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Failed, Aborted, or Prevented Incidents Worldwide

(Analysis of all cases appearing in
Section 1E
.)

"We were lucky" might be the most commonly given reason to explain security personnel foiled a planned attack. But an analysis of these incidents indicates that luck is rarely the primary reason.

Number:
We analyzed 176 incidents in which a public figure was targeted for attack, and either sound security measures or other influences prevented the attack from being carried out.

Status of Target:
The status of the targeted individuals included 55% heads of state (president, prime minister, Pope, king, etc.); 18% other governmental officials (diplomat, minister, vice president, etc.); 9% other national figures (prince, princess, former official, etc.); 7% state and local officials (governor or mayor); 6% court officials (judge or prosecutor); 2% movie/sports/media celebrities; 1% members of Congress or Parliament; and 1% business executives. In 87% of the incidents, the target was a government official.

STARS:
In 26% of the cases it was clear that some benefit arose from protector action or strategies during the attack. Among these few cases in which protector actions or strategies clearly had an important and favorable influence on safety, the benefit arose approximately 4% of the time from protector action after the incident. Approximately 2% of the time, benefit resulted from direct protector action at the scene of the incident, and 93% of the time, the benefit was the result of protective strategies or resources at the scene (e.g., effective positioning, an armored car, advance arrangements, logistics, weapons detection, deterrence).

Conclusion:
It is obvious from many of the incidents that intelligence played a key role in preventing the attack. In some cases, undercover agents or informants had infiltrated a group of conspirators. In examining the 176 incidents listed, 89% of the incidents were prevented by security personnel. In addition, 35% of the security actions (intelligence, vigilance, advance) foiled a planned attack at the target's location. Action by police and investigative agencies also accounted for many preventions. In those incidents that failed due to actions by security personnel, intelligence played the primary role in foiling 56% of the planned attacks. Vigilance (such as preventing a weapon from being brought into an event or location where the target was expected to be) can be listed as the primary reason on 31% of the prevented attacks. Advance preparations (such as finding a bomb during a sweep prior to the target's arrival) were the apparent reason for the failure in 13% of the attacks. In only 12% of the incidents was luck (such as a bomb failing to explode) the apparent reason that an attack failed.

Kidnapping

(The cases analyzed for this category appear in
Section 1F
.)

Number:
We analyzed 59 incidents in which a public figure was the target of kidnappers.

Status of Target:
The status of the targeted individuals included 42% other governmental officials (diplomat, minister, vice president, etc.); 30.5% business executives; 8% other national figures (prince, princess, former official, etc.); 7% members of Congress or Parliament; 5% court officials (judge or prosecutor); 5% local officials (governor, mayor, town counselor); 2% media celebrities; and no heads of state (president, prime minister, Pope, king, etc.). Politicians/government officials accounted for 59% of the kidnappings.

Mortality:
54% were released or escaped, and 46% of the targets were killed.

Assailants:
86% of the victims were kidnapped by more than one assailant, and 14% were kidnapped by a single individual. In at least 8% of cases, the kidnappers were disguised in uniforms (police, military, staff).

Weapons:
The assailants were likely armed with shoulder weapons (usually automatic weapons) in 61% of the cases; the assailants were armed with at least a handgun in 37% of the cases; and in 2% of the cases the weapon used is unknown.

Situation:
66% of the victims were kidnapped while in or around their vehicle (in three cases, aboard an airplane); and 47% were kidnapped from their home or office.

Conclusion:
In the cases examined, kidnappers targeted lower-level prominent government officials (such as ambassadors), followed by businessmen and CEOs. In the cases examined, kidnap victims were released or escaped slightly more often than they were killed. In the majority of cases, more than one assailant was involved in the kidnapping. In nearly every case, the kidnappers were armed with firearms, often automatic weapons. In the cases examined, the most likely location at which kidnappers would strike was while the victim was riding in a vehicle, followed by at home or the office.

All Attempted Intentional Harm

Number:
In the sections involving both successful and failed attacks on public figures worldwide, we analyzed 626 attacks; 86% occurred outside the United States, and 14% occurred within the United States.

Status of Target:
The 626 attacks involved 23% other government officials; 21% heads of state; 17% other national figures (prince, princess, former official, etc.); 13% state or local officials (governor, mayor, town counselor); 10% members of Congress/Parliament; 8% court officials (judge or prosecutor); 4% business executives; and 4% movie/sports/media celebrities. Politicians/government officials accounted for 75% of the attacks.

Mortality:
51% of the targets were killed, 30% were unharmed, and 19% were injured. Combining the killed and wounded numbers, 70% of the attacks succeeded in harming the target. In all U.S. attacks, 47% of the targets were killed, 28% were unharmed, and 26% were wounded. The success of U.S. attacks was slightly higher with 72% of the targets killed or wounded.

Assailants:
51% involved a single assailant, and 49% involved more than one assailant. In all U.S. attacks, 87% involved a single assailant, and 13% involved more than one assailant.

Weapon:
41% involved long guns (rifle, assault weapon, submachine gun), 31% involved explosive devices (bombs, rockets, etc.), 20% involved handguns, 5% involved knives or edged weapons, and 3% involved other weapons (5 car/truck/plane; 5 poison/ricin; 2 mobs; 2 blunt instrument; 1 booby-trap; 1 fist). Only 3% of the weapons were delivered through the mail. Combining handguns and long guns, 61% of the attacks involved firearms. In all U.S. attacks, 47% involved handguns, 24% involved long guns, 18% involved explosive devices, 6% involved knives, and 6% involved other weapons. Combining handguns and long guns, 71% involved firearms. 13% of the weapons were delivered through the mail.

Range:
In the 382 attacks involving firearms and rockets, 59% occurred at close range (fewer than 25 feet), and 41% were launched from more than 25 feet. In all U.S. attacks, 67% occurred at close range, and 33% were launched from more than 25 feet.

Duration:
In the 410 attacks involving firearms, knives, and blunt instruments, 66% of the attacks were over within five seconds, and 34% of the attacks lasted longer than five seconds. In all U.S. attacks, 81% were over within five seconds, and 19% lasted longer than five seconds.

Situation:
80% occurred outdoors, and 20% were carried out indoors. In addition, 43% occurred while the target was seated in or riding in a vehicle, and 15% occurred while the target was moving to or from a vehicle or a building (arrivals and departures). Attacks in or around vehicles, including arrival/departure situations, accounted for 58% of the attacks. Finally, 39% of the attacks occurred at the target's home or office. In all U.S. attacks, 51% were carried out indoors, and 49% occurred outdoors. In addition, 21% occurred during arrival/departure situations, and 11% occurred while the target was riding in a vehicle. Combining these numbers, 32% occurred in or around vehicles. In all U.S. attacks, 63% occurred at the target's home or office.

STARS:
In 22% of the cases was it clear that some benefit arose from protector action or strategies during the attack. Among these few cases in which protector actions or strategies clearly had an important and favorable influence on safety, the benefit arose approximately 2% of the time from protector action after the incident. Approximately 37% of the time, benefit resulted from direct protector action at the scene of the incident, and 61% of the time, the benefit was the result of protective strategies or resources at the scene (e.g., effective positioning, an armored car, advance arrangements, logistics, weapons detection, deterrence).

Conclusion:
Modern-age attacks on public figures around the world have resulted in many more deaths than injuries. The most targeted groups were lesser government officials (such as ambassadors and cabinet ministers), followed by heads of state, and other national leaders (such as former officials, political candidates, and religious leaders). The targets were attacked by single assailants as often as multiple assailants. The preferred weapon was the long gun (automatic weapons, etc.) and the attacks were most often launched from less than 25 feet. Bodyguards had little time to react, since most of the attacks were over in less than five seconds. The attacks were usually carried out outdoors. More than a third of the attacks were carried out at the target's home or office. The most dangerous situations were while the target was riding in a car, or moving to or from a car or building, referred to as "arrival/departure situations."

Differences Between Foreign and Domestic Attacks:
There were substantial differences between attacks carried out in the United States and those abroad. Nearly all of the U.S. attacks involved a lone assailant, while most foreign attacks involved multiple assailants. Many of the lone foreign assailants were members of a terrorist group (such as suicide bombers), but few U.S. assailants were part of a conspiracy. Attacks in the U.S. utilized far more handguns, requiring closer distances, but ensuring a slightly higher rate of success in killing or injuring the target. More U.S. attacks, perhaps due to closer ranges, were over in fewer than five seconds. Since more foreign attacks utilized automatic weapons and explosive devices -- and most terrorists are more intent on escaping than their American counterparts -- many of these attacks involved longer ranges and more time to complete. Foreign attacks more often occurred outdoors, while most U.S. attacks occurred indoors. The most deadly situation for foreign targets was while they were in or around their vehicles. While U.S. targets were also vulnerable in these situations, it was to a lesser extent. In the U.S., the target's home or office was the attack site more frequently than in foreign countries.

Unintentional Harm: Accidents, Sudden Illness/Medical Emergency, and Wrong Place/Wrong Time (Crime)

(Analysis of all cases appearing in
Sections 2A
,
2B
, and
2C
.)

Number of incidents:
Of the 209 incidents we examined in this section, 130 incidents were accidents or pitfalls, 42 incidents were sudden illness or other medical emergency, and in 37 incidents the protectee was the victim of a crime.

Status of Target:
The 209 incidents involved 25% heads of state; 22% state or local officials; 18% other government officials; 16% other national figures; 8% lawmakers; 5% movie/sports/media celebrities; 3% judicial officials; and 2% business executives.

Mortality:
43% of the victims were injured or hospitalized, and 27% of the victims were killed or died. In 38.5% of the incidents involving accidents and crime, the victim was uninjured. In the incidents involving accidents and crime, 38% were not injured, 32% were injured, and 30% were killed.

In the 130 incidents involving accidents, 36% of the victims were uninjured, 35% of the victims were injured, and 29% of the victims were killed. Aircraft accidents accounted for 55% of the deaths. Accidents not involving motor vehicles or aircraft -- consisting mostly of falls -- accounted for 59% injuries. Combined, deaths in aircraft and auto accidents accounted for 87% of the deaths.

In the 42 incidents involving sudden illness, 86% survived the emergency, and 14% died. At least 45% involved emergencies in which an AED (Automatic External Defibrillator) was needed.

In the 37 incidents involving criminal activity, 46% escaped harm, 30% were killed, and 24% were injured. Combining the first two figures, 54% of the crime victims were either killed or injured.

Nature of Accidents:
Of the 130 accidents, 38% involved aircraft emergencies, 27% involved auto accidents, 22% involved incidents of falling or other pitfalls, and 13% involved other emergencies (6 falling object, 5 fire, 1 water emergency, 1 explosion, and 1 lightning strike, 1 cold temperature death, 1 trapped on an elevator, 1 gas poisoning). Accidents which occurred while traveling in vehicles and aircraft accounted for 65% of the incidents, and injury and death occurred in 63% of those occasions. (These numbers include one incident where a victim was struck by a car while riding a bicycle, and one case where the victim was on foot and struck by a vehicle.)

Conclusion:
In relation to unintentional injuries, public figures are at greatest risk while traveling in vehicles and aircraft. Bodyguards often had almost no control over the aircraft emergencies, since the flight crew was in charge. But bodyguards almost always perform the driving function in vehicles, and often put the protectee at risk due to poor reactions, inattention, excessive speed for conditions, or poor vehicle maintenance. In most cases of sudden illness, the victim received quick medical attention and survived the incident. Nearly half of the medical emergencies involved apparent heart attacks in which an AED device was needed. The victim was injured or killed in over half of the instances in which they were the victims of crime. In all cases of unintentional injury, the bodyguard's ability to treat the injuries and quickly get the victim to the closest medical facility is critical to the protectee's survival.