The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (130 page)

204.
Smith et al., p. 18; C. Johnson,
MITI and the Japanese Miracle
(Stanford, Calif., 1982), passim.

205.
Vogel,
Japan as Number One
, pp. 9–10 (my emphasis). Allen,
A Short Economic History of Modern Japan
, pt. 2, is very valuable here. The automobile statistics come from
The Economist
, November 2, 1985, p. 111.

206.
Most of the writings upon China after 1945 seem to have focused upon Mao or upon cultural/ideological issues, rather than its external policy: but there is Bell, “China and the International Order,” in Bull and Watson (eds.),
The Expansion of International Society
, pp. 255–67; H. Harding (ed.),
China’s Foreign Relations in the 1980s
(New Haven, Conn., 1984), espec. chs. 1 and 5–6; A. D. Barnett,
China and the Major Powers in East Asia
(Washington, D.C., 1977); M. Yahuda,
China’s Role in World Affairs
(New York, 1978); P. Van Ness,
Revolution and Chinese Foreign Policy
(Berkeley, Calif., 1971); and R. H. Solomon
(ed.),
The China Factor: Sino-American Relations and the Global Scene
(Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1981), with some very useful chapters.

207.
Bairoch, “International Industrialization Levels,” pp. 299, 302.

208.
Rostow,
World Economy
, pp. 525ff; and D. H. Perkins (ed.),
China’s Modern Economy in Historical Perspective
(Stanford, Calif., 1975), passim.

209.
Blackburn,
West and the World Since 1945
, p. 77.

210.
Ibid.; and Bairoch,
Economic Development of the Third World
, pp. 188ff, 201ff, which comments approvingly on the attention the Chinese gave to agriculture.

211.
“Correlates of War” print-out data for 1980.

212.
Bairoch, “International Industrialization Levels,” p. 304.

213.
D. H. Perkins, “The International Consequences of China’s Economic Development,” in Solomon (ed.),
China Factor
, pp. 114–136, is important here.

214.
Some of Europe’s dilemmas are discussed in DePorte,
Europe Between the Superpowers
, passim; J. R. Wegs,
Europe Since 1945
(New York, 1984, 2nd edn.), espec. chs. 8–15; S. Holt,
The Common Market: The Conflict of Theory and Practice
(London, 1967).

215.
Aldcroft,
European Economy 1914–1980
, p. 161.

216.
Ibid.; and see also Landes,
Unbound Prometheus, ch
. 7; Pollard,
Peaceful Conquest, ch
. 9; Maddison, “Economic Policy and Performance in Europe 1913–1970,” in Cipolla (ed.),
Fontana Economic History of Europe
, vol. 5, pt. 2, pp. 476ff. For the early period, there are detailed studies: M. M. Postan,
An Economic History of Western Europe, 1945–1964
(London, 1967); and A. S. Milward,
The Reconstruction of Western Europe, 1945–1951
(London, 1984).

217.
Aldcroft,
European Economy
, pp. 161–62.

218.
Oye et al. (eds.),
Eagle Defiant
, p. 8, and notes in Table 1–1.

219.
For this argument, see again Pollard,
Peaceful Conquest
, passim.

220.
Ibid., p. 305

221.
Ibid., p. 171.

222.
Aldcroft,
European Economy
, p. 161.

223.
See the data in Wegs,
Europe Since 1945, ch
. 9; A. S. Deaton, “The Structure of Demand 1920–1970,” in Cipolla (ed.),
Fontana Economic History of Europe
, vol. 5, pt. 1.

224.
Ricossa, “Italy, 1920–1970,” in Cipolla (ed.),
Fontana Economic History of Europe
, vol. 6, pt. 1, pp. 290ff; G. Scimone, “The Italian Miracle,” in J. Hennessy et al.,
Economic “Miracles”
(London, 1964); G. H. Hildebrand,
Growth and Structure in the Economy of Modern Italy
(Cambridge, Mass., 1965).

225.
See above, pp. 367–68.

226.
Porter,
Britain, Europe and the World, ch
. 5; Kennedy,
Realities behind Diplomacy
, chs. 7–8.

227.
The literature on Britain’s post-1945 relative economic decline is enormous. See,
inter alia
, Gamble,
Britain in Decline
, passim; Kirby,
Decline of British Economic Power Since 1870, ch
. 5; F. Blackaby (ed.),
De-industrialization
(London, 1979), passim; W. Beckerman (ed.),
Slow Growth in Britain: Causes and Consequences
(Oxford, 1979); J. Eatwell,
Whatever Happened to Britain?
(London, 1982), passim.

228.
Bairoch, “International Industrialization Levels,” p. 303.

229.
Wegs,
Europe Since 1945
, p. 161. The figures for world manufacturing production are from Bairoch, those for shares of world trade from Kirby,
Decline
, p. 149, Table 15.

230.
V. Berghahn,
Unternehmer und Politik in der Bundesrepublik
(Frankfurt, 1985), passim; K. Hardach,
The Political Economy of Germany in the Twentieth Century
(Berkeley, Calif., 1980), pp. 140ff.

231.
For fuller details, Hardach,
Political Economy of Germany
, pp. 178ff; L. Er-satisfied
account,
The Economics of Success
(Princeton, N.J., 1963), passim; Hardach, “Germany 1914–1970,” in Cipolla (ed.),
Fontana Economic History of Europe
, vol 6., pt. 1, pp. 217ff; Landes,
Unbound Prometheus
, pp. 502ff, 531ff; Balfour,
Adversaries
, pp. 122ff.

232.
Hardach, “Germany 1914–1970,” in Cipolla (ed.),
Fontana Economic History of Europe
, vol. 6, pt. 1, p. 221.

233.
Wegs,
Europe Since 1945
, p. 161.

234.
The Federal Republic’s diplomatic and security concerns, and the attitude of other Powers to them, are examined in DePorte,
Europe Between the Superpowers
, pp. 1180ff; C. M. Kelleher,
Germany and the Politics of Nuclear Weapons
(New York, 1975); W. F. Hanrieden,
West German Foreign Policy 1949–1963
(Stanford, Calif., 1967); Willis,
France, Germany and the New Europe
, passim; Calleo,
The German Problem Reconsidered
, pp. 16Iff; P. Windsor,
German Reunification
(London, 1969), passim; Kaiser,
German Foreign Policy in Transition
, passim; Gruner,
Die deutsche Frage
, pp. 176ff.

235.
Bairoch, “International Industrialization Levels,” p. 302.

236.
Fohlen, “France 1920–1970,” in Cipolla (ed.),
Fontana Economic History of Europe
, vol. 6, pt. 1, pp. lOOff; E. Malinraud,
La
Croissance française
(Paris, 1972), passim; M. Parodi,
L’économie et la société française de 1945 à 1970
(Paris, 1971); Caron,
Economic History of Modern France
, pp. 182ff; R. F. Kuisel,
Capitalism and the State in Modern France
(Cambridge, 1981), chs. 7–9; and Kindleberger, “The Postwar Resurgence of the French Economy,” in S. Hoffman (ed.),
In Search of France
(Cambridge, Mass., 1963).

237.
See again Kolodziej,
French International Policy Under de Gaulle and Pompidou: The Politics of Grandeur
.

238.
See the statistics in the CIA’s
Handbook of Economic Statistics, 1984
, pp. 16ff.

239.
See, for example, Hosking,
History of the Soviet Union
, appendix C (“Selected Indices of Industrial and Agricultural Production”), p. 483; Munting,
Economic Development of the USSR
, p. 133; Nove,
Economic History of the USSR
, pp. 340, 387; J. P. Nettl,
The Soviet Achievement
(London, 1967), ch. 6.

240.
Munting,
Economic Development of the USSR
, p. 133.

241.
The problems of Soviet agriculture have been the focus of massive attention in the scholarly literature; see, in particular, the useful essays 4 and 5 in Bergson and Levine (eds.),
Soviet Economy: Toward the Year 2000;
D. M. Schooner, “Soviet Agricultural Policies,” in
Soviet Economy in a Time of Change
(Washington, D.C., 1979; Papers, Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress), pp. 87–115; and Munting,
Economic Development of the USSR
, pp. 142ff, 160ff.

242.
CIA,
Handbook of Economic Statistics, 1984
, p. 27.

243.
Cipolla (ed.),
Fontana Economic History of Europe
, vol. 5, pt.
2
, pp. 476ff, and vol. 6, pt. 2, pp. 593ff; N. Spulber,
The State and Economic Development in Eastern Europe
(New York, 1966), passim; Kaser,
Comecon
, passim; and an excellent summary in Aldcroft,
European Economy 1914–1980, ch
. 6.

244.
Nove,
Economic History
, pp. 330ff, 363ff; Bergson and Levine (eds.),
Soviet Economy: Toward the Year 2000
, p. 148.

245.
Details in M. I. Goldman,
The Enigma of Soviet Petroleum
(London/Boston, 1980), which has a rosier view of the future of Russian oil production than the CIA, but acknowledges the problem of waste.

246.
Much of this will be discussed again in the final chapter, but see Bergson and Levine (eds.),
Soviet Economy: Toward the Year 2000
, espec. pp. 402ff; H. S. Rowen, “Living with a Sick Bear,”
National Interest
, no. 2 (Winter 1985–86), pp. 14–26; M. I. Goldman,
USSR in Crisis: The Failure of an Economic System
(New York, 1983); P. Dibb,
The Soviet Union: The Incomplete Super-power
(London, 1985), ch. 3; T. J. Colton,
The Dilemma of Reform in the Soviet Union
(New York, 1984), passim. For eastern Europe’s problems, see the “Cracks in the Soviet Empire?” issue
of International Security
, vol. 6, no. 3 (Winter 1981–82).

247.
Bairoch, “International Industrialization Levels,” p. 304.

248.
see Table 43 below; and cf. CIA,
Handbook of Economic Statistics, 1984
, p.
A
—which (being computed in U.S. dollars) will presumably have quite altered figures for 1987, because of the decline in the value of the American currency.

249.
Balfour,
Adversaries
, p. 204.

250.
Ibid., p. 193.

251.
L. Thurow, “America Among Equals,” in Ungar (ed.),
Estrangement
, pp. 159— 78; idem,
The Zero-Sum Game
(New York, 1980), passim, but espec. chs. 1 and 4; DeGrasse,
Military Expansion, Economic Decline
, espec. ch. 2.

252.
See, in particular, Grosser,
Western Alliance
, pp. 217ff; J. J. Servan-Schreiber,
The American Challenge
(Harmondsworth, Middlesex, 1969 edn.), espec. pt. 2; R. Barnet,
Global Reach
(New York, 1974), passim; S. Rolfe,
The International Corporation
(Paris, 1969); as well as Woodruff,
America’s Impact on the World, ch
. 4.

253.
Becker and Wells (ed.),
Economics and World Power
, chs. 7–8; D. Calleo,
The Imperious Economy
(Cambridge, Mass., 1982), passim; J. Gowa,
Closing the Gold Window: Domestic Politics and the End of Bretton Woods
(Ithaca, N.Y., 1983); G. Epstein, “The Triple Debt Crisis,”
World Policy Journal
, vol. 2, no. 4 (Fall 1985), pp. 628ff;
Economist
, October 5, 1985, “Monetary Reform” Survey, p. 11.

254.
Thurow, “America Among Equals,” in Ungar (ed.),
Estrangement
, p. 163.

255.
Idem,
Zero-Sum Society
, pp. 3–4. (The U.S. figures presumably looked better with the dollar’s rise, 1983–1985, and worsened again with the currency’s post-1985 decline.)

256.
Calleo, “Since 1961: American Power in a New World,” in Becker and Wells (eds.),
Economics and World Power
, pp. 391–93.