The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (133 page)

113.
Ibid., passim.

114.
“Chirac Is Pledged to Stick with NATO and Bonn,”
New York Times
, April 6, 1986, “The Week in Review” section p. 2.

115.
H. Schmidt,
A Grand Strategy for the West
(New Haven, Conn., 1985), pp. 41–43, 55–57. See also J. P. Pigasse,
Le bouclier d’Europe
(Paris, 1982).

116.
See the discussion in Yost, “Radical Change in French Defense Policy”; as well as idem,
France and Conventional Defense in Central Europe
(Boulder, Colo., 1985).

117.
“The French are Ready to Cross the Rhine,”
Economist
, July 13, 1985, pp. 43–44; “French Defence: Count on Us,”
Economist
, Oct. 25, 1986, pp. 50–51.

118.
P. Stares, “The Modernization of the French Strategic Nuclear Force,”
Journal of the Royal United Services Institute
, vol. 125, no. 4 (December 1980), p. 37.

119.
See again Laird, “French Strategic Dilemma,” passim; and P. Lellouche, “France and the Euromissiles,”
Foreign Affairs
, Winter 1983–84, pp. 318–34.

120.
See the analysis in L. Kolakowski,
Main Currents of Marxism
, vol. 1,
The Founders
(Oxford, 1981 edn.), ch. 13, “The Contradictions of Capital”; and Engels’s discussion of contradictions in “Socialism: Utopian and Scientific,” in
The Essential Left
(London, 1960), pp. 130ff.

121.
“Excerpts from Gorbachev’s Speech to the Party,”
New York Times
, Feb. 26, 1986. See also “Making Mr. Gorbachev Frown,”
Economist
, March 8, 1986, p. 67; S. Bialer, “The Harsh Decade: Soviet Policies in the 1980s,”
Foreign Affairs
, vol. 59, no. 5 (Summer 1981), pp. 999–1020.

122.
Brown et al.,
State of the World, 1986
, pp. 14–19; “Focus: Food,”
Economist
, April 12, 1986, p. 107.

123.
M. I. Goldman,
USSR in Crisis: The Failure of an Economic System
(New York, 1983), p. 86. For further analyses, see Bergson and Levine (eds.),
Soviet Economy: Toward the Year 2000
, chs. 4–5. How swiftly (relatively) the USSR’s position has been worsened can be seen by rereading the rosier assessment of the gap between it and the United States being closed by the year 2000 in Larson’s very sober
Soviet-American Rivalry
(written in 1976–77?), p. 272.

124.
As reported in “Soviet Is Facing Sixth Poor Harvest in a Row,”
New York Times
, Aug. 28, 1985, pp. Al, D17. More generally, R. E. M. Mellor,
The Soviet Union and Its Geographical Problems
(London, 1982); Larson,
Soviet-American Rivalry
, pp. 17ff.

125.
For what follows, see Hosking,
History of the Soviet Union
, pp. 392ff; J. R. Millar, “The Prospects for Soviet Agriculture,” in M. Bornstein (ed.),
The Soviet Economy: Continuity and Change
(Boulder, Colo., 1981), pp. 273–91 (more optimistic than most); Goldman,
USSR in Crisis, ch
. 3.

126.
“The Soviet Economy,”
New York Times
, March 15, 1985, pp. Al, A6.

127.
Goldman,
USSR in Crisis
, p. 81.

128.
Ibid., p. 83; and the remarks in Nove,
Economic History of the USSR
, pp. 362ff.

129.
Reprinted from Brown et al.,
State of the World
, 1986, p. 18.

130.
See again Goldman,
USSR in Crisis
, pp. 70–71; and, more broadly, R. W. Tucker, “Swollen State, Spent Society: Stalin’s Legacy to Brezhnev’s Russia,”
Foreign Affairs
, vol. 60, no. 2 (Winter 1981–82), pp. 415ff.

131.
Brown et al.,
State of the World, 1986
, p. 18.

132.
Ibid., p. 11.

133.
See the comparative figures in CIA,
Handbook of Economic Statistics, 1984
, pp. 28–30.

134.
Goldman,
USSR in Crisis
, p. 40, has some remarkable figures on that inefficiency. See also the extremely thoughtful piece by J. S. Berliner, “Planning and Management,” in Bergson and Levine (eds.),
Soviet Economy: Toward the Year 2000
, pp. 350–89.

135.
The phrase comes from Daniels,
Russia: The Roots of Confrontation
, p. 289.

136.
Taken from “Inputs Misused,”
Economist
, July 6, 1985, p. 12, which (itself employing the words “used to produce
even an alleged
$1,000-worth of GDP”) clearly suspects that the
real
figures could be worse.

137.
This is best discussed in M. I. Goldman,
The Enigma of Soviet Petroleum: Half-Full or Half-Empty
(London, 1980), passim; but see also L. Silk, “Soviet Oil Troubles,”
New York Times
, June 5, 1985, p. D2.

138.
“Russia Drills Less Oil, OPEC Keeps It Cheap,”
Economist
, June 8, 1985, p. 65.

139.
Economist
, May 3, 1986, pp. 55–57; more generally, see R. W. Campbell, “Energy,” in Bergson and Levine (eds.),
Soviet Economy: Toward the Year 2000
, pp. 191ff.

140.
Dibb,
Soviet Union: The Incomplete Superpower
, p. 93.

141.
Campbell, “Energy,” pp. 213–14, in Bergson and Levine (eds.),
Soviet Economy: Toward the Year 2000;
see also L. Dienes, “An Energy Crunch Ahead in the Soviet Union?” in Bornstein (ed.),
Soviet Economy
, pp. 313–43.

142.
See below, pp. 500–502.

143.
Goldman, “A Low-Tech Economy at Home,”
New York Times
, Feb. 19, 1984, business section, p. 2; and the interesting details in R. Amann and J. Cooper (eds.),
Industrial Innovation in the Soviet Union
(New Haven, Conn., 1982).

144.
“Losing Battle,”
Wall Street Journal
, July 25, 1984.

145.
Apart from Goldman,
USSR in Crisis
, p. 131, see R. Amann et al. (eds.),
The Technological Level of Soviet Industry
(New Haven, Conn., 1977).

146.
Goldman,
USSR in Crisis, ch
. 6; “Shadows over Comecon,”
Economist
, May 29, 1982, pp. 84–85; Comecon Survey,
Economist
, April 20, 1985. pp. 3–18.

147.
See again Drucker, “Changed World Economy,” passim; “Oil’s Decline Seen Curbing Soviet Plans,”
New York Times
, March 10, 1986; “East European Trade,”
Economist
, Oct. 26, 1985, p. 119. The implications for eastern Europe are also analyzed in T. Gustafson, “Energy and the Soviet Union,”
International Security
, vol. 6, no. 3 (Winter 1981–82), pp. 65–89.

148.
M. Feshbach, “Population and Labor Force,” in Bergson and Levine (eds.),
Soviet Economy: Toward the Year 2000
, p. 79. See also Goldman,
USSR in Crisis
, pp. lOOff; and T. J. Colton,
The Dilemma of Reform in the Soviet Union
(New York, 1984), pp. 15ff.

149.
“Sick Men of Europe,”
Economist
, March 22, 1986, p. 53.

150.
Dibb,
Soviet Union: The Incomplete Superpower
, pp. 92–93.

151.
Feshbach, “Population and Labor Force,” in Bergson and Levine (eds.),
Soviet Economy: Toward the Year 2000
, passim.

152.
See the argument in J. W. Kiser, “How the Arms Race Really Helps Moscow,”
Foreign Policy
, no. 60 (Fall 1985), pp. 40–51.

153.
Munting,
Economic Development of the USSR
, p. 208.

154.
“Gorbachev’s Plans: Westerners See a Lot of Zeal, but Little Basic Change,”
New York Times
, Feb. 23, 1986, p. 16; “Russia Under Gorbachev,”
Economist
, Nov. 16, 1985, p. 21.

155.
“The Soviet Economy,”
New York Times
, March 15, 1985, pp. Al, A6, quoting Leonard Silk; Colton,
Dilemma of Reform in the Soviet Union, ch
. 3; Daniels,
Russia: The Roots of Confrontation
, pp. 273ff; J. F. Hough and M. Fainsod,
How the Soviet Union Is Governed
(Cambridge, Mass., 1979).

156.
This is best covered by F. D. Holzman’s articles “Are the Soviets Really Out-spending the U.S. on Defense?”
International Security
, vol. 4, no. 4 (Spring 1980), pp. 86–104, and “Soviet Military Spending: Assessing the Numbers Game,”
International Security
, vol. 6, no. 4 (Spring 1982), pp. 78–101; as well as idem,
Financial Checks on Soviet Defense Expenditures
(Lexington, Mass., 1975). See also Holloway,
Soviet Union and the Arms Race
, pp. 114ff; Dibb,
Soviet Union: The Incomplete Superpower
, pp. 80ff.

157.
This point is made both by Colton,
Dilemma of Reform in the Soviet Union
, p. 91; and Bond and Levine, “An Overview,” in Bergson and Levine (eds.),
Soviet Economy: Toward the Year 2000
, pp. 19–21.

158.
Ibid., p. 20, the source of this quotation; see also; “Can Andropov Control His Generals?”
Economist
, Aug. 6, 1983, pp. 33–35.

159.
L. H. Gelb, “A Common Desire for Guns and Butter,”
New York Times
, Nov. 10, 1985, “The Week in Review” section, p. 2.

160.
See the table in Holloway,
Soviet Union and the Arms Race
, p. 114; and the discussion in
Military Balance 1985–86
, pp. 17–20; Holzman, “Soviet Military Spending,” passim; W. T. Lee,
The Estimation of Soviet Defense Expenditures 1955–75
(New York, 1977), passim; G. Adams, “Moscow’s Military Costs,”
New York Times
, Jan. 10, 1984, p. A23.

161.
For details, one can consult the somewhat bloodcurdling annual publication of the U.S. Defense Department
Soviet Military Power
, and the Committee on the Present Danger’s
Can America Catch Up?
—views contested by such critics as T. Gervasi,
The Myth of Soviet Military Supremacy
(New York, 1986), and A. Cockburn,
The Threat: Inside the Soviet Military Machine
(New York, 1984 edn.). For details presented nonpolemically, see the annual
Military Balance
, and the annual report by SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute). A good general work is J. Steele,
Soviet Power
(New York, 1984), but see also Dibb,
Soviet Union: The Incomplete Superpower;
and Holloway,
Soviet Union and the Arms Race
, as well as the references following.

162.
A. Amalrik,
Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984?
(New York, 1970). See also M. Garder,
L’Agonie du régime en Russie soviétique
(Paris, 1966), and the subsequent debate in the journal
Problems of Communism;
and Colton,
Dilemma of Reform in the Soviet Union
, passim.

163.
See the comparative tables in Bergson, “Technological Progress,” in Bergson and Levine (eds.),
Soviet Economy: Toward the Year 2000
, pp. 51ff; Rostow,
World Economy
, p. 434; Holloway,
Soviet Union and the Arms Race
, pp. 134ff.

164.
“Soviet Arms: Their Quality Is Upgraded,”
New York Times
, Feb. 12, 1984; Cockburn,
The Threat
, pp. 455–56.

165.
Alex Gliksman, “Behind Moscow’s Fear of ‘Star Wars,’ ”
New York Times
, Feb. 13, 1986.

166.
Quoted in Flora Lewis, “Soviet SDI Fears,”
New York Times
, March 6, 1986, p. A27.

167.
Dibb,
Soviet Union: The Incomplete Superpower
, pp. 5 Iff; J. Kazokins, “Nationality in the Soviet Army,”
Journal of the Royal United Services Institute for Defense Studies
, vol. 130, no. 4 (December 1985), pp. 27–34. For a rosier picture,
E. Jones, “Manning the Soviet Military,”
International Security
, vol. 7, no. 1 (Summer 1982), pp. 105–31.