“I don’t understand what you are saying,”
stated Noldt. “What is the alternative? Surely such a thing doesn’t
occur spontaneously on Earth?”
“No, I don’t see how it possibly could,”
agreed Runyan. “I don’t see how it could have occurred naturally on
or off of the Earth.” He paused, unable to avoid sounding
portentous, and somewhat embarrassed at doing so. He was determined
not to speak next.
After a moment, Leems spoke up with an edge
in his voice. “If we accept your arguments up to this point, then
we’re forced to the conclusion that this thing was manufactured. Is
that what you’re saying?”
Runyan nodded, but remained silent as all
eyes shifted toward him. At last he said, “That’s the second
conclusion I’ve reached. I think we must allow for the possibility
unless it can be rigorously ruled out.”
Again Runyan became silent as he exchanged
glances with his colleagues, desiring to support, but not lead the
discussion at this critical juncture.
“There are two possibilities then, aren’t
there?” asked Fletcher. “It’s man-made or . . .” He paused and
finally said in a flat voice, “Or it’s not.”
“Omigod!” exclaimed Noldt. “You mean this
thing could have been manufactured by extraterrestrials and. . .and
planted here?”
Several voices were raised in simultaneous
protest.
“This is getting out of hand!”
“UFO’s again! That’s very hard to
believe!”
Isaacs had a flash of memory of the AFTAC
headquarters in Florida where he had first heard of the seismic
signal. He couldn’t believe what he was hearing. How could that
simple little rattle in the Earth be related to the insanity that
was being expressed in this room! Then he thought of Zamyatin.
Whatever was going on, he couldn’t feature explaining black holes
to the KGB chief, never mind trying to convince him they were being
fired by nasty little green men from outer space. He shook his head
and pinched his eyes with thumb and finger. This discussion just
had no connection whatever with the real world of geopolitical
confrontation with which he dealt every day.
Runyan cut in. “I’m sure we agree that the
whole situation is hard to believe!”
“The energy requirements to make such a thing
must be gigantic,” said Leems. “Surely the suggestion that it’s
artificial is absurd.”
“It would take a lot of energy,” Runyan
agreed.
“Don’t you think it’s fair to conclude then,”
Leems pressed, “that such a thing would be exceedingly difficult,
if not impossible, to create? I have a strong suspicion we’re on
the wrong track altogether despite your argument here.”
“I don’t deny that point,” replied Runyan.
“It’s very difficult to conceive how such a thing could be
done.”
“Still,” argued Noldt, “it’s not that it’s
impossible, just that we can’t see how it could be accomplished
technologically. Isn’t that correct?”
“I think that’s correct,” said Runyan. “We’re
talking about very large amounts of energy, but not an infinite
amount. In principle, it could be done. After all, we’re fairly
comfortable with the notion of it happening spontaneously in an
astronomical context. Also, the large energy you’re thinking about
is based on brute force compression. There may be more elegant
means to the end.”
“Then,” said Noldt with a barely suppressed
excitement, “since we see no way to do it on Earth, aren’t we
forced to consider the possibility that such a thing was made by
extraterrestrials and put in the Earth for some purpose?”
“Before we invoke some malevolent intent,
terrestrial or otherwise,” Leems said with scarcely veiled sarcasm,
“I must say I’m not satisfied that we really know enough to rule
out a natural origin. Even if we accept that we’re dealing with a
black hole, and I’m as yet far from convinced of the necessity, how
can we eliminate the possibility that this thing started out
exceedingly small a long time ago? Maybe the Earth even condensed
around it, and it took all this time, five billion years, for it to
grow to its present size.”
“I have two responses to that,” Runyan said.
“One is that the Universe was already quite old when the Earth was
born. There were no special conditions at the time to create small
black holes, and any born in the Big Bang should have long since
evaporated.”
“Well then, figure out a way to prevent
evaporation,” Leems said harshly. “That still seems more likely
than insisting on some intelligent plot at work.”
“Maybe so, maybe so,” Runyan said slowly.
“The other thing that bothers me is that the growth time for this
thing is relatively long. I find it peculiar that this phenomenon
has only just been discovered, since the technology to detect it
has been around for some time.”
“Are you saying that this thing has just been
put here recently?” asked Noldt. He half-glanced over his shoulder
as if expecting to catch a glimpse of an alien presence.
After a moment’s hesitation, Runyan spoke
again. “I’m disturbed that we’re skirting a bit close to the edge
of reason here with too few facts to support us.” He cleared his
throat, then continued. “Perhaps we should set aside for awhile the
issue of how such a thing could come to be and try to consider some
other factors. We should discuss what we can do to learn more about
this object.”
“I’ve been thinking about that,” said
Fletcher, “as a remedy for incipient hysteria.”
Pat Danielson had been following the
discussion intently. She had felt herself becoming more edgy as the
tension in the room increased. She had read some popular accounts
of astronomy and their discussions of black holes and thought she
was beginning to make some sense from Runyan’s remarks, but the
idea that he would leap from the evidence she had compiled to this
conclusion still left her stunned. And now talk of manufacturing
such a thing. That just couldn’t be. She joined the nervous
laughter after Fletcher’s remark and could sense the more relaxed
mood that spread through the room.
Fletcher continued, “There should be quite a
bit one could do by adopting your hypothesis as a working
assumption and constructing appropriate models. If we could predict
the behavior of a small black hole, or whatever, orbiting through
the Earth, we could compare such predictions with the seismic data
and other observations and perhaps get a much better idea of just
what we are dealing with. Ideally, we should be able to prove your
hypothesis true—or false.”
“Ah, a voice of reason,” said Leems, in a
more lively tone. “I don’t know much about seismic waves, but it
still seems to me that they should be modeled as well, to see
whether the data that have been reported can be accounted for as
some natural seismic phenomenon. The data are admittedly quite
bizarre, but surely our seismologist friends don’t know everything
about the workings of the inner Earth. Maybe there are special
fissures or lattice works that channel waves in this special
way.
“I do concede, though, Alex,” Leems
continued, “that since you have let this particular genie of yours
out of the bottle, it should be pursued.”
“That’s right,” agreed Noldt, “if we are, in
fact, dealing with a black hole and it originated on the Earth’s
surface, then, if I have the picture correctly, it should return
roughly to its point of origin.”
“I wish you wouldn’t assume it was made on
the Earth’s surface,” interrupted Leems.
Noldt gave him a befuddled glance and
continued, gesturing toward Isaacs and Danielson. “We already have
reasonably accurate predictive capabilities. We can predict when
and where the thing is due to come up and, well, of course you
don’t just grab it, but surely we could learn more about it
then.”
“In fact,” added Fletcher, “shouldn’t an
orbit tell us just where the origin was with respect to the
surface?”
Leems frowned again, but did not say
anything.
“Yes, exactly right,” said Runyan. “If we
compare the apogee, the point farthest from the center of the
Earth, to the Earth’s topography, that should give us some
pertinent information. We already have an interesting indication
from the Dallas event so nicely predicted by Dr. Danielson.” He
nodded at Danielson and she smiled quickly in return. “About forty
seconds elapsed from the first episode in the bar to the
destruction of the building across the alley. An object in free
fall could not have risen and then fallen more than a few thousand
feet. So apparently apogee is somewhat above sea level, but not
far. The point at which the orbit peaks will occur deep under
mountains of any height, the Rockies or the Himalayas. More precise
information of this sort could be most useful.”
“If we can tell where this thing comes out of
the Earth, what sort of tests can we run?” asked Noldt. “You can’t
see such a thing can you?”
“No,” answered Runyan, “it’s about the size
of an atomic nucleus. You surely couldn’t see it directly. It’s
most distinctive characteristic, of course, would be its
gravitational field. That should be quite appreciable. Gravimeters
set up in the vicinity should be able to tell us precisely what the
mass of the object is, whether or not it comes to or through the
surface. A simple seismic wave will have no effect on the local
strength of gravity. A massive, orbiting object, on the other hand,
should give a definite signature.
“I propose that this be our first move, and
that since Gantt is our resident seismologist, he’s the man to
mount such an expedition.” Runyan turned to Gantt. “What do you
say, Ellison? If Dr. Danielson can predict where the event will
approach the surface at a given time, won’t you be able to measure
or set stringent limits on the fluctuations of the gravitational
field?”
“That’s an excellent idea!” responded Gantt
with enthusiasm. “I’ll start planning immediately.”
Runyan glanced at Leems and then inquired,
“What do you think of that, Harvey?”
Leems clasped his fingers together and stared
at them for a moment. “The gravity seems to be an effective
discriminant. By all means, let’s put your idea to the test.”
Gantt raised a finger and inquired, “How well
can you predict the point of surfacing? Can Dr. Danielson’s
estimates be improved?”
“I think there’s much to be done with
computer models,” responded Runyan. “I sketched a crude
hypothetical orbit on the board. There will be many perturbations
to an idealized orbit, but to work those out in detail can be done
with sufficient effort. In addition, there may be some effect from
the Sun and Moon, and perhaps the larger planets. With the
exception of the effect of the structure of the inner Earth, which
is not known precisely, computation of a detailed hypothetical
orbit should be possible.”
“Who would do these orbit calculations?”
inquired Noldt.
“The people with the expertise,” replied
Runyan, “are those who calculate satellite orbits. They’ve already
developed techniques to handle inhomogeneities in the Earth’s
gravitational field as well as perturbations of the Sun, Moon, and
planets. The effect of irregularities in the interior of the Earth
have not, of course, been studied in that context. Incorporating
the effects of structure on the orbit should be possible in some
approximation, though. There will also be drag forces, since the
orbiting object will be accreting and, if nothing else, losing
energy into the seismic waves we are detecting.”
There was a pause as these various practical
considerations were pondered.
“At the risk of leading us back to the brink
of insanity,” began Fletcher after a moment, “I think we should at
least touch upon one more item. I know we would all rather go after
experimental results than to speculate with insufficient data, but
I think we are charged here with exploring all avenues, at least in
a preliminary fashion.” He looked sharply at Runyan. “What should
be done if you’re correct, Alex?”
This query plunged the room back into an
uncomfortable silence. The relief that had come with the discussion
of the dispassionate collection of data was replaced with general
discomfort. No one was anxious to contemplate what could only be a
dreadful prospect.
Leems spoke first. “Surely it’s premature,
but, yes, let’s play the game out.”
“Perhaps I should lead off,” Runyan spoke
quietly. “Though I confess I have nothing definite, and certainly
nothing positive, to say on the subject.” He paused, collecting his
thoughts, sensing again the yawning chasm.
“Black holes are notoriously one-way affairs.
They get bigger. A black hole will eat and grow like a cancer in
the bowels of the Earth. Where it does orbit above the surface, it
becomes accessible in a sense, but it’s not clear that that does us
much good. As Ted remarked earlier, you don’t just load something
the size of an atomic nucleus and the weight of a small mountain in
the back of a truck and haul it off. We have two choices: destroy
it, or remove it from the Earth. The hell of it is, I don’t see any
way of doing either.”
After a moment’s quiet, Fletcher spoke.
“There’s a third choice, isn’t there?” He looked around at his
colleagues. “Evacuate the Earth.”
“Good lord!” ejaculated Leems. “Let’s not get
morbid.”
“Carl’s not trying to be morbid,” said Noldt
with some heat. “We need to explore all the possibilities, and he’s
just being honest.”
Fletcher gave a quick nod of acknowledgment
in Noldt’s direction and then addressed himself to Runyan. “If it
is a hole, Alex, how fast is it growing?”
“That depends rather sensitively on how
massive it is and the structure of the material it passes through,”
Runyan replied. “The time to double in mass could be several
thousand years.”
“As short as that!” exclaimed Noldt.
“I could easily be off by a factor of ten. It
could be longer.” He looked Noldt in the eye. “Or it could be
shorter.” He glanced around at the group. “This is a crucial point
that Carl has raised. Any estimate of the time scale will require a
knowledge of the mass, which makes the effort to measure the mass
even more important. In any case, if we are dealing with a black
hole, it will only grow at an ever increasing rate. We’ll never
have any longer to figure out what to do about it than we have
right now.”