NATPAC sat uncomfortably in his office
chair. The night further darkened his office with each passing
minute. He wanted to go home after a long day. He put out his
cigarette in the ashtray on his desk and shut down his
computer.

His mind thought in decision trees. It was a
simple tool used in economics to plan future decisions. It was
helpful if someone wanted to see where a series of decisions would
lead. It required one to imagine all of the situations resulting
from an initial decision. Then for each new situation, one imagines
the consequence of another decision. Each situation was typically
assigned a probability. The technique was known as a tree because
it allowed someone to visualize decisions and consequences similar
to branches of a tree.

NATPAC remembered being taught decision
trees by imagining how to spend an afternoon: “I can either go to
the park or to a café. If I go to the park there is a 30% chance it
will rain and a 70% chance it will not. If I go to the park and it
rains I will have to run home. But if I go to the park and it does
not rain I will be able to sit outside and read.” This was how he
was used to thinking. This technique allowed decision-making to be
quantitative and precise. Thinking in decision trees helped NATPAC
map out all of the possibilities. People who were not quantitative
thinkers, like those in one region of the world NATPAC knew, very
often ended up making mistakes in their decisions simply because of
not mapping it out. NATPAC had no problem visualizing trees
multiple nodes deep: