The Norm Chronicles (48 page)

Read The Norm Chronicles Online

Authors: Michael Blastland

INDEX

23andMe
266
9/11, avoiding flying after
165
A
abduction
34
abortion
89
above-average effect
166
absolute risk
14
,
44
accidents
52
–62
activity
190
Adams, John
167
,
196
,
208
affect heuristic
127
Afghanistan
17
,
124
,
202
AIDS
advertisement
84
effect on life-expectancy
282
airport security, X-ray
262
alcohol
189
as drug
100
news stories
50
aleatory uncertainty
151
Alpine Club
176
Alzheimer’s disease, gene for
267
Amis, Kingsley
186
anaesthetic
history
252
in childbirth
126
risk
17
anecdote, immunity to
238
asbestos, deaths from
201
asteroid
2037 TP
109
Almahata Sitta
13
Apophis
220
mitigation
221
Potentially Hazardous
219
risk
216
astragulus
132
asymmetry of regret
56
Augustine, St
150
auto-asphyxiation
91
availability bias
49
270
average
139
–45
in contrast to extreme cases
93
law of averages
154
misleading
163
absurd
215
potentially misleading
286
B
Bagenholm, Anna
2
banana, unit of radiation
209
base-jumping
178
basic reproduction number
68
Benzodiazepine
99
betting-odds as probability
288
Bhopal
200
bias, for zero risk
196
biassed assimilation
113
Bible, The
132
278
birth
giving
120
–28
place of
26
weight
14
birthday, matching
79
black swans
226
blame
23
body mass index (BMI)
144
,
190
Boston molasses disaster
200
British Crime Survey
102
,
243
Bureau for Labor Statistics
197
Burglaries
244
C
CABG, risk
255
Caesar, Julius
127
caesarian section
127
cancer
pancreatic
45
prostate
264
risk
43
cannabis
psychosis
103
usage
102
Cardano, Girolamo
132
care costs
274
certainty
118
see also
uncertainty
chance
146
–57
changing mind
161
Chaos theory
156
Chekhov, Anton
42
Chernobyl
209
childbirth, international
123
Cicero, on chance
151
cigarettes
compared to radiation
263
risk from
189
climacteric years
278
climate change
attitudes
109
discount rate
115
coalmining
198
Codeine
99
Codman, Ernest
254
coincidence
72
–81
birthdays
79
definition
76
stories
75
Como, Perry
218
compensation culture
60
Confidential Enquiry into Maternal
Deaths
125
constipation
104
contraception, failure rates
88
control, illusion of
166
Countryside Alliance
62
crashes
plane
171
train
164
cricket, match-fixing
133
crime
235
CT scans
207
Cultural Cognition Project
111
Cultural theory
113
D
de Méré, Chevalier
133
Decision theory
56
denominator neglect
48
determinism
149
Dickens, Charles
76
,
96
dinosaurs, being wiped out
218
disasters
202
train
164
discount rate
115
discounting, temporal
185
diving
178
DNA, identifying children
33
Dostoevsky, Fyodor
148
Douglas, Mary
101
,
113
,
197
dread risks
206
drowning
children
55
fishermen
199
drugs
94
–106
Duckworth-Lewis method
133
E
E. Coli
117
earthquake
117
Ecstasy (MDMA)
99
usage
102
edgework
180
eminence-based medicine
250
epistemic uncertainty
151
equasy
104
evidence-based medicine
250
exercise
190
extreme sports
174
–81
F
falls from ladders
9
fear
factors
206
of flying
170
of violence
237
fecundability
87
Fermat, Pierre de
133
,
287
Fish, Michael
119
fishing, commercial
199
Fixed Odds Betting Terminals (FOBTs)
135
flying
170
–73
food poisoning
117
force of mortality
186
,
279
framing
45
–8
free will
149
,
152
fruit and veg
190
Fukushima
210
fun
84
,
132
,
137
,
see also
extreme sports
funnel plot
257
G
Galton, Francis
152
Gamble Aware
134
gambling
129
–38
pathological
136
gases, kinetic theory
153
genetic screening
266
genetic variant
47
Gigerenzer, Gerd
46
,
165
Gill, Tim
61
Gompertz, Benjamin
280
gonorrhoea, rates
91
Gould, Stephen Jay
143
Grand National
287
Gummer, John
119
H
Halley, Edmond
278
hazard
curve
280
of employment
230
of unemployment
228
ratio
186
health and safety
194
–203
Health and Safety Executive
61
ALARP
202
myths
195
healthy worker effect
201
heart disease, deaths
9
heart valve surgery, risk
255
Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle
156
helicopter accidents
173
high-impact, low-probability events
226
Hiroshima
209
Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy
153
HIV, risk of infection
91
Holmes, Sherlock
97
,
105
horse-racing, betting
136
,
287
horse-riding
accidents
179
addiction to
104
hospitals
outcome statistics
254
risk
253
HPV vaccine
67
side-effects
70
Human Mortality Database
280
hurricane
119
I
illusory superiority
166
infancy
20
–30
infant mortality
23
international
27
International Labour Organisation
198
involuntary risk
206
ionising radiation
206
J
journeys, by train
163
Jung, Carl
76
K
Kahan, Dan
111
Kahneman, Daniel
49
,
237
,
270
Keynes, John Maynard
161
knife-crime, in London
240
L
L’Aquila
117
L’homme moyen
142
,
153
Laplace, Pierre
151
Laudanum
96
lie detectors
261
life-expectancy
281
historical
282
lifestyle
182
–94
London beer flood
200
longevity
278
lottery
for decision-making
131
Irish, buying all tickets
134

Other books

Dark Angel by Sally Beauman
The Tooth by Des Hunt
Just One Look by Harlan Coben
Forever Baby by Ellie Wade
Flowing with the Go by Elena Stowell
Dark Heart Surrender by Monroe, Lee
Weekend with Death by Patricia Wentworth