The Dispensable Nation: American Foreign Policy in Retreat (44 page)

  
1.
Hassan Bin Talal, “U.S. Can’t Abandon the Middle East,”
Los Angeles Times
, April 17, 2012,
http://articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-hassan-middle-east-engagement-20120417
.

  
2.
Daniel Yergin,
The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power
(New York: Simon & Schuster, 1991), pp. 167–83.

  
3.
Andrew Scott Cooper,
The Oil Kings: How the U.S., Iran, and Saudi Arabia Changed the Balance of Power in the Middle East
(New York: Simon & Schuster, 2011), pp. 137–98.

  
4.
See Gene Whitney, Carl E. Behrens, and Carol Glover, “U.S. Fossil Fuel Resources: Terminology, Reporting, and Summary,” U.S. Congressional Research Service, March 25, 2011, p. 22, Table 6,
http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/R40872_20110325.pdf
.

  
5.
Alex de Marban, “North Dakota Crude Elbows Alaska Oil Out of Washington Refinery,”
Alaska Dispatch
, June 13, 2012,
http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/north-dakota-crude-elbows-alaska-oil-out-washington-refinery
.

  
6.
Thomas Friedman, “The Other Arab Spring,”
New York Times
, April 8, 2012, p. SR1.

  
7.
“Lights Out: Another Threat to a Fragile Country’s Stability,”
Economist
, October 8, 2011,
http://www.economist.com/node/21531495
.

  
8.
Michael Kugelman, “Pakistan’s Climate Change Challenge,”
Foreign Policy
, May 9, 2012,
http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/05/09/pakistans_climate_change_challenge
.

  
9.
John Bongaarts, Zeba Sathar, and Arshad Mahmoud, “Seven Billion People, How Many Pakistanis?”
News
, November 1, 2011,
http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-9-75429-Seven-billion-people-how-many-Pakistanis
; “Pakistan to Become the World’s 4th Largest Nation by 2050: Survey,”
Pakistan Defence
, June 28, 2010,
http://www.defence.pk/forums/economy-development/63702-pakistan-become-4th-largest-nation-population-2050-a.html
.

10.
Robert Worth, “Earth Is Parched Where Syrian Farms Thrived,”
New York Times
, October 13, 2010,
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/14/world/middleeast/14syria.html
.

11.
Ruchir Sharma,
Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles
(New York: Norton, 2012), p. 23.

12.
Zuliu Hu and Mohsin S. Khan,
Why Is China Growing So Fast?
Economic Issues series, no. 8 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 1997), p. 1,
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues8/issue8.pdf
.

13.
Niall Ferguson, “Mideast’s Next Dilemma: With Turkey Flexing Its Muscles, We May Soon Face a Revived Ottoman Empire,”
Newsweek
, June 19, 2011,
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/06/19/turkey-the-mideast-s-next-dilemma.html#
.

14.
Ahmet Davutoglu,
Civilizational Transformation and the Muslim World
(Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: Mahir Publications, 1994); “The Davutoglu Effect,”
Economist
, October 21, 2010,
http://www.economist.com/node/17276420
.

15.
Sharma,
Breakout Nations
, p. 119.

16.
Vali Nasr,
The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future
(New York: Norton, 2006).

17.
Halil Karaveli, “Why Does Turkey Want Regime Change in Syria?”
National Interest
, July 23, 2012,
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/why-does-turkey-want-regime-change-syria-7227
.

18.
“Alevis Fire at Government in Ongoing Cemevi Quarrel,”
Hurriyet Daily News
, August 11, 2012,
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/alevis-fire-at-government-in-ongoing-cemevi-quarrel.aspx?pageID=238&nID=25298&NewsCatID=339
.

19.
“Growing Less Mild,”
Economist
, April 14, 2012, p. 61.

20.
Halil M. Karaveli, “Why Turkey Is Not Going to Help Midwife a Pluralist Syria,”
Turkey Analyst
5, no. 15, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, August 13, 2012,
http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/inside/turkey/2012/120813a.html
.

21.
Ibid.

22.
“Erdogan Lambasts Opposition, Says Syrian Crisis Not Sectarian,”
Today’s Zaman
, May 15, 2012,
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-280401-syrian-crisis-not-sectarian-but-humanitarian-issue-says-erdogan.html
.

23.
Anthony Shadid, “Turkey Predicts Alliance with Egypt as Regional Anchors,”
New York Times
, September 19, 2011, p. A4.

24.
Matt Bradley, “Saudi Arabia Closes Embassy in Egypt,”
Wall Street Journal
, April 28, 2012,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304723304577371912180606218.html?mod=WSJ_World_LEFTSecondNews
.

25.
Tony Karon, “Does Qatar Share the West’s Agenda in Libya?”
Time
, October 5, 2011,
http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/10/05/does-qatar-share-the-wests-agenda-in-libya/
; Rod Norland and David Kirkpatrick,
“Islamists’ Growing Sway Raises Questions for Libya,”
New York Times
, September 14, 2011,
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/15/world/africa/in-libya-islamists-growing-sway-raises-questions.html?pagewanted=all
.

26.
Golnaz Esfandiari, “Qatar Conquers Iran’s Airspace,”
Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty
, November 5, 2011,
http://www.rferl.org/content/qatar_conquers_irans_airspace/24382213.html
.

27.
Sharma,
Breakout Nations
, p. 213; Vali Nasr, “Will Saudis Kill the Arab Spring?”
Bloomberg View
, May 23, 2011,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.html
.

28.
Sharma,
Breakout Nations
, p. 216.

29.
Robert Kaplan,
The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate
(New York: Random House, 2012), p. 258.

30.
Kiren Aziz Chaudhry,
The Price of Wealth: Economies and Institutions in the Middle East
(Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1997); Thomas W. Lippman,
Saudi Arabia on the Edge: The Uncertain Future of an American Ally
(Washington, DC: Potomac Books, 2012).

31.
Toby Jones,
Desert Kingdom: How Oil and Water Forged Modern Saudi Arabia
(Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2010).

32.
Nasr,
Shia Revival
, pp. 147–68.

33.
Interview with a former Iranian official, July 2011.

  
1.
Jeffrey Bader, who worked on China at the Obama White House, writes of President Obama’s belief that America had neglected Asia because of its focus on the Middle East and al-Qaeda in
Obama and China’s Rise: An Insider’s Account of America’s Asia Strategy
(Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012); also see David M. Lampton, “China and the United States: Beyond Balance,”
Asia Policy
14 (July 2012): 41.

  
2.
Ibid.

  
3.
Hillary Clinton, “America’s Pacific Century,”
Foreign Policy
, November 2011,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas_pacific_century
.

  
4.
Ibid.

  
5.
Kenneth Lieberthal and Wang Jisi,
Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust
, John L. Thornton China Center Monograph Series, no. 4 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012).

  
6.
Dale Copeland, “Economic Interdependence and the Future of U.S.-China Relations,” in G. John Ikenberry and Michael Mastaduno, eds.,
International Relations Theory and the Asia-Pacific
(New York: Columbia University Press, 2003), pp. 323–52.

  
7.
Henry M. Kissinger, “The Future of U.S.-Chinese Relations: Conflict Is a Choice, Not a Necessity,”
Foreign Affairs
, March/April 2012,
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137245/henry-a-kissinger/the-future-of-us-chinese-relations
.

  
8.
David Smith, “Hillary Clinton Launches African Tour with Veiled Attack on China,”
Guardian
, August 1, 2012,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/01/hillary-clinton-africa-china
.

  
9.
Aaron Friedberg,
A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia
(New York: Norton, 2011).

10.
Arvind Subramanian,
Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance
(Washington, DC: Institute of International Economics, 2012); Martin Jacques,
When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order
, 2nd ed. (New York: Penguin Press, 2012).

11.
Zachary Karabell,
Superfusion: How China and America Became One Economy and Why the World’s Prosperity Depends on It
(New York: Simon & Schuster, 2009); Robyn Meredith,
The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What It Means for All of Us
(New York: Norton, 2007); Nicholas Lardy,
Sustaining China’s Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis
(Washington, DC: Peterson Institute, 2012).

12.
Kathrin Hille, “Clinton Struggles to Soothe Beijing’s Fears,”
Financial Times
, September 5, 2012,
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9b296eec-f728-11e1-8e9e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz25abzfG2p
.

13.
Andrew J. Nathan and Andrew Scobell, “How China Sees America,”
Foreign Affairs
, September/October 2012,
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/138009/andrew-j-nathan-and-andrew-scobell/how-china-sees-america?page=show
; Robert Ross, “The Problem with the Pivot,”
Foreign Affairs
, November/December 2012, pp. 70–82.

14.
Thom Shanker, “Panetta Set to Discuss U.S. Shift in Asia Trip,”
New York Times
, September 14, 2012, p. A4.

15.
Kissinger, “Future of U.S.-Chinese Relations.”

16.
Henry M. Kissinger,
On China
(New York: Penguin Press, 2012), pp. 487–530; Zbigniew Brzezinski,
Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power
(New York: Basic Books, 2012), pp. 155–82.

17.
Daniel Yergin,
The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Making of the Modern World
(New York: Penguin Press, 2011), p. 222.

18.
Rebecca M. Nelson, Mary Jane Bolle, and Shayerah Ilias,
U.S. Trade and Investment in the Middle East and North Africa: Overview and
Issues for Congress
, Congressional Research Service report, January 20, 2012,
http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/183739.pdf
.

19.
Direction of Trade Statistics Yearbook, 2011
(Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2011),
http://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF042/11827-9781616351489/11827-9781616351489/11827-9781616351489.xml?rskey=J2QZQv&result=1&q=Direction%20of%20Trade%20Statistics%20Yearbook,%202011
.

20.
Qian Xuewen, “Sino-Arab Economic Trade and Cooperation: Situations, Tasks, Issues, and Strategies,”
Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies
5, no. 4 (2011): 68.

21.
Kissinger, “Future of U.S.-Chinese Relations.”

22.
Bernard Gordon, “Trading Up in Asia,”
Foreign Affairs
, July/August 2012,
www.foreignaffairs.com/print/134960
.

23.
Jane Perlez, “Clinton Makes Effort to Rechannel the Rivalry with China,”
New York Times
, July 8, 2012, p. A7.

24.
Joseph Nye, “Energy Independence in an Interdependent World,”
Project Syndicate
, July 11, 2012,
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/energy-independence-in-an-interdependent-world
.

25.
“China to Build $2bn Railway for Iran,”
Telegraph
, September 7, 2010,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/7985812/China-to-build-2bn-railway-for-Iran.html
.

26.
Myles Smith, “China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Project Brings Political Risks,”
Central Asia Institute Analyst
, Johns Hopkins University, March 7, 2012,
http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/5731
.

27.
“Turkey, China Sign Two Nuclear Agreements During PM’s Visit,”
Daily Hurriyet
, April 10, 2012,
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-china-sign-two-nuclear-agreements-during-pms-visit.aspx?pageID=238&nID=18032&NewsCatID=348
. This article puts the 2010 trade figures at $19.5 billion; TUSIAD in Beijing puts the 2012 figures at $25 billion.

28.
Interviews with oil executives investing in Iraq, and with Turkish Kurdish Regional Government officials, August and September 2012.

29.
Kent Calder,
The New Continentalism: Energy and Twenty-First Century Eurasian Geopolitics
(New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2012), pp. xxxi–xxxii.

30.
Yergin,
Quest
, p. 210.

31.
James Fallows,
China Airborne
(New York: Pantheon, 2012), p. 98.

32.
Yergin,
Quest
, p. 172.

33.
Robert Kaplan, “Center Stage for the 21st Century: Power Plays in the Indian Ocean,”
Foreign Affairs
, April/May 2009,
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/64832
.

34.
Preparing for China’s Urban Billion
(San Francisco: McKinsey Global Institute, 2009), p. 18, cited in Fallows,
China Airborne
, p. 101.

35.
John Lee, “China’s Geostrategic Search for Oil,”
Washington Quarterly
35, no. 3 (Summer 2012): 75–92.

36.
Steve Coll,
Private Empire: ExxonMobil and American Power
(New York: Penguin Press, 2012), p. 240.

37.
Ibid., pp. 240–41.

38.
Yergin,
Quest
, pp. 222–23.

39.
Kalder,
The New Continentalism
, p. 3.

40.
John Mearsheimer,
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics
(New York: Norton, 2001), pp. 360–402.

41.
Coll,
Private Empire
, p. 243.

42.
Robert Kaplan,
Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power
(New York: Random House, 2010).

43.
Kalder,
New Continentalism
, p. 36.

44.
Farhan Bokhari and Kathrin Hille, “Pakistan in Talks to Hand Port to China,”
Financial Times
, August 31, 2012,
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5c58608c-f2a6-11e1-ac41-00144feabdc0.html#axzz25gV7a6Qn
.

45.
Kalder,
New Continentalism
, pp. xxxi–xxxiii.

46.
Robert Kaplan, “The Geography of Chinese Power,”
Foreign Affairs
, May/June, 2010,
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66205/robert-d-kaplan/the-geography-of-chinese-power?page=4
.

47.
Kalder,
New Continentalism
, p. 8.

48.
Susan Shirk,
China: Fragile Superpower
(New York: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 257–58.

49.
Kalder,
New Continentalism
, p. 23.

50.
Tony Smith,
The Pattern of Imperialism: The United States, Great Britain, and the Late-Industrializing World Since 1815
(New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981).

51.
Coll,
Private Empire
, p. 241.

52.
Kissinger,
On China
, pp. 513–30.

53.
See Arthur S. Herman,
To Rule the Waves: How the British Navy Shaped the Modern World
(New York: HarperCollins, 2004).

54.
Dambisa Mayo,
Winner Takes All: China’s Race for Resources and What It Means for the World
(New York: Basic Books, 2012).

55.
Debora Brautigam,
The Dragon’s Gift: The Real Story of China in Africa
(New York: Oxford University Press, 2010).

56.
Vali Nasr, “International Politics, Domestic Imperatives, and the Rise of Politics of Identity: Sectarianism in Pakistan, 1979–1997,”
Comparative Politics
32, no. 2 (January 2000): 171–90; Vali Nasr, “The Rise of Sunni Militancy in Pakistan: The Changing Role of Islamism and the Ulama
in Society and Politics,”
Modern Asian Studies
34, no. 1 (January 2000): 139–80.

57.
Vali Nasr,
The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future
(New York: Norton, 2006), pp. 147–68.

58.
James Lamont and Farhan Bokhari, “China-Pakistan Military Links Upset India,”
Financial Times
, November 27, 2009,
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9d5497f0-db8d-11de-9424-00144feabdc0.html
.

59.
Ibid.

60.
“Pakistan, China Have Shared Interests in Peace Promotion: PM,”
Nation
, May 15, 2012,
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/islamabad/15-May-2012/pakistan-china-have-shared-interests-in-peace-promotion-pm
.

61.
Dennis Kux,
The United States and Pakistan, 1947–2000: Disenchanted Allies
(Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001).

62.
Harsh V. Pant, “The Pakistan Thorn in China-India-U.S. Relations,”
Washington Quarterly
35, no. 1 (Winter 2012): 83.

63.
John W. Garver, “Sino-Indian Rapprochement and the Sino-Pakistan Entente,”
Political Science Quarterly
111, no. 2 (Summer 1996): 326–33.

64.
Pant, “Pakistan Thorn,” p. 86.

65.
Ibid., p. 85.

66.
R. Jeffrey Smith and Joby Warrick, “Pakistani Nuclear Scientist Accounts Tell of Chinese Proliferation,”
Washington Post
, November 13, 2009,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/12/AR2009111211060.html
.

67.
Kaplan, “Center Stage for the 21st Century.”

68.
Ibid.

69.
John W. Garver,
China and Iran: Ancient Partners in a Post-Imperial World
(Seattle: University of Washington, 2006).

70.
Scott Harold and Alireza Nader,
China and Iran: Economic, Political, and Military Relations
(Washington, DC: RAND Corporation, 2012).

71.
John Garver, Flynt Leverett, and Hillary Mann Leverett,
Moving (Slightly) Closer to Iran: China’s Shifting Calculus for Managing Its “Persian Gulf Dilemma”
(Washington, DC: Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 2009).

72.
John Garver, “Is China Playing a Dual Game with Iran?”
Washington Quarterly
34, no. 1 (Winter 2011): 75–88; “The Iran Nuclear Issue: The View from Beijing,” Asia Briefing no. 100 (overview), International Crisis Group, February 17, 2010,
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/north-east-asia/china/B100-the-iran-nuclear-issue-the-view-from-beijing.aspx
.

73.
Fallows,
China Airborne
, p. 190.

74.
James Mann,
The Obamians: The Struggle Inside the White House to Redefine American Power
(New York: Viking, 2012), pp. 246–47.