The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (118 page)

66.
Quoted in Kennedy,
Strategy and Diplomacy
, p. 157.

67.
See the charts for France, Great Britain, and Austria-Hungary’s “Relative Power” in C. F. Doran and W. Parsons, “War and the Cycle of Relative Power,”
American Political Science Review
, vol. 74 (1980), p. 956.

68.
Taylor,
Struggle for Mastery in Europe
, p. xxviii.

69.
There is a brief coverage in Kann,
History of the Habsburg Empire
, pp. 461ff; a good survey in Milward and Saul,
Development of the Economies of Continental Europe 1850–1914
, pp. 271ff; and a more sophisticated analysis, comparing the empire with Italy and Spain, in Trebilcock,
Industrialization of the Continental Powers, ch
. 5.

70.
Bairoch, “Europe’s Gross National Product 1800–1975,” p. 287.

71.
L. L. Farrar,
Arrogance and Anxiety: The Ambivalence of German Powers 1849–1914
(Iowa City, Iowa, 1981), ch. 3, fns. 9 and 18. Farrar calculates “power” by multiplying population and manufacturing production. The early section of this present chapter should indicate that power is a much more complex phenomenon.

72.
For comparative growth rates, see Good,
The Economic Rise of the Habsburg Empire 1750–1914
, p. 239; for industrial potential, see Table 17 above.

73.
Figures from Good,
Economic Rise of the Habsburg Empire
, p. 150.

74.
For what follows, see the brilliant description in Stone,
Europe Transformed
, pp. 303ff; Kann,
History of the Habsburg Empire, ch
. 8; C. A. MacArtney,
The Habsburg Empire 1790–1918
(London, 1969), chs. 14–17; A. J. May,
The Habsburg Monarchy 1862–1916
(Cambridge, Mass., 1960), pp. 343ff.

75.
Rothenberg,
Army of Francis Joseph, ch
. 9; Langer,
Diplomacy of Imperialism
, pp. 596–98; and espec. C. Andrew,
Théophile Delcassé and the Making of the Entente Cordiale
(London, 1968), pp. 127ff.

76.
Quoted in Stone,
Europe Transformed
, pp. 316–17; see also Rothenberg,
Army of Francis Joseph
, p. 106.

77.
Wright,
Study of War
, pp. 670–71, columns 10–12; also useful is Rothenberg,
Army of Francis Joseph
, pp. 125–26, 148, 160, 172.

78.
For the state of the Austro-Hungarian navy, see Halpern,
Mediterannean Naval Situation, ch
. 6. The state of the army prior to 1914 is covered in Rothenberg’s excellent
Army of Francis Joseph
, chs. 9-l2; N. Stone, “Moltke and Conrad: Relations between the Austro-Hungarian and German General Staffs 1909–1914,” in Kennedy (ed.),
War Plans of the Great Powers 1880–1914
, pp. 222ff; idem,
The Eastern Front 1914–1917
(London, 1975), ch. 4; idem, “Austria-Hungary,” in May (ed.),
Knowing One’s Enemies
, pp. 37ff.

79.
Rothenberg,
Army of Francis Joseph
, p. 159, also pp. 152, 163.

80.
Ibid., p. 159. And see also Stone, “Moltke and Conrad,” in Kennedy (ed.),
War Plans of the Great Powers
.

81.
Stone, “Austria-Hungary,” p. 52.

82.
See here P. W. Schroeder’s powerful and elegant plea that the Great Powers (Britain especially) should have preserved the Austro-Hungarian Empire in order to save the status quo: “World War I as a Galloping Gertie,”
Journal of Modern History
, vol. 44, no.3 (1972), pp. 319–45. It is not unlike pleading that after 1945 the United States and USSR should have tried to preserve the British Empire in order to avoid subsequent instability in the Third World.

83.
For French foreign policy, see the older work E. M. Carroll,
French Public
Opinion and Foreign Affairs 1880–1914
(London, 1931); G. F. Kennan,
The Decline of Bismarck’s European Order: Franco-Russian Relations 1875–1890
(Princeton, N.J., 1979); Andrew,
Théophile Delcassé and the Making of the Entente Cordiale;
J.F.V. Keiger,
France and the Origins of the First World War
(London, 1983).

84.
There is no comprehensive history of French defense policy in this period; but there are useful details in D. Porch,
The March to the Marne: The French Army 1871–1914
(Cambridge, 1981); P.M. de la Gorce,
The French Army: A Military Political History
(New York, 1963), chs. 1–5; R. D. Challenor,
The French Theory of the Nation in Arms 1866–1939
(New York, 1955); as well as the references in notes 88–89 below.

85.
Marder,
Anatomy of British Sea Power
, pp. 71–3, 86–7, 107–9, 124ff; and the references in Kennedy,
Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism, ch
. 11, fn. 27.

86.
French colonialism and the French colonial empire are covered in A. S. Kanya-Forstner,
The Conquest of the Western Sudan: A Study in French Military Imperialism
(Cambridge, 1969); R. Betts,
Tricouleur: The French Empire
(London, 1978): H. Brunschwig,
French Colonialism, 1871–1916: Myths and Realities
(London, 1966); R. Girardet,
L’idée coloniale en France de 1871 à 1962
(Paris, 1972); J. Ganiage,
L’expansion coloniale de la France sous la Troisième Republique 1871–1914
(Paris, 1968).

87.
For a good summary of this argument, see A. S. Kanya-Forstner, “French Expansion in Africa: The Mythical Theory,” in R. Owen and R. Sutcliffe (eds.),
Studies in the Theory of Imperialism
(London, 1972), pp. 285ff.

88.
French naval policy is covered briefly in Jenkins,
History of the French Navy
, pp. 303ff; Williamson,
Politics of Grand Strategy
, pp. 227ff; Halpern,
Mediterranean Naval Situation
, pp. 47ff; and T. Ropp,
The Development of a Modern Navy: French Naval Policy 1871–1904
(Annapolis, Md., 1987), passim.

89.
This may also explain why so many historians have tended to focus upon civil-military relations in France rather than military policy
per se
. For examples, in addition to the works listed in note 84 above, see R. Girardet,
La société militaire dans la France contemporaine
(Paris, 1953); G. Krumeich,
Armaments and Politics in France on the Eve of the First World War
(Leamington Spa, 1986).

90.
For what follows, see Milward and Saul,
Development of the Economies of Continental Europe 1850–1914, ch
. 2; Kemp,
Industrialization in Nineteenth-Century Europe, ch
. 3; idem,
Economic Forces in French History, ch
. 9; Trebil-cock,
Industrialization of the Continental Powers, ch
. 3 (an excellent and sophisticated survey); Rowley,
Evolution économique de la France du Milieu du XIX
^e
siècle à 1914
, passim; Caron,
Economic History of Modern France
, pt. 1; J. H. Clapham,
The Economic Development of France and Germany, 1815–1914
(Cambridge, 1948); R. Price,
The Economic Modernization of France
(London, 1975).

91.
Kemp,
Industrialization in Nineteenth-Century Europe
, pp. 71–72.

92.
The literature upon French banking and overseas investment is enormous; for a brief summary, see Kindleberger,
Financial History of Western Europe
, pp. 225ff; Trebilcock,
Industrialization of the Continental Powers
, pp. 173ff; R. Cameron,
France and the Economic Development of Europe
(Princeton, 1961), passim. The Russian loans and Franco-Russian diplomacy are covered in R. Girault,
Emprunts russes et investisements français en Russie, 1887–1914
(Paris, 1973); and Krumeich,
Armaments and Politics in France, ch
. 6.

93.
Trebilcock,
Industrialization of the Continental Powers
, p. 182.

94.
Ibid., p. 158.

95.
Bairoch, “Europe’s Gross National Product,” p. 281; idem, “International Industrialization
Levels,” p. 297; Wright,
Study of War
, pp. 670–71. See also the careful comparisons in V. Hentschel, “Produktion, Wachstum and Productivität in England, Frankreich and Deutschland von der Mitte des 19. Jahrhunderts bis zum Ersten Weltkrieg,”
Vierteljahresschrift fur Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte
, vol. 68 (1981), pp. 457–510. All this quite contradicts Stone,
Europe Transformed
, p. 282.

96.
See the overwhelming evidence in Mitchell,
Victors and Vanquished
, chs. 1–5, espec. pp. 109–11.

97.
Porch,
March to the Marne
, p. 227.

98.
For repeated examples of these sort of claims, see E. Weber,
The Nationalist Revival in France, 1905–1916
(Berkeley, Calif., 1959); H. Contamine,
La Revanche, 1871–1914
(Paris, 1957); Krumeich,
Armament and Politics in France
, passim.

99.
Ibid. See also Williamson,
Politics of Grand Strategy
, chs. 5 and 8; B. H. Liddell Hart, “French Military Ideas Before the First World War,” in M. Gilbert (ed.),
A Century of Conflict, 1850–1950
(London, 1966), pp. 133–48.

100.
For what follows, see Andrew,
Théophile Delcassé and the Making of the Entente Cordiale
, passim; Keiger,
France and the Origins of the First World War
, chs. 1 and 4.

101.
J. J. Becker,
1914: Comment les Français sont entrés dans la guerre
(Paris, 1977); J. Joll,
The Origins of the First World War
(London/New York, 1984), ch. 8.

102.
J. Remak, “1914—The Third Balkan War: Origins Reconsidered,” reprinted in Koch (ed.),
Origins of the First World War
, pp. 89–90.

103.
The phrase used first in R. Robinson and J. Gallagher, with A. Denny,
Africa and the Victorian: The Official Mind of Imperialism
(2nd edn., London, 1981). For a discussion of this term, and their other ideas, see P. Kennedy, “Continuity and Discontinuity in British Imperialism 1815–1914,” in C. C. Eldridge (ed.),
British Imperialism in the Nineteenth Century
(London, 1984), pp. 20–38.

104.
See again Bourne,
Britain and the Balance of Power in North America
, passim. For the settlement of these differences, and other aspects of the relationship, see B. Perkins,
The Great Rapprochement
(New York, 1969).

105.
Gillard,
Struggle for Asia
, passim; F. Kazemzadeh,
Russian and Britain in Persia, 1864–1914
(New Haven, Conn., 1968); E. Hölzle,
Die Selbstentmachtung Europas
, pp. 85ff.

106.
L. K. Young,
British Policy in China 1895–1902
(Oxford, 1970); P. Lowe,
Britain in the Far East: A Survey from 1819 to the Present
(London, 1981) chs. 3–4.

107.
Hobsbawm,
Industry and Empire
, p. 150. See also P. J. Cain,
Economic Foundations of British Overseas Expansion 1815–1914
(London, 1980), ch. 9; W. G. Hynes,
The Economics of Empire: Britain, Africa and the New Imperialism, 1870–95
(London, 1979), passim; Cain and Hopkins, “Political Economy of British Expansion Overseas,” pp. 485ff.

108.
For details, see the early chapters of Grenville,
Lord Salisbury and Foreign Policy
.

109.
Marder,
Anatomy of British Sea Power
, passim; Kennedy,
Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery
, chs. 7–8; and J. Gooch,
The Plans of War: The General Staff and British Military Strategy c. 1900–1916
(London, 1974), cover naval and military planning.

110.
In consequence, the literature is enormous and grows each year. Hobsbawm,
Industry and Empire
, pp. 136–53, 172–85; Landes,
Unbound Prometheus
, pp. 326–58; and Mathias,
First Industrial Nation
, pp. 243–52, 306–34, 365–426, are still very instructive. Crouzet,
Victorian Economy
, pp. 371ff, is a succinct new survey.

111.
Cited in Kennedy,
Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism
, p. 315.