The Dispensable Nation: American Foreign Policy in Retreat (42 page)

  
1.
Strobe Talbott first referred to Holbrooke as the “unquiet American” in an obituary: “Remembering Richard Holbrooke,”
Washington Post
,
December 15, 2010,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/14/AR2010121406366.html
. Later a biography of Holbrooke carried the same title: Derek Chollet and Samantha Power, eds.,
The Unquiet American: Richard Holbrooke in the World
(New York: Public Affairs, 2011).

  
2.
Mark Landler, “Afghan Shift Puts Top U.S. Civilians in Tricky Spot,”
New York Times
, July 1, 2010, p. A14.

  
3.
Author interview with Mark Landler, August 2010.

  
4.
Rajiv Chandrasekaran,
Little America: The War Within the War for Afghanistan
(New York: Knopf, 2012), p. 230.

  
5.
Les Gelb, “Richard Holbrooke’s Lonely Mission,”
Daily Beast
, January 16, 2011,
www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/01/16/richard-holbrooke-s-lonely-mission.html
.

  
6.
Cited in William H. Luers and Thomas R. Pickering, “Envisioning a Deal with Iran,”
New York Times
, February 2, 2012,
www.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/opinion/envisioning-a-deal-with-iran.html?_r=1&ref=opinion
.

  
7.
Matthew Rosenberg, “When Afghans Look to the Border with Pakistan, They Don’t See a Fixed Line,”
New York Times
, October 29, 2012, p. A9.

  
8.
Robert D. Hormats, remarks at conference titled “The United States’ ‘New Silk Road’ Strategy: What Is It? Where Is It Headed?” September 29, 2011, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, available at
www.state.gOv/e/rls/rmk/2011/174800.htm
.

  
9.
Obama even discussed the idea with journalists in August 2010. David Ignatius, “The U.S. Should Test Iran’s Resolve to Stabilize Afghanistan,”
Washington Post
, September 17, 2010,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/16/AR2010091606067.html
.

10.
Christoph Reuter, Gregor Peter Schmitz, and Holger Stark, “How German Diplomats Opened Channel to Taliban,”
Der Spiegel
, January 10, 2012,
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,808068,00.html
.

11.
Ahmed Rashid,
Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of America, Pakistan, and Afghanistan
(New York: Viking, 2012), pp. 113–36.

12.
Rod Norland and Alissa Rubin, “Taliban Captives Dispute U.S. View on Afghanistan War,”
New York Times
, February 2, 2012, p. A1.

13.
Later in 2010, Aisha, whose ears had been sliced off as well, received reconstructive surgery from plastic surgeons in Los Angeles. See
http://www.theage.com.au/world/doctors-rebuild-face-and-future-of-afghan-child-bride-20101014-16lt2.html
.

14.
By this time there were a number of serious studies of how to carry out reconciliation talks, and some had influence on debates inside the White House. Lakhdar Brahimi and Thomas C. Pickering,
Afghanistan:
Negotiating Peace
(New York: Century Foundation, 2011); James Shinn and James Dobbins,
Afghan Peace Talks: A Primer
(Washington, DC: RAND Corporation, 2011).

  
1.
Vali Nasr, “No More Bullying Pakistan,”
Bloomberg View
, July 5, 2012,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-05/u-s-apology-ends-doomed-policy-of-bullying-pakistan-vali-nasr.html
.

  
2.
Admiral Mullen’s comments are quoted in Stephen Krasner, “Talking Tough to Pakistan,”
Foreign Affairs
, January/February 2012, pp. 87–96.

  
3.
Jeffrey Goldberg and Marc Ambinder, “The Ally from Hell,”
Atlantic
, December 2011,
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/12/the-ally-from-hell/8730/
.

  
4.
Bruce Riedel, “A New Pakistan Policy: Containment,”
New York Times
, October 14, 2011, p. A19; Zalmay Khalilzad, “A Strategy of ‘Congagement’ Toward Pakistan,”
Washington Quarterly
35, no. 2 (Winter 2012): 107–19. See also, Gerald Stang, “US Strategic Interests in South Asia: What Not to Do with Pakistan,”
European Union Institute for Security Studies
, June 25, 2012,
http://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/detail/article/us-strategic-interests-in-south-asia-what-not-to-do-with-pakistan/
.

  
5.
“U.S. Embassy Cables: ‘Reviewing Our Afghanistan-Pakistan Strategy,’ ”
Guardian
, November 30, 2010,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/226531
.

  
6.
See Matthew Teague, “Black Ops and Blood Money,”
Men’s Journal
, June 2011,
http://www.mensjournal.com/black-ops-and-blood-money
.

  
7.
Thorough accounts of this relationship can be found in Dennis Kux,
The United States and Pakistan
,
1947–2000: Disenchanted Allies
(Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001) and Teresita Schaffer and Howard Schaffer,
How Pakistan Negotiates with the United States: Riding the Roller Coaster
(Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace, 2011).

  
8.
Ahmed Rashid,
Descent into Chaos: The United States and the Failure of Nation Building in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia
(New York: Viking, 2008).

  
9.
Pervez Musharraf,
In the Line of Fire: A Memoir
(New York: Free Press, 2006), p. 201.

10.
Steve Coll, “Looking for Mulla Omar,”
New Yorker
, January 23, 2012, p. 52.

11.
Declan Walsh and Eric Schmitt, “Militant Group Poses Risk to U.S.-Pakistan Relations,”
New York Times
, July 31, 2012, p. A1.

12.
David Rohde and Kristen Mulvihill,
A Rope and a Prayer: A Kidnapping from Two Sides
(New York: Viking, 2010).

13.
Ahmed Rashid,
Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of America, Pakistan, and Afghanistan
(New York: Viking, 2012), p. 150.

14.
Goldberg and Ambinder, “The Ally from Hell.”

15.
Barnett R. Rubin and Ahmed Rashid, “From Great Game to Grand Bargain: Ending Chaos in Afghanistan and Pakistan,”
Foreign Affairs
, November/December 2008, pp. 30–44.

16.
The best account of the war and Pakistan’s role in it is Steve Coll,
Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and Bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001
(New York: Penguin Press, 2004).

17.
Bruce Riedel,
Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America and the Future of Global Jihad
(Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2011).

18.
Imtiaz Gul,
The Most Dangerous Place: Pakistan’s Lawless Frontier
(New York: Viking, 2010), pp. 112–29.

19.
Cited in Mohsin Hamid, “Why They Get Pakistan Wrong,”
New York Review of Books
, September 29, 2011,
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2011/sep/29/why-they-get-pakistan-wrong/?pagination=false
.

20.
Zahid Hussain, “Pakistan’s Most Dangerous Place,”
Wilson Quarterly
, Winter 2012,
http://www.wilsonquarterly.com/article.cfm?aid=2097
.

21.
William Safire, “Wide World of Words,”
New York Times
, April 26, 2009, p. MM16.

22.
Pir Zubair Shah, “My Drone War,”
Foreign Policy
, March/April 2012, pp. 58–62.

23.
Jane Mayer, “The Predator War,”
New Yorker
, October 26, 2009,
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/10/26/091026fa_fact_mayer
; David Sanger,
Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power
(New York: Crown, 2012), pp. 243–70.

24.
Krasner, “Talking Tough to Pakistan,” p. 87.

25.
Riedel, “New Pakistan Policy.”

26.
Seth Jones,
Hunting in the Shadows: The Pursuit of Al-Qaeda Since 9/11
(New York: Norton, 2012), pp. 417–32.

27.
Peter Bergen,
Manhunt: The Ten-Year Search for Bin Laden from 9/11 to Abbottabad
(New York: Crown, 2012).

28.
Sanger,
Confront and Conceal
, p. 10.

29.
Eric Schmitt, “Lull in Strikes by U.S. Drones Aids Militants in Pakistan,”
New York Times
, January 8, 2012, p. A1.

30.
Karen DeYoung and Karin Brulliard, “ ‘A New Normal’ for U.S., Pakistan,”
Washington Post
, January 17, 2012;
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/as-us-pakistani-relations-sink-nations-try-to-figure-out-a-new-normal/2012/01/13/gIQAklfw3P_story.html
.

  
1.
Gordon M. Goldstein,
Lessons in Disaster: McGeorge Bundy and the Path to War in Vietnam
(New York: Henry Holt, 2008), pp. 178 and 186.

  
2.
Ibid.

  
3.
George Stephanopoulos, “The Must Read Book for Obama’s War Team,” ABC News, September 22, 2009,
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2009/09/the-mustread-book-for-obamas-war-team/
.

  
4.
See Obama’s interview with Jeffrey Goldberg, “Obama to Iran and Israel: ‘As President of the United States, I Don’t Bluff,’ ”
Atlantic
, March 2, 2012,
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/03/obama-to-iran-and-israel-as-president-of-the-united-states-i-dont-bluff/253875/
.

  
5.
Goldstein,
Lessons in Disaster
, p. 184.

  
6.
Vali Nasr, “Obama Needs to Go the Whole Mile on Iran Diplomacy,”
Bloomberg View
, March 13, 2012,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-13/obama-need-to-go-whole-mile-on-iran-diplomacy-vali-nasr.html
.

  
7.
Michael R. Gordon and General Bernard E. Trainor,
The Endgame: The Inside Story of the Struggle for Iraq from George W. Bush to Barack Obama
(New York: Pantheon, 2012), pp. 312–28.

  
8.
Stephen Graubard, “Lunch with the FT: Henry Kissinger,”
Financial Times
, May 24, 2008,
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6d4b5fb8-285a-11dd-8f1e-000077b07658.html#axzz1pIrOuTFv
.

  
9.
James Dobbins,
After the Taliban: Nation Building in Afghanistan
(Washington, DC: Potomac Books, 2008).

10.
Barnett Rubin and Sara Batmanglich, “The U.S. and Iran in Afghanistan: A Policy Gone Awry,” MIT Center for International Studies, October 2008,
http://web.mit.edu/cis/editorspick_rubin08_audit.html
.

11.
Author interview with a former Iranian government official who was present at that meeting with Khamenei.

12.
Author interview with President Khatami, Davos, Switzerland, January 2007.

13.
Vali Nasr, “Who Wins in Iraq: Iran,”
Foreign Policy
, February 13, 2007,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2007/02/13/who_wins_in_iraq
.

14.
Bassem Mrou, “Talabani Says Iranians Ready for Talks With U.S. on Regional Security,”
Associated Press
, January 20, 2007,
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1665&dat=20070120&id=JZNPAAAAIBAJ&sjid=OCUEAAAAIBAJ&pg=3299,3780514
.

15.
Author interview with Iranian official, July 2007.

16.
Cited in “Khamenei Denies Nuclear Weapon,”
Iran Primer
, United States Institute for Peace, February 22, 2012,
http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2012/feb/22/part-i-khamenei-denies-nuclear-weapon
; Nick Cumming-Bruce, “Iran Calls Nuclear Arms Production a ‘Great Sin,’ ”
New York Times
, February 28, 2012,
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/29/world/middleeast/iran-calls-for-negotiations-on-treaty-banning-nuclear-weapons.html
.

17.
“In Heavy Waters: Iran’s Nuclear Program, the Risk of War and Lessons from Turkey,” Middle East and Europe Report no. 116, International Crisis Group, February 23, 2012, p. 2,
http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Iran/116—in-heavy-waters-irans-nuclear-program-the-risk-of-war-and-lessons-from-turkey.pdf
.

18.
Mohsen Milani, “Tehran’s Take,”
Foreign Affairs
, July/August 2009,
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65123/mohsen-m-milani/tehrans-take
.

19.
Vali Nasr,
The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam Will Shape the Future
(New York: Norton, 2006), pp. 147–68.

20.
Ray Takeyh,
Guardians of the Revolution: Iran and the World in the Age of the Ayatollahs
(New York: Oxford University Press, 2009), p. 245.

21.
Shahram Chubin,
Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions
(Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006).

22.
Cumming-Bruce, “Iran Calls Nuclear Arms Production,” p. A7.

23.
Dennis Ross, “Calling Iran’s Bluff: It’s Time to Offer Tehran a Civilian Nuclear Program,”
New Republic
, June 15, 2012,
http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/104085/calling-iran%E2%80%99s-bluff-its-time-offer-iran-civilian-nuclear-program?page=0,1
.

24.
Efrahim Halevy, “Iran’s Achilles Heel,”
New York Times
, February 7, 2012,
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/08/opinion/to-weaken-iran-start-with-syria.html
; James P. Rubin, “The Real Reason to Intervene in Syria,”
Foreign Policy
, June 4, 2012,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/06/04/the_real_reason_to_intervene_in_syria
.

25.
For a full discussion of Bush administration handling of Iran’s nuclear program see David Sanger,
The Inheritance: The World Obama Confronts and the Challenges to American Power
(New York: Crown, 2009), pp. 1–108.

26.
Ray Takeyh and Suzanne Maloney, “The Self-Limiting Success of Iran Sanctions,”
International Affairs
87, no. 6 (2011): 1297–1312.

27.
Suzanne Maloney, “How to Contain a Nuclear Iran,”
American Prospect
, March 5, 2009,
http://prospect.org/article/how-contain-nuclear-iran
.

28.
Hossein Mousavian,
Iran’s Nuclear Crisis: A Memoir
(Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012).

29.
“Blair, Chirac Hope IAEA Confirms Iran’s Voluntary Suspension,”
Pay-vand
, November 19, 2004,
http://www.payvand.com/news/04/nov/1163.html
.

30.
Hossein Mousavian, “How the U.S.-Iran Standoff Looks from Iran,”
Bloomberg View
, February 16, 2012,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-17/how-the-u-s-iran-standoff-looks-from-iran-hossein-mousavian.html
.

31.
Hossein Mousavian, “How to Engage Iran,”
Foreign Affairs
, February 9, 2012,
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ARTICLES/137095/hossein-mousavian/how-to-engage-iran?page=show
.

32.
Author interviews with a former Iranian official, June 2010.

33.
Robin Wright, “Stuart Levy’s War,”
New York Times
, October 31, 2008,
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/02/magazine/02IRAN-t.html?pagewanted=all
.

34.
U.S. State Department cable, Cairo, February 9, 2009, from Ambassador Margaret Scobey to the secretary of state,
http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/02/09CAIRO231.html
.

35.
U.S. State Department cable, Paris, February 12, 2010, from the American embassy to the secretary of state,
http://www.wikileaks.ch/cable/2010/02/10PARIS174.html
.

36.
Roger Cohen, “Iran’s Day of Anguish,”
New York Times
, June 14, 2009,
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/15/opinion/15iht-edcohen.html?_r=2
.

37.
Trita Parsi,
A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama’s Diplomacy with Iran
(New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2012), p. 115.

38.
David Sanger,
Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power
(New York: Crown, 2012), p. 184.

39.
David Sanger, “Iran Deal Would Slow Making of Nuclear Bombs,”
New York Times
, October 21, 2009,
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/22/world/middleeast/22nuke.html
.

40.
Author interview with German diplomat present at the meeting, May 2010.

41.
Farideh Farhi, “Anatomy of a Nuclear Breakthrough Gone Backwards,”
Middle East Research and Information Project
, December 8, 2009,
http://www.merip.org/mero/mero120809
.

42.
Martin Indyk, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, and Michael O’Hanlon,
Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy
(Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012), pp. 196–98.

43.
John Parker,
Persian Dreams: Moscow and Tehran Since the Fall of the Shah
(Washington, DC: Potomac Books, 2008).

44.
Mark Katz, “Iran and Russia,”
Iran Primer
, United States Institute for Peace,
http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/iran-and-russia
.

45.
Parsi,
Single Roll of the Dice
, p. 193.

46.
“The Iran Nuclear Issue: The View from Beijing,” Asia Briefing no. 100 (overview), International Crisis Group, February 17, 2010,
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/north-east-asia/china/B100-the-iran-nuclear-issue-the-view-from-beijing.aspx
.

47.
Dennis Ross and David Makovsky,
Myths, Illusions, and Peace: Finding a New Direction for America in the Middle East
(New York: Viking, 2009), p. 221.

48.
Parag Khanna,
The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order
(New York: Random House, 2008).

49.
Parsi,
Single Roll of the Dice
, pp. 172–93.

50.
Ibid., p. 187.

51.
Ibid., p. 192.

52.
Julian Borger, “Text of Iran-Brazil-Turkey Deal,”
Guardian
, May 17, 2010,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2010/may/17/iran-brazil-turkey-nuclear
.

53.
Sanger,
Confront and Conceal
, pp. 186–87.

54.
Mousavian,
Iran’s Nuclear Crisis
, p. 18.

55.
Roger Cohen, “Doctrine of Silence,”
New York Times
, November 28, 2011,
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/29/opinion/cohen-doctrine-of-silence.html
.

56.
Mark Perry, “False Flag,”
Foreign Policy
, January 13, 2012,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/13/false_flag
.

57.
“Spymaster: Meir Dagan on Iran’s Threat,”
60 Minutes
, March 11, 2012,
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18560_162-57394904/the-spymaster-meir-dagan-on-irans-threat/?tag=contentMain;cbsCarousel
.

58.
Roger Bergman, “Will Israel Attack Iran?”
New York Times
, January 29, 2012, p. MM22.

59.
Vali Nasr, “Hard-Line U.S. Policy Tips Iran Towards Belligerence,”
Bloomberg View
, January 4, 2012,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/hard-line-u-s-policy-tips-iran-toward-belligerence-vali-nasr.html
; “Council on Foreign Relations Foreign Affairs Focus: Vali Nasr on US-Iran Relations,” YouTube, January 25, 2012,
http://youtube/NaFC9WFUPfc
.

60.
Fareed Zakaria, “To Deal With Iran’s Nuclear Future, Go Back to 2008,”
Washington Post
, October 26, 2011,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/to-deal-with-irans-nuclear-future-go-back-to-2008/2011/10/26/gIQADQyEKM_story.html?hpid=z3
.

61.
William H. Luers and Thomas Pickering, “Military Action Isn’t the Only Solution to Iran,”
Washington Post
, December 30, 2011,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/military-action-isnt-the-only-solution-to-iran/2011/12/29/gIQA69sNRP_story.html
; William H. Luers and Thomas Pickering, “Envisioning a Deal with Iran,”
New York Times
, February 2, 2012,
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/opinion/envisioning-a-deal-with-iran.html
.

62.
Kateria Azarova and Anissa Naouai, “Step by Step: Russia’s Plan to Bring Iran Back for Good,”
RT News
, August 17, 2011,
http://rt.com/politics/iran-approves-russian-nuclear/
.

63.
“Iran Will Consider Russia’s Nuclear Plan,”
Press TV
, January 28, 2012,
http://presstv.com/detail/223505.html
.

64.
Joshua Hersh, “Iran Assassination Plot: Skeptics Question Motive and Method of an ‘Amateur Hour’ Scheme,”
Huffington Post
, October 12, 2011,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/12/iran-assassination-plot-skeptics_n_1008068.html
.

65.
Suzanne Maloney, “Obama’s Counterproductive New Iran Sanctions,”
Foreign Affairs
, January 5, 2012,
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137011/suzanne-maloney/obamas-counterproductive-new-iran-sanctions
.

66.
Former Iranian diplomat Hossein Mousavian quoted in Steve Inskeep, “Iran’s Decider: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei,”
National Public Radio
, February 23, 2012,
http://www.npr.org/2012/02/23/147277389/meet-irans-decider-supreme-leader-khamenei
.

67.
“Text of Obama’s Speech to AIPAC,”
Associated Press
, March 4, 2012,
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ioftJ0jiGfowjv-eLtNgGAVnxphA?docId=1d833bbc98324e338a99fbeccb38b763
.

68.
Ollie Heinonen, “The 20 Percent Solution,”
Foreign Policy
, January 11, 2012,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/11/the_20_percent_solution
.

69.
Richard Haass, “Enough Is Enough,”
Newsweek
, January 22, 2010,
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2010/01/21/enough-is-enough.html
.

70.
See Fareed Zakaria, “How History Could Deter Iranian Aggression,”
Washington Post
, February 15, 2012,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/history-could-be-a-deterrent-to-iranian-aggression/2012/02/15/gIQA6UVcGR_story.html
, and “Deterring Iran Is the Best Option,”
Washington Post
, March 14, 2012,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/deterring-iran-is-the-best-option/2012/03/14/gIQA0Y9mCS_story.html
; Bruce Riedel, “Iran Is Not an Existential Threat,”
thedailynewsegypt.com
, January 20, 2012,
http://thedailynewsegypt.com/global-views/iran-is-not-an-existential-threat.html
; Maloney, “How to Contain a Nuclear Iran.” Earlier iterations of this debate are covered
in David Sanger, “Debate Grows on Nuclear Containment of Iran,”
New York Times
, March 13, 2010,
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/14/weekinreview/14sanger.html
. On what containment may look like see James Lindsay and Ray Takeyh, “After Iran Gets the Bomb: Containment and Its Complications,”
Foreign Affairs
, March/April 2010,
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66032/james-m-lindsay-and-ray-takeyh/after-iran-gets-the-bomb
.