The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers

Read The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers Online

Authors: Paul Kennedy

Tags: #General, #History, #World, #Political Science

First Vintage Books Edition, January 1989

 

Copyright © 1987 by Paul Kennedy

 

All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. Published in the United States by Random House, Inc., New York. Originally published, in hardcover, by Random House, Inc., in 1987.

 

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Kennedy, Paul M., 1945-
The rise and fall of the great powers.
1. History, Modern. 2. Economic history.
3. Military history, Modern. 4. Armaments—Economic aspects. 5. Balance of power. I. Title.
D210.K46 1989  909.82  88-40123
eISBN: 978-0-307-77356-2

 

Grateful acknowledgment is made to the following for permission to reprint previously published material:

 

Lexington Books, D. C. Heath and Company: An illustration from
American Defense Annual 1987–1988
, edited by Joseph Kruzel, Copyright © 1987, D. C. Heath and Company (Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, D. C. Heath and Company). Reprinted by permission of the publisher.

 

Maps by John Paul Tremblay

 

v3.1

 

To Cath

 
Acknowledgments
 

     W
hatever the weaknesses of this book, they would have been far greater without the kind help of friends. J. R. Jones and Gordon Lee went through the entire manuscript, asking questions all the way. My colleague Jonathan Spence endeavored (I fear with only partial success) to curb the cultural assumptions which emerged in the first two chapters. John Elliott was encouraging about
Chapter 2
, despite its being very evidently “not my period.” Paddy O’Brien and John Bosher sought to make my comments on eighteenth-century British and French finance a little less crude. Nick Rizopoulos and Michael Mandelbaum not only scrutinized the later chapters, but also invited me to present my ideas at a series of meetings at the Lehrman Institute in New York. Many, many scholars have heard me give papers on subthemes in this book, and have provided references, much-needed criticism, and encouragement.

The libraries and staffs at the universities of East Anglia and Yale were of great assistance. My graduate student Kevin Smith helped me in the search for historical statistics. My son Jim Kennedy prepared the maps. Sheila Klein and Sue McClain came to the rescue with typing and word processing, as did Maarten Pereboom with the bibliography. I am extremely grateful for the sustained support and encouragement which my literary agent, Bruce Hunter, has provided over the years. Jason Epstein has been a firm and patient editor, repeatedly getting me to think of the general reader—and also recognizing earlier than the author did how demanding it would be to deal with themes of this magnitude.

My family has provided support and, more important still, light relief. The book is dedicated to my wife, to whom I owe so much.

Paul Kennedy                    
Hamden, Connecticut, 1986

Contents
 
 
 
Maps
 
Tables & Charts
 

TABLES

 

  
1. Increase in Military Manpower, 1470–1660

  
2. British Wartime Expenditure and Revenue, 1688–1815

  
3. Populations of the Powers, 1700–1800

  
4. Size of Armies, 1690–1814

  
5. Size of Navies, 1689–1815

  
6. Relative Shares of World Manufacturing Output, 1750–1900

  
7. Per Capita Levels of Industrialization, 1750–1900

  
8. Military Personnel of the Powers, 1816–1880

  
9. GNP of the European Great Powers, 1830–1890

10. Per Capita GNP of the European Great Powers, 1830–1890

11. Military Expenditures of the Powers in the Crimean War

12. Total Population of the Powers, 1890–1938

13. Urban Population of the Powers and as Percentage of the Total Population, 1890–1938

14. Per Capita Levels of Industrialization, 1880–1938

15. Iron/Steel Production of the Powers, 1890–1938

16. Energy Consumption of the Powers, 1890–1938

17. Total Industrial Potential of the Powers in Relative Perspective, 1880–1938

18. Relative Shares of World Manufacturing Output, 1880–1938

19. Military and Naval Personnel of the Powers, 1880–1914

20. Warship Tonnage of the Powers, 1880–1914

21. National Income, Population, and per Capita Income of the Powers in 1914

22. Industrial/Technological Comparisons of the 1914 Alliances

23. U.K. Munitions Production, 1914–1918

24. Industrial/Technological Comparisons with the United States but Without Russia

25. War Expenditure and Total Mobilized Forces, 1914–1919

26. World Indices of Manufacturing Production, 1913–1925

27. Defense Expenditures of the Great Powers, 1930–1938

28. Annual Indices of Manufacturing Production, 1913–1938

29. Aircraft Production of the Powers, 1932–1939

30. Shares of World Manufacturing Output, 1929–1938

31. National Income of the Powers in 1937 and Percentage Spent on Defense

32. Relative War Potential of the Powers in 1937

33. Tank Production in 1944

34. Aircraft Production of the Powers, 1939–1945

35. Armaments Production of the Powers, 1940–1943

36. Total GNP and per Capita GNP of the Powers in 1950

37. Defense Expenditures of the Powers, 1948–1970

38. Nuclear Delivery Vehicles of the Powers, 1974

39. Production of World Manufacturing Industries, 1830–1980

40. Volume of World Trade, 1850–1971

41. Percentage Increases in World Production, 1948–1968

42. Average Annual Rate of Growth of Output per Capita, 1948–1962

43. Shares of Gross World Product, 1960–1980

44. Population, GNP per Capita, and GNP in 1980

45. Growth in Real GNP, 1979–1983

46. Kilos of Coal Equivalent and Steel Used to Produce $1,000 of GDP in 1979–1980

47. Estimated Strategic Nuclear Warheads

48. NATO and Warsaw Pact Naval Strengths

49. U.S. Federal Deficit, Debt, and Interest, 1980–1985

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