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* TOTAL STARS = number of STARS cases out of the number of total cases (1A has 3 out of 65 cases; 1B has 24 out of 371 cases, etc.)

Notes on the Compendium Categories

1. Status of Target:
   In many cases, the target qualified for more than one category. Robert Kennedy was a Member of Congress, a national figure (presidential candidate), and a media celebrity. His assassination likely arose from being a presidential candidate; however, we counted him as a Member of Congress. Governor John Connolly of Texas was hit by gunfire as the result of riding in the car with President Kennedy, not because he was targeted as a governor, so his shooting in the motorcade in Dallas is not listed as a separate incident.
   
2. Injury:
   There have been incidents in which the targets sustained injury and chose not to report it, or minimized the seriousness of injuries. Likewise, injuries have in some cases been exaggerated by targets and their advisors for political or PR benefit. When we could not be certain about the extent of injuries, we followed the version of events most frequently reported. If there was insufficient information to draw any reliable conclusions, we pointed out inconsistencies and controversies, or deleted the case entirely. Hence, there are some entire incidents intentionally left out.
   
3. Assailants:
   There are incidents in which the number of assailants is not known. If an al-Qaeda suicide bomber walked up and exploded a bomb, we counted one assailant, though it's clear that more than one person was involved in such things as making of the bombs, transportation, and even sometimes assisting the bomber at the scene of the attack. If a terrorist shot a target and then escaped on the back of a motorcycle, we counted two assailants. What we sought to answer was, in effect: "How many bad guys did the protectors on the scene face?" If a bomb goes off when a target drives by, we count that as one attacker, unless reports specifically identify others (e.g., "three men were seen fleeing"). In some cases, we had to deduce the number of assailants on the basis of injuries to the target. For example, an incident in which a target is shot once in the head might be presumed to involve one assailant. Many of the attacks outside the US involved attackers who got away from the scene entirely, and in those instances, it is, of course, difficult to estimate numbers.
   
4. Weapon:
   In a few instances, we had to guess whether the weapon was a handgun or shoulder weapon, however we feel confident about the total number of cases placed into the categories of firearms, bombs, knives, etc. With incidents in which assailants threw grenades and also fired weapons, we tried to determine which weapon caused the injury or death. In some cases it was necessary to select from among more than one weapon when counting cases in the analysis. For example, in the 1998 attack on Eduard Shevardnadze, his motorcade came under attack by gunmen armed with a grenade launcher and machine guns. The front of his car was badly damaged when it was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade. Though the car was also struck by gunfire, in our analysis we counted the primary weapon (the one doing most damage) as "anti-tank weapon." Similarly, though Sadat was attacked by firearm and grenade, the mortal injuries were caused by bullets.
   
5. Range:
   Range refers to the distance between attacker and target, and applies mostly to firearms attacks. Some news reports say an attack occurred at close range or point blank range, but most don't provide specific range information. Accordingly, in cases offering limited source material, we made deductions based upon the attack situation. For example, sniper attacks can be assumed to have been launched from greater than 25 feet, and an attack from a motorcycle that drives up to the target's car can be assumed to have been launched from less than 25 feet.
   
6. Duration:
   Though printed media reports rarely address the issue of duration, there is often definitive information (video or film of an incident, witness reports, police reports, court summaries, etc). In cases offering no decisive source material and yet there was a basis for deduction, we estimated. For example, if there was one shot fired at a target surrounded by bodyguards, we feel comfortable counting the attack as having occurred in less than 5 seconds. Incidents in which there were several gunmen and many rounds fired, or a gun battle, might be counted as having occurred over more than 5 seconds. In whatever way one might interpret the information, attacks that went on for more than one minute are very rare. One example is the attack on Truman at Blair House, and another is the attack on Sadat, which lasted several minutes, even though Sadat was mortally wounded in the first few seconds. Throughout the Compendium cases and analysis, it emerges that a minute is an eternity in protective work. Clearly, a foundational result of this Compendium is that most (more than 80%) successful attacks in the US are over in less than 5 seconds.
   
7. Situation:
   In the conclusions for this category, we describe the numbers of attacks near homes and offices, as well as attacks in or around cars. In many cases a report said the protectee was shot in his front yard or outside his office. It's possible he was moving to or from his car, but unless that information was specifically available, it's not counted as a car-related incident. Similarly, many attacks occurred while the protectee was in his car, and happened also to be outside his home or workplace. There is, accordingly, some overlap when it comes to location and situation, and we've applied our best judgment when selecting the category for each case.
   

"The dance of battle is always played to the same impatient rhythm. What begins in a surge of violent motion is always reduced to the perfectly still."

Sun Tzu

Conclusions

Arising From Analysis of the Statistics

Successful Attacks Within the U.S.

(The cases analyzed for this category appear in
Section 1A
.)

Number:
We analyzed 65 attacks in which a public figure was killed or injured within the United States. (Not all chose to have protectors with them.)

Status of Target:
These 65 incidents involved 26% movie/sports/media celebrities; 25% court officials; 18% other national figures; 9% state, county, or local officials; 8% business executives; 6% other government officials; 5% members of Congress; 3% heads of state. Considering all attacks, 48% of the targets were politicians/government officials.

Mortality:
65% of the targets were killed, and 35% were injured.

Assailants:
86% involved a single assailant, 14% involved more than one assailant.

Weapon:
49% involved handguns, 29% involved long guns (rifle, assault weapon, submachine gun), 15% involved explosive devices (bombs, rockets, etc.), 5% involved knives or edged weapons, and 2% involved other weapons (fists). Combining handguns and long guns, 78% of the attacks involved firearms. Of the 10 explosive devices, 70% were delivered through the mail.

Range:
In the incidents involving firearms, 76% occurred at close range (fewer than 25 feet), and only 24% were launched from more than 25 feet. The longest range was 263 feet.

Duration:
In the incidents involving firearms and knives, the overwhelming majority of the attacks, 85%, were over within five seconds, and 15% of the attacks lasted longer than five seconds.

Situation:
51% of the attacks were carried out indoors, and 49% occurred outdoors. In addition, 57% of the attacks occurred at the target's home or office, 28% occurred while the target was moving to or from a vehicle or a building (arrivals and departures), and 14% occurred while the target was seated in or riding in a car. Attacks in or around vehicles, plus arrival/departure situations, accounted for 42% of the attacks.

STARS:
In only 5% of the cases was it clear that some benefit arose from protector action or strategies during the attack. Among these few cases in which protector actions or strategies made an important and favorable influence on safety, the benefit arose about a third of the time from protector action after the incident. Approximately two-thirds of the time, the benefit resulted from direct protector action at the scene of the incident.

Conclusion:
Recent attacks on public figures within the United States, in which the target was killed or injured, have resulted in more deaths than injuries. The most targeted groups were movie/sports/media celebrities, followed by court officials, and other national figures. Targets were most often attacked by a single male assailant using a firearm. The preferred weapon was a handgun and the attack was most often launched from fewer than 25 feet. Nearly all of the attacks were over in less than five seconds. Half of the attacks occurred indoors and half outdoors. More than half of the attacks were carried out at the target's home or office. The most dangerous situations are when the target is riding in a car, or moving between a car and building, referred to as "arrival/departure situations."

Successful Attacks Outside the U.S.

(The cases analyzed for this category appear in
Section 1B
.)

Number:
We analyzed 371 attacks in which a public figure was killed or injured outside the United States. (Not all chose to have protectors with them.)

Status of Target:
The 371 incidents involved 25% other government officials; 21% other national figures; 14% state, county, or local officials; 13% heads of state; 12% members of Congress/Parliament; 9% court officials; 5% business executives; and 2% movie/sports/media celebrities. Considering all attacks in this category, 72% of the targets were politicians/government officials.

Mortality:
74% of the targets were killed, and 26% were injured.

Assailants:
59% involved more than one assailant and 41% involved a single assailant.

Weapon:
46% involved long guns (rifle, assault weapon, submachine gun); 27% involved explosive devices (bombs, rockets, etc.), 20% involved handguns, 5% involved knives or edged weapons, and 1% involved other weapons (3 poison, 2 blunt instruments). Combining handguns and long guns, 66% of the attacks involved firearms.

Range:
In the 245 incidents involving firearms and rockets, 71% occurred at close range (fewer than 25 feet), and only 29% were launched from more than 25 feet.

Duration:
In the 265 incidents involving firearms, knives, and blunt instruments, 71% of the attacks were over within five seconds, and 29% of the attacks lasted longer than five seconds.

Situation:
82% occurred outdoors, and 18% of the attacks were carried out indoors. In addition, 47% occurred while the target was seated in or riding in a car, 37% of the attacks occurred at the target's home or office, and 18% occurred while the target was moving to or from a vehicle or a building (arrivals and departures). Attacks in or around vehicles, plus arrival/departure situations, accounted for 66% of the attacks.

STARS:
In only 7% of the cases was it clear that some benefit arose from protector action or strategies during the attack. Among these few cases in which protector actions or strategies clearly had an important and favorable influence on safety, the benefit arose approximately 46% of the time from direct protector action at the scene of the incident, and 54% of the time, the benefit was the result of protective strategies or resources at the scene.

Conclusion:
Recent attacks on public figures outside the United States, in which the target was killed or injured, have resulted in many more deaths than injuries. The most targeted groups were lesser government officials (such as ambassadors and cabinet ministers), followed by national leaders (such as former officials, political candidates, and religious leaders). Note that these targets are highly recognized, but less protected than heads of state. Accordingly, successful attacks are more likely, and there is less risk for attackers. Targets in this category (famous but with less protection than heads of state) bring all the benefits in terms of political statement and media attention with less risk and greater likelihood of success.

Targets outside the United States were most often attacked by multiple assailants, using a firearm. The preferred weapon was the long gun (automatic weapons, etc.) and the attack was nearly always launched at fewer than 25 feet. The majority of the attacks were over in less than five seconds. Unlike attacks in the U.S., attacks outside the U.S. were conducted outdoors far more often than indoors. More than one third of the attacks were carried out at the target's home or office. The most dangerous situations are when the target was riding in a car, or moving between a car and a building, referred to as "arrival/departure situations."

Successful Attacks Worldwide

Number:
We analyzed 436 attacks in which a public figure was killed or injured somewhere in the world. (Not all chose to have protectors with them.)

Status of Target:
The 436 incidents involved 22% other government officials; 21% other national figures; 13% state, county, or local officials; 11% heads of state; 11% court officials; 11% members of Congress or Parliament; 6% business executives; 5% movie/sports/media celebrities. Considering all government positions, 68% of the targets were politicians/government officials.

Mortality:
73% of the targets were killed, and 27% were injured.

Assailants:
52% involved more than one assailant, and 48% involved a single assailant.

Weapon:
44% involved long guns (rifle, assault weapon, submachine gun); 25% involved explosive devices (bombs, rockets, etc.); 24% involved handguns; 5% involved knives or edged weapons, and 1% involved other weapons (3 poison, 2 blunt instrument, and 1 fists). Combining handguns and long guns, 68% of the attacks involved firearms.